Week 3

[ofred]

Last week 4-2 on larger plays, 2-1 on smaller plays. One small for Friday:

Kansas -9 UNLV getting lots of bets although the line has moved slightly the other way. Public dogs on weekday games are iffy plays for me. UNLV beat the worst team in the BIG 12, Houston, week 1...although they didn't exhibit much of a passing game. Last week's crushing of Utah Tech not a good indicator of how good they are. Utah Tech is FCS garbage. It's possible that UNLV is a good running team, and not much more. I'll take Kansas off their loss last week to Illinois. HC Leipold is one of those great under the radar coaches that motivates and teaches well. Last year, off a loss to Texas, Kansas slaughtered UCF. Off a loss to Okie State, they knocked off #6 Oklahoma. Jalon Daniels committed 4 TOs last week, but that is NOT his MO. He'll be fine. Kansas looks like a complete team that might only lose a few games this season- and at home.

 

[LonghornMM]

Totally agree, Fred. I also like Kansas team total over as well. They will get it going on Friday night.

 

[ShortBusDriver7]

what about how strongly Houston played Oklahoma on the road?

 

[ofred]

what about how strongly Houston played Oklahoma on the road?

Good to see you in the forum. You've been around a long time. Oklahoma might have a decent D, but their offense very well could be mediocre. Still, Houston played impressively, and yet they are at the bottom of a Big 12 along with a few others that are really not bad teams. These bottom teams could all be champs in the MAC or Conf. USA. Houston seems to be w/o a run game, has a rebuilt OL and a thin WR corp.

 

[ShortBusDriver7]

Appreciate the reply. Yeah the UNLV performance on road vs Houston looked even better after that Oklahoma game. That was my angle for the Q and musing over tonight's #

Unlv is the type that seems like they could backdoor a TD+ spread

 

[ofred]

Iowa -23 Last week's meltdown 2nd half vs. a veteran solid Iowa State team should not concern Iowa for this game. Big 10 games yes. QB situation is in flux and McNamara could lose his job. But Iowa still has a great D that causes turnovers, a special teams advantage, home field crowd, etc. And their running game should romp vs. a Troy team starting over on both sides of the ball. Troy also has some injuries that'll be a factor. Some on the Iowa 1H -13

Tennessee -13.5 1Q (-125) The only way this doesn't cover is if Kent gets the ball first and gets a few 1st downs. But Kent is terrible, as in Temple terrible. I can't see them having any success offensively.

Tulane +13 (-113) This goes down as a play against an Oklahoma offense/ QB that I think will struggle all season. Tulane has a slight chance for an upset here. Oklahoma has a good D, but that is never enough when giving up points like this. Tulane moved the ball fairly easily vs. K State last week.

Wisconsin +16 The Badgers have a better QB situation that Iowa, but Van Dyke will have to play better than last week. Alabama's next game, in 2 weeks, is Georgia. I'm just betting that Alabama is going to have a tough time in Camp Randall Stadium. Fickel has not delivered yet, but I think he's an excellent coach, with a good staff. Got to think Wisconsin is more motivated than Bama.

Memphis +7 (-120) FSU might be overdue for a win, but if you've watched them play, I can't see much resemblance to last year's team. DJU has been awful at QB and I don't think his backups will be much better. Memphis has enough offense to keep this game close, and possibly pull the upset.

 

[ofred]

So much for Kansas coming to play...well, after midway through the 2nd quarter.

Add to larger plays:

CAL -17 (-120) Cal is a more complete team now that they have found a QB. Mendoza looked very smooth at Auburn last week. Throws well while on the move or scrambling. CAL already had a nice running game and a solid defense. They could make hay in the ACC. I'm just not sure how SD State will score much or stop Cal's offense. One of my losses last week was taking them, but you could see early on that they are a green team with little in the way of a passing or run game.

Smaller plays:

Nevada +17 Nevada was supposed to be a doormat team this year, but they also found a veteran QB that may have turned the page on his college career- Brendon Lewis.A true dual threat, but his passing has improved enough to make Nevada a .500 team. Minnesota has a poor offense, and even their run game looks bad. They are going to get beat up in conference games. Going against a poor offense giving up 17 to a surprise team that can play enough D with a decent QB- yeah.

Wake Forest +21.5 Hate to go against what I think is a very good team in Ole Miss. They make the playoffs barring injuries. But this is a non-conference road game coming off two beat downs of just awful teams. Clawson has done pretty well in these types of games. He's got a veteran team for the most part with decent QB play from Hank Bachmeier.

BC +14.5 Missouri is good, but maybe a tad overrated due to their losses on defense and in the run game. BC can at least put some points up, and make Missouri work for this win. Is the BC QB Castellanos gonna look as good this week, and not turn the ball over as in last season?

Looking at one total and the Oregon-OSU game.

 

[indiana]

Fred.....BOL with all your action this weekend buddy......
have a great week.....indy

 

[ShortBusDriver7]

Appreciate the reply. Yeah the UNLV performance on road vs Houston looked even better after that Oklahoma game. That was my angle for the Q and musing over tonight's #

Unlv is the type that seems like they could backdoor a TD+ spread

Outright dog winner. Looks like KU is overrated and that might mean Illinois is too

 

[ofred]

Also small:

Oregon -17 The line makes no sense the way Oregon has played, and it's at OSU's stadium. However, the Duck fans will have a large contingent of seats also. OSU is 2-0, but this is a team that has had a total makeover from last year. Too many walk-ons, too many freshmen and transfers that aren't that talented. Oregon solidifies that interior OL and they can cruise. It does seem like the money has gone big on the Beavers, and yet the line is going the other way. Hmmm.

SC/ LSU- under 47.5 SC played really well last week, and their D looks for real. I still think LSU beats them here, but runs the ball to do it. Neither QB is much of a downfield passer, and Sellers will keep his throws mostly short and safe. SC has run the ball at almost a 3:1 ratio to passes. FGs and punts galore.