Congrats to all of my friends and enemies who rode out the Vikings -3 with me last week and even my other plays that went 5-2 for + 9 units. Joe Public and his buddy John Q. Public were in love with the Panthers after their amazing wins over San Diego and Chicago and couldn't imagine in their wildest dreams 15 year NFL vet Gus Freotte beating them.
Week 4
KC Chiefs + 9.5 ( wait it out and you might get + 10, I didn't buy yet).
If you like the Cheifs, wait as long as you can until kickoff because the public is eating Denver at over a 70 percent clip.
Denver = overvalued, people will pay extra to bet Denver
KC = undervalued, people are avoiding them at all costs
Overvalued + undervalued = a good recipe to win money
Denver has the #1 offense in the league and is 3-0. If that isn’t tempting enough for Joe Public, then I don’t know what is. I am actually 2-0 betting on Broncos games. I took the Bronocs in their week 1 romping of the Raiders on MNF, and I took the Chargers +1.5 on the road in Denver for the ½ point win. The public loves offense, and they love winners. The Broncos should NOT have beat SD with two gift calls from the ref ( 1 early on, and a late Cutler fumble that would have ended the game). I am impressed with a young Jay Cutler, I love shanny, but I don't like them to cover this week.
KC has looked like the worst team in the league with 3rd stringer Tyler Thigpen, but now they are getting Damon Huard back. The public hates KC and many people see them as the worst team in the league. I’ve always felt that if you are going to run a boring, low risk, conservative offense, why not just have a Vet game manager? That is exactly what the ultra conservative Herm is doing this week, he wants Huard to start because he is less prone to turnovers than Thigpen.
Denver does have a good offense ( actually #1 right now), the thing that Joe Public is overlooking is that the Broncos have given up an average of 425 yards on defense and 8.9 per pass ( terrible).
Herman Edwards formula in games where he is an underdog is to run the ball, stay conservative, keep it close and try and win the game at the end. That is a PERFECT formula for a 9.5 point home underdog to cover a point spread.
Double Digit home dogs are just one of this historical plays that don’t look good, but will win at 60% or better.
KC with Thigpen is probably the worst team in the league but they are NOT with Damon Huard, and they are NOT playing this rivarly game at Arrowhead. Forget about the Chiefs getting crapped on because 3rd string thigpen's chiefs are very different than with Huard. You are getting extra points on this one. The Chiefs nearly beat NE on the road in week 1 ( but failed at the Goal line and lost by 7, and now the Chiefs find themselves nearly double digit dogs at home vs an overvalued Denver team.
pfootball@blogspot.com
Week 4
KC Chiefs + 9.5 ( wait it out and you might get + 10, I didn't buy yet).
If you like the Cheifs, wait as long as you can until kickoff because the public is eating Denver at over a 70 percent clip.
Denver = overvalued, people will pay extra to bet Denver
KC = undervalued, people are avoiding them at all costs
Overvalued + undervalued = a good recipe to win money
Denver has the #1 offense in the league and is 3-0. If that isn’t tempting enough for Joe Public, then I don’t know what is. I am actually 2-0 betting on Broncos games. I took the Bronocs in their week 1 romping of the Raiders on MNF, and I took the Chargers +1.5 on the road in Denver for the ½ point win. The public loves offense, and they love winners. The Broncos should NOT have beat SD with two gift calls from the ref ( 1 early on, and a late Cutler fumble that would have ended the game). I am impressed with a young Jay Cutler, I love shanny, but I don't like them to cover this week.
KC has looked like the worst team in the league with 3rd stringer Tyler Thigpen, but now they are getting Damon Huard back. The public hates KC and many people see them as the worst team in the league. I’ve always felt that if you are going to run a boring, low risk, conservative offense, why not just have a Vet game manager? That is exactly what the ultra conservative Herm is doing this week, he wants Huard to start because he is less prone to turnovers than Thigpen.
Denver does have a good offense ( actually #1 right now), the thing that Joe Public is overlooking is that the Broncos have given up an average of 425 yards on defense and 8.9 per pass ( terrible).
Herman Edwards formula in games where he is an underdog is to run the ball, stay conservative, keep it close and try and win the game at the end. That is a PERFECT formula for a 9.5 point home underdog to cover a point spread.
Double Digit home dogs are just one of this historical plays that don’t look good, but will win at 60% or better.
KC with Thigpen is probably the worst team in the league but they are NOT with Damon Huard, and they are NOT playing this rivarly game at Arrowhead. Forget about the Chiefs getting crapped on because 3rd string thigpen's chiefs are very different than with Huard. You are getting extra points on this one. The Chiefs nearly beat NE on the road in week 1 ( but failed at the Goal line and lost by 7, and now the Chiefs find themselves nearly double digit dogs at home vs an overvalued Denver team.
pfootball@blogspot.com
hno:....
