Week 5 on the West Side

Conan · Sep 22, 2014

I think I'm getting the hang of this conference; After my first tragic week before I realized what I was in for, I got one right LW (WSU+23 / OR ATS)
It has taken me a while because the dogs have behaved like wild animals pissing on everything in sight to mark territory without a guarantee of winning. Everyone's seen this before but have you seen it as often as it has been this season? The chalk has been incredibly overpriced. Look at these numbers.

Team ....................... W/L ......... ATS
Arizona State ..... 3-0 ..... 1-2
Arizona ........... 4-0 ..... 1-3 .Tied with Oregon & Waashington for 2nd biggest loser SU vs ATS
California ........ 3-0 ..... 2-1 .2nd place for being the most consistent winner SU vs ATS
Colorado .......... 2-2 ..... 2-2
Oregon ............ 4-0 ..... 1-3 .Tied with Washington & Arizona for 2nd biggest loser SU vs ATS
Oregon State ...... 3-0 ..... 1-2
USC ............... 2-1 ..... 2-1 .USC + Stanford
Stanford .......... 2-1 ..... 2-1 .2 1-loss teams with winning records ATS
UCLA .............. 3-0 ..... 0-3 .Biggest loser SU vs ATS
Utah .............. 3-0 ..... 3-0 .Biggest winner SU vs ATS
Washington ........ 4-0 ..... 1-3 .Tied with Oregon & Arizona for 2nd biggest loser SU vs ATS
Washington State .. 2-2 ..... 2-2

...............1 team (Utah) is undefeated ATS
...............Only 4 teams are in the + column ATS
... ...........6 teams are losers ATS with UCLA 0-3
...............8 teams remain undefeated (SU)
...............6 of the 8 undefeated teams are losers ATS

Use great caution when wagering the Pac this year !!

tmader7 · Sep 22, 2014

Well, you always ride the hot hand and SC and the Utes (or is it youths, lol, My Cuz Vinny) are smoking. Wash St. is not living up to expectations, can't remember if it was ESPN mag or somewhere else that had the Cougs flying high this season, passing game was supposed to be great.....and then, Rutgers showed up. But you're right by a landslide, the lines have been incredibly stupid so far.

~T~

GoSooners · Sep 22, 2014

I'm still kicking myself for not taking Wazzu. Oregon banged up on the OL and starting two true freshmen on the road. Wazzu is like Texas Tech. They are terrible in the favorites role, but make them 2+ touchdown dogs and they change personalities. Another good example of it this past week was Indiana. Throw them in there with the other two Sybils..

pathologist · Sep 22, 2014

Glad to see you back, not sure if I have won 1 game playing pac teams ( really pissed at Ucla)

REDEYE · Sep 22, 2014

GoSooners said:
I'm still kicking myself for not taking Wazzu. Oregon banged up on the OL and starting two true freshmen on the road. Wazzu is like Texas Tech. They are terrible in the favorites role, but make them 2+ touchdown dogs and they change personalities. Another good example of it this past week was Indiana. Throw them in there with the other two Sybils..

I posted in someones thread that +23 1/2 was like stealing with the O line woes

NoCoke · Sep 22, 2014

Ok, who is Cal to be giving 10.5 to a conference opponent? I'll hang up and listen.

Conan · Sep 22, 2014

Many people have said that Utah would have been a different team if Travis Wilson could have just stayed healthy. I always agreed with that statement however never had the chance to see it for myself up to now. Some teams take a bigger hit than others do when their starting QB goes down. Apparently Utah is one of them. (UCLA didn't do too badly when Hundley got hurt in Texas... and to think of all that talk about Hundley earlier in the year!!)

KDawgg · Sep 22, 2014

Cal giving 11 is a dangerous prop, I agree. After that disaster can this young team recover? Even if so, these guys have never really been a favorite with the exception of sac st this year and Port st last yr which they didn't cover. Cal is very thin on defense especially in the lb's and db's. Db S McClure is questionable and Db A Sebastian still hasn't fully recovered from his achilles injury that held him out of last season (although he has been playing). Depth is this teams main issue as well as Ol which hasn't been exposed by a good front yet. The Qb Goff, Receivers and dl are very good. Col is well coached and seems to have its running game working. I don't think they are the dl that exposes Cal's Ol (Unless they open up a nice blitz scheme) but this seems like a very good spot for the Buffs.

Disclaimer: Although I am historically strong in Ncaa foots and specifically the Pac, this season has started very poorly for me.

Conan · Sep 22, 2014

OK well Cal is actually 3-1 instead of 3-0 as I had them listed. It doesn't change much of anything other than they are not an undefeated team... which leaves 7 teams unbeaten instead of 8 as I had said. They still are a money maker to this point. But are they 10 points better than the Buffs? Tough question.

Steiner69eR · Sep 22, 2014

Glad to see u back Conan...BOL going forward

tmader7 · Sep 23, 2014

Conan said:
OK well Cal is actually 3-1 instead of 3-0 as I had them listed. It doesn't change much of anything other than they are not an undefeated team... which leaves 7 teams unbeaten instead of 8 as I had said. They still are a money maker to this point. But are they 10 points better than the Buffs? Tough question.

This shit kills me, but since I remember you from way back when, no harm done. They're 3-0 against the line, you have it right my friend, someone, like myself would have pointed out the error if there was one. Cal SUX, period! But then again, so do the Buffs. GL my friend.

~T~

Conan · Sep 23, 2014

An interesting battle of the backups seems to be shaping up in Tempe between UCLA and ASU. I was just reading up on Mike Bercovici in his first start stepping in for Taylor Kelly trying to get a bead on where his head is at and where he stands in relation to his HC Todd Graham and ASU's offense. What impressed me the most was that Bercovici seems perfectly fine with his role as TK's backup with a level of maturity that we don't often see in players that are THIS close to being just where he has wanted to be (the starter) his entire career. But this has not put out the fire burning inside of him that wants to start. See for yourself if you like.

I still can't come up with a convincing angle on this game, but in a situation where the home dog is getting 5 points, and the difference between them doesn't look like a TD, I think the points make more sense than anything else especially if Neuheisel is asked to do another week in relief of Hundley... and then it's not a gimme even if Hundley is put back in the lineup.

DwayneBowe · Sep 23, 2014

Huskies look good this week vs Stanford

GoSooners · Sep 23, 2014

Conan...One angle to the game is UCLA was -7 in the GOY lines. And that was assuming both starting QB's played. But now that ASU has lost their starting QB, if UCLA starts Hundley shouldn't this line be worth more than -5? Seems like it should also be worth more than a TD if that is indeed the case. But it should at least be -7 since ASU's QB was just as valuable to his team as Hundley is to UCLA. Of course this is just talking from a numbers perspective. But what really has changed between these two teams?

Conan · Sep 23, 2014

GoSooners said:
Conan...One angle to the game is UCLA was -7 in the GOY lines. And that was assuming both starting QB's played. But now that ASU has lost their starting QB, if UCLA starts Hundley shouldn't this line be worth more than -5? Seems like it should also be worth more than a TD if that is indeed the case. But it should at least be -7 since ASU's QB was just as valuable to his team as Hundley is to UCLA. Of course this is just talking from a numbers perspective. But what really has changed between these two teams?

One thing that comes to my mind is the play of UCLA's OL which everyone thought would be the strength of the team. Hundley or no Hundley, the answer to that is a resounding NOT! What's on the line in this game is the right to lay claim over everyone else in the south and challenge for the South title. ASU does lose some of Kelly's ability to run the ball, but it wouldn't surprise me to see Bercovici pull off a couple of designed runs anyway. I don't think UCLA's defense would respond well to such a calamity. One thing Bercovici brings into this one that should be expected is a better downfield passing game compared to Kelly. I wouldn't sell the Devil's short here with UCLA's passing defense ranked 87th giving up 255 YPG as it already has. Ether QB could present a problem for the Bruins there. The biggest of all questions to me is can UCLA's OL hold off whatever kind of pressure ASU's revamped DL can bring to bear on whoever starts under center for the Bruins?

Conan · Sep 23, 2014

One more stat: UCLA's OL has already given up 11 sacks this season. Over the last 2 years they've given up 88 of them.

Knightrofins · Sep 23, 2014

Conan,

the pac12 was easier to handicap when the girl in your avatar was wearing a blue shirt. Just sayin'

GoSooners · Sep 23, 2014

Conan said:
One more stat: UCLA's OL has already given up 11 sacks this season. Over the last 2 years they've given up 88 of them.

One positive though with UCLA is they are finally getting their rushing game going. They had over 200 yards rushing on Texas defense. I guarantee you ASU doesn't have Texas defense. Colorado gained 569 yards on them. Plus if Hundley plays, I think this game becomes a much different story and UCLA possibly rolls here.

Conan · Sep 23, 2014

You could be right about Hundley, however I have been waiting all season to see something from him and their OL seems to be the main problem. No doubt Todd Graham's defense will have a few things to say about this one or it won't work. To me at least the OL is the first thing I look at when I set about handicapping a game. It's a tough one to overcome when it sputters. There aren't many things that can add up the right way that can produce the same outcome as winning in the trenches. Just look at what the Ducks are dealing with having 3 of their 4 starting OL out. That's a job for "Mariotaman." But even at that, WSU got to him 5 times last week although he accounted for 5 TD's as the Ducks managed to squeeze one out. But that was strictly a Marcus Mariota thing.

Here's an interesting stat to chew on... Through 4 games this season including 3 vs. WSU, Wyoming and S. Dakota, the Oregon Ducks do not have a single player who has rushed for 100 yards in one game.

MantisToboggan · Sep 23, 2014

Conan said:
One thing that comes to my mind is the play of UCLA's OL which everyone thought would be the strength of the team. Hundley or no Hundley, the answer to that is a resounding NOT! What's on the line in this game is the right to lay claim over everyone else in the south and challenge for the South title. ASU does lose some of Kelly's ability to run the ball, but it wouldn't surprise me to see Bercovici pull off a couple of designed runs anyway. I don't think UCLA's defense would respond well to such a calamity. One thing Bercovici brings into this one that should be expected is a better downfield passing game compared to Kelly. I wouldn't sell the Devil's short here with UCLA's passing defense ranked 87th giving up 255 YPG as it already has. Ether QB could present a problem for the Bruins there. The biggest of all questions to me is can UCLA's OL hold off whatever kind of pressure ASU's revamped DL can bring to bear on whoever starts under center for the Bruins?

Solid points. Berco certainly has a better arm than TK, albeit less accurate. Taylor Kelly's greatest strength in the passing game (outside of his running ability when the play breaks down, was his ability to get the ball to his play makers, Foster and Strong, and let them do what they do best. Kelly has never had anything close to an NFL arm. I'd also add that the loss of Goforth certainly hurts UCLA in the secondary.