just wondering why you like jacksonville
I would say defensively the jags are far superior to Tennessee (who scored 17 points on the colts) but offensively they will have to score more than their average of under 12 points per game to keep up with the colts average of 33 points per game.
even with the colts D being weakened and with a home crowd (giving the jags -6 additional points maybe on their average of 12 [18]) then the colts would have to score only half of their average just to keep it close...
I dont think you earn 17 and 27 points off of the pats and the titans (and 31 vs the pack) just by getting lucky.
Im not saying the depleeted secondary wont be a factor but how much could it really be?
Leftwich - 147 yards vs the bills without milloy and 124 and 120 vs the titans and broncos... None of those outings really overly impressive wouldnt you agree?
Having said all that - I would try to get it bought down to -3 if I were to go with indy
but the question that I want answered is what impact will an even more weakened secondary of indy have and will leftwich and his noname receivers be able to capitalize on that and overcome what is certain week in and week out to be a good offensive performance by the colts
GL
I would say defensively the jags are far superior to Tennessee (who scored 17 points on the colts) but offensively they will have to score more than their average of under 12 points per game to keep up with the colts average of 33 points per game.
even with the colts D being weakened and with a home crowd (giving the jags -6 additional points maybe on their average of 12 [18]) then the colts would have to score only half of their average just to keep it close...
I dont think you earn 17 and 27 points off of the pats and the titans (and 31 vs the pack) just by getting lucky.
Im not saying the depleeted secondary wont be a factor but how much could it really be?
Leftwich - 147 yards vs the bills without milloy and 124 and 120 vs the titans and broncos... None of those outings really overly impressive wouldnt you agree?
Having said all that - I would try to get it bought down to -3 if I were to go with indy
but the question that I want answered is what impact will an even more weakened secondary of indy have and will leftwich and his noname receivers be able to capitalize on that and overcome what is certain week in and week out to be a good offensive performance by the colts
GL
jaypaw, jax is strictly a system play.
system applies for jax and hou this week, and it is a system in which the dogs win outright in 73.45 % of games and cover in 86 % of games in last 9 yrs, which is huge. however, hou also qualify for another huge dog system, which is 86 % su and 97 % ats in last 5 years.
i know indiana's offense is simply unstoppable, but this system applies to this kind of matchups. strong offensive vs strong defensive.
i believe both teams will win outright, but since i'm wagering a huge amount of money on houston, i decided to get some insurance with the extra point (to have that extra fg to work with).
system applies for jax and hou this week, and it is a system in which the dogs win outright in 73.45 % of games and cover in 86 % of games in last 9 yrs, which is huge. however, hou also qualify for another huge dog system, which is 86 % su and 97 % ats in last 5 years.
i know indiana's offense is simply unstoppable, but this system applies to this kind of matchups. strong offensive vs strong defensive.
i believe both teams will win outright, but since i'm wagering a huge amount of money on houston, i decided to get some insurance with the extra point (to have that extra fg to work with).
Last edited:
PR Ratings -
I like the feel of your picks. I lean with the GB/NYG over, but I would rather bet GB over 24.5 or so. NYG O-line will have to hold up v. all sorts of blitzes, and may crumble or at least not give Warner much time. If Favre is 85%+ healthy here, I think the Packers roll...bouncing off the R-A-R-E home loss to a team as lowly as the Bears and the offensive juggernaut from Indy. Remember, Giants scored just 20 while benefitting from SEVEN TOs v. Washington and their offense looked fine last week, but the Browns have ZERO defenders on the field right now. 34-17 feels about right. Favre mini-revenge v. Warner for playoff loss at STL.
I like the feel of your picks. I lean with the GB/NYG over, but I would rather bet GB over 24.5 or so. NYG O-line will have to hold up v. all sorts of blitzes, and may crumble or at least not give Warner much time. If Favre is 85%+ healthy here, I think the Packers roll...bouncing off the R-A-R-E home loss to a team as lowly as the Bears and the offensive juggernaut from Indy. Remember, Giants scored just 20 while benefitting from SEVEN TOs v. Washington and their offense looked fine last week, but the Browns have ZERO defenders on the field right now. 34-17 feels about right. Favre mini-revenge v. Warner for playoff loss at STL.
I agree Collins is probably going to be a decent upgrade over Gannon in this system. He was one of the top ranked quarterbacks in the preseason, albeit going against 2nd stringers, but I still feel their offense is going to be strong with him at the helm. And their defense is playing very well as well, Houston will not score much on these guys, trust me. :heh: lol
I agree, both Indy and Oakland are superior than their opponents next week, but...I just have to go with that system. Can't really reveal what it is about, or how it works, but it has been amazing over the years. I spent the entire morning today checking the boxscores for the games where this system applied in the past and the dogs dominated in almost every game. And in those few where they got 'lucky' wins, they were stil able to win the turnover battle by 2 or 3 turnovers. Trust me, there is something special about this system. I'm not telling you to jump all over the Texans and the Jags, but if you like Indy and Oakland, my advice for you is THINK TWICE before you pull the trigger ! Good luck !
I wouldn't touch the spread on this Raiders v Texans game as I think it can go either way. I do like over 42 points, tho.
Following Oakland closely here in the bay area, I can tell you this, Gannon being hurt is viewed as a blessing in disguise to many. One of Oakland's strengths is their young WR corps, and Collins ability to throw not only deep passes, but passes to the sidelines, will help the Raiders offense immensely. Houston at home, however, will be no pushover. I dont think they'll have a lot of problems moving the ball on the Raiders, especially in the passing game where Carr is finally coming into his own. Phillip Buchanan is undersized and Andre Johnson, Corey Bradford, and Jabar Gaffney are all over 6 feet tall. (Johnson is 6"3')
The Raiders defense performed well the last two weeks, but that was against the BIlls and Bucs, teams with sub-par offenses. Houston will have the best offense the Raiders have faced this season.
D. Davis was held out of practice on Wednesday, but the ankle sprain does not appear to be too severe. He should play on Sunday and do well against a Raiders defense that was handled by Duce Staley in Week 1.
I'm on the over 42 on this one.
Following Oakland closely here in the bay area, I can tell you this, Gannon being hurt is viewed as a blessing in disguise to many. One of Oakland's strengths is their young WR corps, and Collins ability to throw not only deep passes, but passes to the sidelines, will help the Raiders offense immensely. Houston at home, however, will be no pushover. I dont think they'll have a lot of problems moving the ball on the Raiders, especially in the passing game where Carr is finally coming into his own. Phillip Buchanan is undersized and Andre Johnson, Corey Bradford, and Jabar Gaffney are all over 6 feet tall. (Johnson is 6"3')
The Raiders defense performed well the last two weeks, but that was against the BIlls and Bucs, teams with sub-par offenses. Houston will have the best offense the Raiders have faced this season.
D. Davis was held out of practice on Wednesday, but the ankle sprain does not appear to be too severe. He should play on Sunday and do well against a Raiders defense that was handled by Duce Staley in Week 1.
I'm on the over 42 on this one.
what is it that you cant reveal to let us in on at least some of the rough logic in picking it? Is it historical trends? is it something with the way the stars align?
Im an inclined to listen and be an active part in what can be a productive discussion but the second you say you dont wanna reveal something it makes me question why you bother posting here at all. I'll be glad to follow the system but if your motivations are to no reveal anything with the purposes of turing it into something you can sell - then I suggest you be up front with us and save the bulk of us a lot of time so we know to take your words for what they are worth.
Dont take me wrong I'm always happy to have a productive discussion and if Ive misinterpreted your statement please forvige me - I just get sick of other people posting to a "DISCUSSION" forum then not wanting to discuss in the forum...
GL though either way
Im an inclined to listen and be an active part in what can be a productive discussion but the second you say you dont wanna reveal something it makes me question why you bother posting here at all. I'll be glad to follow the system but if your motivations are to no reveal anything with the purposes of turing it into something you can sell - then I suggest you be up front with us and save the bulk of us a lot of time so we know to take your words for what they are worth.
Dont take me wrong I'm always happy to have a productive discussion and if Ive misinterpreted your statement please forvige me - I just get sick of other people posting to a "DISCUSSION" forum then not wanting to discuss in the forum...
GL though either way
PRatings said:
jaypaw and shaggy
It is just a system with a very good winning procentage for nfl dogs.It is something I discovered two years ago, and followed ever since.
I did not buy that system, and i have no intention of selling it.
it has a lot to do with the following:
1)road favs after winning and scoring 30+ as home favs vs teams after winning as underdogs and allowing 21 and less.
2)the turnovers
and in houston's case, opponent revenge win the week before
Hope it helps.
Good luck this week guys.
It is just a system with a very good winning procentage for nfl dogs.It is something I discovered two years ago, and followed ever since.
I did not buy that system, and i have no intention of selling it.
it has a lot to do with the following:
1)road favs after winning and scoring 30+ as home favs vs teams after winning as underdogs and allowing 21 and less.
2)the turnovers
and in houston's case, opponent revenge win the week before
Hope it helps.
Good luck this week guys.
So in Jacksonville - Indy comes in having won as a home favorite the week before vs green bay - scoring 45 points
and the week before that indy won as dogs (vs tennessee) and held tennessee to 17 points... (less than 21 pts)
Now they are a road favorite in Jacksonville - but the implication is that jacksonville will cover because:
Indy beat green bay by a lot at home and the week before (as dogs) held tennessee to under 3 TDs ?
I dont see the relationship between how much indy scored last week, as compared to how much their opponent scored the week before that - do you?
But hey if it works then it must be a good one - so I wish you luck with it.
keep up the good work!
and the week before that indy won as dogs (vs tennessee) and held tennessee to 17 points... (less than 21 pts)
Now they are a road favorite in Jacksonville - but the implication is that jacksonville will cover because:
Indy beat green bay by a lot at home and the week before (as dogs) held tennessee to under 3 TDs ?
I dont see the relationship between how much indy scored last week, as compared to how much their opponent scored the week before that - do you?
But hey if it works then it must be a good one - so I wish you luck with it.
keep up the good work!
PR ...check your math ...you don't cyfer very well
Pro FB selections ... wk 1 u went 3- 5 posted 9/6/4 12:41 am ... U claimed 4-0 for the week ...wk 2 U went 4-3 posted 9/18/04 8:43 pm ... U claimed 8-3 for the 2 week ...actual 7-8 .... week 3 U went 5- 3 for a three wk total of 12-11... week post was 9/20 8:39 pm ... now you are claiming a 13-8 record for the three weeks ....The only record keeper worse than that was the CFO for Enron ....Good luck with this weeks picks
Pro FB selections ... wk 1 u went 3- 5 posted 9/6/4 12:41 am ... U claimed 4-0 for the week ...wk 2 U went 4-3 posted 9/18/04 8:43 pm ... U claimed 8-3 for the 2 week ...actual 7-8 .... week 3 U went 5- 3 for a three wk total of 12-11... week post was 9/20 8:39 pm ... now you are claiming a 13-8 record for the three weeks ....The only record keeper worse than that was the CFO for Enron ....Good luck with this weeks picks
:increibledwax said:Pro FB selections ... wk 1 u went 3- 5 posted 9/6/4 12:41 am ... U claimed 4-0 for the week ...wk 2 U went 4-3 posted 9/18/04 8:43 pm ... U claimed 8-3 for the 2 week ...actual 7-8 .... week 3 U went 5- 3 for a three wk total of 12-11... week post was 9/20 8:39 pm ... now you are claiming a 13-8 record for the three weeks ....The only record keeper worse than that was the CFO for Enron ....Good luck with this weeks picks
