Week 4 Stinkers

Michelangelo · Oct 1, 2015

16-11 +443

Thursday night:

Pitts +3 -115 (vs Balty)

Since 2001 Divisional Week 4 Road Favs have the edge on Week 4 Home Dogs 18-13. But I'm going with the Home pup here.

The Ravens lost three games despite getting two defensive TDs (one in each of 2 games). So their scoring totals are bloated.

Tonight they go against the #3 passing offense. Sure Big Ben is integral to that standing. But I like veteran bench QBs who have been around the game for a long time in rescue roles like this. The Balty D gave up 351 yds to the Raiders and 372 to the Bengals. I think the dogcatcher Michael Vick gets his share. Don't forget that he gets to play off the 2014 leading running back, LeVeon Bell who will be suiting up for only his second game.

And don't overlook the Pittsburgh D. They held New England to 28 in New England and Saint Louis to 6 in St Louis. This D needs to be recognized.

Thanks

Michelangelo · Oct 1, 2015

Add:

Balty / Pit Under 44 -110

Michelangelo · Oct 4, 2015

1-0-1 Thursday
YTD 17-11-1

Week 4 since 2001

HF 62
RD 56
RF 39
HD 40

Non Divisional Home Favorites get the edge this week at 47-36 since 2001.

This week's Non Divisional Home Favorites are:

Atlanta -5' -102 (vs Hou)
Buffalo -6 +100 (vs NYG)
Cincy -3' +108 (vs KCy)
San Diego -6' -102 (vs Clev)
Denver -7 +108 (vs Minny)
New Orleans -3' +107 (vs Dal)
Seattle -10 +107 (vs Det) (Monday)

///

My Picks:

Atlanta -5'
4 sacks in 3 games for JJ Watt and Javeon Clowney. 7 sacks against the Texans. This team would be 0-3 if a young Tampa team, their opponent last week, didn't shoot themselves in the foot so many, many times. Now they are going into the Georgia Dome to face a Falcons team who has been lined as dogs in all three of their games and has won all three outright. Expect that place to rock for what I expect to be a Falcon blowout.

Chicago +3' -107 (vs Oak)
Green Bay, Arizona, and Seattle. You are likely looking at the NFC Championship there. Well those are the Bears first three opponents. Now Home Dogs to Oakland? Naw. Back in their class today. Play on Home Underdogs off b to b losses of 20+ points. Since 2004 they are 17-7 ATS. 5-0 ATS if lined as +3 or +3'. (Thank you Thomas and beejmi)

more coming

Michelangelo · Oct 4, 2015

Add:

Jacksonville +4 -109 (@ Indy)
Although you wouldn't know it after getting beat 17-51 by the cheating, beating Patriots last week, Jacksonville is improving. Indy is going backwards. Infighting between the coach and the GM is taking it's toll.
Jacksonville, who only won nine games over the past three years, already has a win this year. They are 6-3 ATS when on the road in the Division in those three years. Today, Indy without Luck, will be all out to wrestle with these Jaguars.

Michelangelo · Oct 4, 2015

Add:

Tampa Bay +3 +106 (vs Car)
So Carolina beat three teams who have a combined record of 2-7. Now they are road favorites? The last time Tampa was home was on opening day when they were embarrassed by Marcus Mariotta 14-42. Last week they screwed up opportunity after opportunity before succumbing in Houston. I think they finally get it together for their overrated Divisional rival today.

Grindstone30 · Oct 4, 2015

Love TB and Bears GL M

Michelangelo · Oct 4, 2015

Add:

NYG +6 -105 (@ Buff)
Rex Ryan is still bellyaching about the cheating, beating Patriot loss two weeks later. Er, Rex. It's about your downstate rival, the New York Giants coming to town this week. The Giants went into Dallas with a healthy Tony Romo and Dez Bryant and played 'em within one point when Eli told his RB to take a dive at the 1" line when a score would have locked that game up for the G-men. Buffalo? They beat the two phoniest teams in the NFL this year, Miami and Indy. I'll take the guys from Downstate.

Michelangelo · Oct 4, 2015

Best of luck to you, Grindstone.

Michelangelo · Oct 4, 2015

Adding this one in now even though the start is at 8:30.

Dallas +3 +105 (@ N'Awlins)
Breeze, sneeze. Get the brown paper bags out. The Saints musta been consorting with the devils 'cause they've lost their wings. The Aints are 0-6 SU and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 SuperDome games. The Cowpokes, meanwhile, are 9-0 SU and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 road games. No Romo? No Bryant? No sweat.

Michelangelo · Oct 5, 2015

yest 4-2 +200
YTD 21-13-1 +743

Tough loss in the StupidDome last night. What were the odds of not getting at least a push with New Orleans lining up for a chip shot FG with under a minute to go? Shit happens.

Monday:

Seattle -10 -103 (vs Det)

So the nonDivisional Home Favorites that were 47-36 since 2001 went 3-3 yesterday. The last one goes tonight. That being Seattle. Edge Seattle.

Add the fact that with Russell Wilson behind center, Seattle is 7-0 SU and ATS in Home spotlight games.

They are also 23-2 SU and 19-6 in all Russell Wilson's regular season Home games.

Detroit? They just aren't much on Offense or Defense. Stafford has 5 TDs and 6 turnovers. Minnesota ran for 199 yds on them two weeks ago.

And Seattle has a shiny new weapon by the name of Thomas Rawls who is averaging 6.1 y/p/c with most of his work coming last week vs Chicago.

Cam Chancellor will be back at safety for his second week. Jimmy Graham finally got worked into the offense last week. And Marshawn Lynch won't be there screwing up short yardage situations (ha).

Shawks easy.

lumpy · Oct 5, 2015

Pretty astute observations on your four winners and not really wrong on Dallas, they should have been a push at worst. Carolina may be doing it with smoke and mirrors, but they seem to be doing it. Glad you like the Hawks tonight. It was them or lay off tonight because have gotten tired of trying to win bets with bad teams and Detroit is a bad team.