Week 5: Confident

[ofred]

Treading water still. Georgia still seemed like the right play, although they played like s**t 1st quarter. Washington won easily, and Baylor played a flat 2nd half (zero points vs. Rice!!!) Now 8-5-2 on large plays.
YTD: 16-23, - 4.45 units


4* Iowa -23.5 I know this one looks suicidal considering Iowa has some injury issues, and Michigan on deck next week. But I really think you're getting a bargain on this spread since Iowa is at home vs. a vastly weaker team. MTSU is a one trick pony. They play swiss cheese defense. They should have lost by 40 to hapless Michigan, but UM gave them 2 short fields on turnovers, and a garbage TD at the end. Then MTSU was losing to a very mediocre Duke team by 30 until giving up a TD in the last minute. MTSU was also neck and neck with FCS weakling, Tenn. State, until the 4th quarter- giving up 466 yards. Iowa is coming off a bye and even though their secondary is banged up, their defense knows that the only good thing MTSU does is throw dink passes in the spread offense. They don't run all that well, throw deep much or play any defense. Iowa will stuff the run anyways, giving up only 76 yds. per game so far. Iowa will be able to gouge huge runs on MTSU, and use the passing game as needed. The Hawkeyes also play special teams well, and avoid silly penalties. Both teams coming off byes.


3* Utah St. -24.5
2* Utah St. -14 1H Another one with big chalk, but CSU is reeling. They will be missing their top WR and top RB, who has an 8 yd/ carry average. The Rams have nothing else to hang their hat on if not their offense. Their staring QB, Collin Hill, is already out for the year, the OL is leaky, and new QB, Pat O'Brien is as close to a statue as you can get. He had a nice game at home vs.an awful Toledo pass defense, but I doubt he replicates that on the road at USU which actually plays defense pretty well, holding SD St. to 3 points going into the 4th quarter@ SDSU, and holding them to 2.0 ypc. CSU will also have major issues defending Utah State's Jordan Love, and their nice balance of run/pass. CSU also has injuries on the DL, an already mediocre unit. Utah State put up 600 yards on Wake Forest on the road, and their D is so-so, but CSU is a possible bottom D of the Mt. West.

 

[ofred]

4* BYU/ Toledo- over 60.5 BYU has played a brutal schedule so far, and going against this Toledo defense will be a chance to break out offensively. Actually, BYU performed fairly well offensively considering their defensive opponents. Defensively, they got problems. Their pass defense has given up a 73.5% pass completion pct, and often have a hard time tackling after the catch. I like Toledo's offense. They spread out, with their QB using a run/ pass option on many plays. I think it'll be difficult for BYU to prepare for. BYU might also be a bit worn out defensively considering their schedule. Toledo, like CSU, give up a lot of big plays on D. They don't mind taking risks defensively, and often seem to be willing to trade scores back and forth, hoping to win the game by outscoring their opponents. I know BYU lost Ty'son Williams for the year, but I think that'll make them more pass happy in the short term, and Zach Wilson has been battle-tested, can make the big play, and I think he ha sone of those 350-400 yard games here.

Like the card this week, and have a few more large plays coming.

 

[ofred]

1* Navy +7 1H Navy looks much improved this season, especially offensively. They are becoming more unpredictable, mixing in the pass more often. Also, I think Memphis has had a hard time in past years defending these option teams. Hard to practice for them mid-season. Navy's long drives could play keep-away at least for a half.

1* Air Force -11 1H Got a feeling San Jose is a little off after their surprise upset of Arkansas last week. Air Force didn't cover last week vs. Boise, but impressed me on both sides of the ball. San Jose will not stop AF offense, and even the game bet looks tempting.

 

[Skeeter123]

ofred, always love the write-ups. Hope you crush it this week!

GL
:toast:

 

[Kaboom]

BOL Fred !!!

 

[Knightrofins]

Good luck this week.

That Washington play week was beautiful!!

 

[indiana]

Fred......here's to a solid weekend buddy....on Utah St. and BYU Over with you....BOL with all your action...…..indy

 

[ofred]

1* Maryland +6.5 Don't generally like too many pre-Saturday games, but I think Maryland has a decent chance to win here at home on a Friday night. Yes, I know PSU has owned Maryland the past few years. Yet I think Maryland has a little payback here, thinking that the Nittany Lions have embarrassed them the past 2 years- needlessly. Maryland can actually play some defense now, they can tackle, and that's a big step up for this team. I also think they make some adjustments to protect QB Josh Jackson better after the Temple game. Love their running game, and could see in the Syracuse game (unthinkable in the past), that the Terps have the killer instinct.

Penn State has the better talent, but they have not played very well vs. weak opponents. Squeaked by a Pitt team that is inconsistent, out yarded by Buffalo by 70 yards even though UB has lost most of their offensive talent. Beat Idaho badly-so what. QB Sean Clifford has enjoyed 3 games of home cooking, and yet has looked nervous or jumpy in the pocket. He is quite talented, but is missing receivers, staring at primary WRs, and making decisions that seem to say he's young and inexperienced. Penn State's offensive stats skewed by the weakness of their opponents Ds. Maryland does more than hang around Friday, they win or lose a close one.

 

[ofred]

1.5* Alabama -24 1H Taking Alabama first half has been a steady moneymaker the last 2-3 years- but not so much this season. Glad I have laid off until now. Nick Saban is making a joke surely when he says that this Ole Miss squad is the best team they've faced this year. South Carolina was on the road, and they would throttle this Ole Miss team. Alabama does not have their best defense or running game of recent years, but the passing offense is (in my opinion) truly extraordinary. And this attacks one of Ole Miss' worst units. They have looked nearly hopeless vs. a weak Cal passing game, and gave up a ton of yards in the air to SE Louisiana. Likely reasons: Ole Miss' secondary is doing much of the tackling on run plays, and pass coverage is suffering…bad angles to the ball, poor execution and communication of the DBs, and tackling after the catch has been poor. I also think Ole Miss knows that the Cal loss makes them unlikely to qualify for a bowl game- considering their upcoming schedule and 2-2 record. They might be a bit deflated 1st half here while Alabama gets their 1st conference game at home. Saban and his coaches played last week's S. Miss game like an exhibition, with 2nd and 3rd stringers playing often. This game is what matters. Doesn't matter much if Matt Corral plays for Ole Miss with his bruised ribs. His backup is healthy, and although a true freshman, he might be about as good. Only concern and why it's only a 1.5*- one Ole Miss score, lucky or not, can ruin these large 1H spreads. We've all seen it before.

 

[ofred]

2* Auburn/ Miss. State- under 46.5 Bo Nix has not been the savior for Auburn in their great start. Their defense has been. Against A&M they were relentless after the ball carrier, tackled like NFLers, and might just be the best college D in the country. Very tempted to take the -10 here except I still think Gus is playing it careful with Bo Nix. Auburn is run and short pass oriented, and this is a good thing. Their D will keep them in every game, or better, and Nix can develop with a smaller playbook and realistic expectations. Even though Miss. State has lost a lot of talent on their defense, they still have a strong LB corps, and Auburn's conservative offense keeps them from getting scored upon too often. MSU QB Tommy Stevens might play, but likely won't last long. Freshman Shrader is not yet a dual threat as his passing game is definitely not there, and I think his wheels get disabled vs. this Auburn DL. Love the Auburn secondary, and can't see the Bulldogs scoring more than 7-13 points here.

 

[ofred]

1* Indiana TT- under 14.5 (-125) Indiana will have to get mighty lucky to score more than 2 TDs at Michigan State. They don't really do anything that well offensively, and MSU can eat a lot of clock offensively denying Indiana the ball. The Spartans loss to ASU was a semi-fluke. Won't happen again, at home, to a weaker team this season.

 

[ofred]

3* FSU -4.5 1H
1* FSU TT over 17 1H I completely don't trust FSU to finish this game well, but they might. And if wins and losses were decided by first half performances, Florida State would be highly ranked. I like that FSU gets NC State at home here at night. I also like that NC State is a very young roster, with about 50% of it being freshman or redshirt freshman. NC State is also missing some key players to injuries. FSU may or may not have QB James Blackmon. He has looked more mobile in later in the week practices, but even if he doesn't go, Alex Hornibrook will suffice. With Cam Akers and the FSU run game, Hornibrook won't be counted on for carrying the day, although last game, he played very well completing 75% of his passes for 255 yards.

NC State really has issues, youth being one of them. They looked listless 2nd half vs. Ball State, and were out yarded by them for the game. West Virgina, another rebuilding team, blew them out. So NC State's record is built upon beating 2 early cream puffs, and squeaking by Ball St. QB Matthew Mckay looks shaky, and although he hasn't been plagued by TOs, he has also been inaccurate. I think in Tallahassee, in this frenetic atmosphere at night, he'll start slow. NC State's best unit, their running game, has padded the stats more vs. weak defenses (not WVU). Putting money on FSU is a hold your nose play, as many bettors have been burned over the past few years, but this is a good spot for them 1H.

 

[ofred]

Last large play(probably):

3* SMU -7(-125) Was trying to decide how much to lay on this game, in which I really like SMU, and saw how road teams Duke and PSU dominated Friday, and thought it very well could happen here. USF hasn't had a quality win since Game 2 of 2018, when they beat Ga. Tech. Charlie Strong has a reputation of allowing his players to coast by on their raw talent. He is also a bit of a coddler to his players, more of a kind, supportive dad than a coach who wants to get the most of out of his team to win. They look fairly inept this season, getting crushed by Wisconsin in a game that could have been 60-0. Lost to a completely rebuilt team, Ga. Tech, and finally broke the skid by beating SC State, an FCS team that is mid-level in a weak conference. And SC State got almost 400 yards on USF, but the 8 turnovers did them in. Yes 8-0 in TOs. So I'm not buying the new freshman QB, McCloud, being a savior based on that game. Their OL has been just awful, and SMU has a good D front and is 7th in the FBS in sacks. By recruiting standards and being at home, USF has the edge, and yet SMU seems to have the overwhelming edge everywhere else.

SMU's offense is explosive(at about 500 yards/ game and no FCS opponents), and beating TCU @TCU by scoring 41 points is almost unthinkable vs. a Gary Patterson defense. SMU also has multiple defensive sets that will be difficult for freshman McCloud to audible against, or know what to do in the heat of the moment. SMU can't win by defensively dominating, but this has worked well for them, also limiting the high scoring UNT offense. I kind of look at this game like a KC Chiefs game. USF will score occasionally, but won't be able to keep up with SMU's output. Looking at their GT and Wisconsin games combined, they had only 400 yards TOTAL OFFENSE- and some of that was in garbage time. Shane Buechele has a 152 QBR so far this year, and his running game has been instrumental in SMU's success. Another factor is that SMU has looked at each game as a one game season, which might help with not looking ahead or celebrating a win too much. A large part of this play is that I just don't think Charlie Strong will prepare his team, and will make mistakes during it that will hurt USF. If you've watched USF the past 2 years, you know what I mean.

 

[ofred]

All .5*, although some are a little less in $ for me.

Virginia +11 Virginia gets ND after the Georgia game, and one of ND's few let-down games that we see every year. Virginia defense and QB Perkins keep them viable in almost any game (except Clemson)

Charlotte/ FAU - over 65.5 Just got a feeling that FAU finally explodes offensively vs. a weak Charlotte D. Charlotte also can score on big plays. Score could be in the 80-90 range.

Stanford/ Oregon St.- under 56 Cold and wet in Corvallis Saturday, and Stanford has to win this with their defense. I think the Beavers offense is overrated, and the D slightly improved.

UCLA +6 Has DRT turned the corner for UCLA? We'll see, but Arizona's D is worse that Wazzu's, so UCLA can maybe score big numbers again.

Oklahoma St. -4.5 OKie State and Mike Gundy end the K. State winning streak. I still think KS has a 6-5 type season. Love the Cowboys offense.

UConn (just a lean) +43.5 UConn just has to have a pulse to cover this. C'mon Huskies, you can't be that bad.

 

[indiana]

Fred......have a great day tomorrow buddy...…..indy

 

[ofred]

Fred......have a great day tomorrow buddy...…..indy

Thanks Indy. I know my card is ridiculously large, but I have one more play coming.

 

[ofred]

.5 TCU -14 (-120) Just a small play. TCU at home coming off a loss, while Kansas has played better than expected their last 2 games. Progression/ Regression to the mean play. TCU just doesn't have the QB play to shine in the Big 12, but this should be a convincing win vs. a Kansas team that has 2 good RBs, but not much more. TCU run defense is very good, and should handle that.

 

[TimmyRules]

To a winning day

And as always, thanks for the write ups.

 

[ofred]

Upping Oklahoma State to a 1*. Kansas State has not faced an offense this good, by far. I also think K State's offense will struggle on 3rd downs. Their win at MSU helped a lot by a kickoff return and turnovers.