week 3 nfl picks

cashducats · Sep 17, 2014

bucs +6

this is a divisional game, a physical team (bucs) playing a soft falcons team. yes, this is a short week away game for the bucs, but i think the short week hurts the falcons just as much if not more (roddy smith). lovie smith puts extra emphasis on beating division rivals.

the bucs have played two tough defenses (car and stl) in the 1st two weeks and had chances to win both of those games. now they get to play the extremely soft falcons defense, currently ranked #32 in the league. everyone down on the bucs for losing their 1st two games at home, and now they are on the road on a short week so there is little to no support for bucs here.

these teams typically play tight games and i see this one being very close, a 3-4 pt game either way. i'll take the generous 6 points here.

palehose1 · Sep 17, 2014

FYI Falcons have covered 7 straight at home against div foes and TB has big Defensive Line issues. Just facts to consider.

cashducats · Sep 17, 2014

yes, but i believe on these short week games teams just try to survive, meaning that a back door cover is more likely to happen. i don't think i will need a back door cover, but it's nice insurance. falcons played a physical bengals team and got blown out of the water. score should have been 33-10 with the 3 missed fg by nugent. against another soft team (saints) they were able to score but even in that game they had to come from behind.

bucs will ugly-fy this game and keep it close

palehose1 · Sep 17, 2014

I get your reasoning GL

cashducats · Sep 19, 2014

wow, couldn't have been more wrong. luckily it only counts as 1 loss.

cashducats · Sep 20, 2014

Giants -1

i'm late on this line, i could have had them at +2 earlier this week but shouldn't make a difference either way.

my reasons:

houston played redskins at home, were out statted but won the game. then they travel to oakland and smoked a really bad team, now they travel all the way across the country to play the giants. that's a brutal travel schedule (bears schedule is similar this week.)

in the football pool i'm in 66% are on texans at -2.5 and now the line is giants -1

giants can't play any worse than they have the past 2 weeks. the drops, the fumbles, the penalties, the special teams miscues....or can they? i think as long as jj watt doesn't go reggie white on them giants should win this.

cashducats · Sep 21, 2014

lions -1

i'll take the home team in this division game. last year they split, home and home. packers, steelers, and cowboys are america's 3 favorite teams, so you always have at least a little value fading these teams. packers were a public/popular dog all week and in 2 of the football pools i'm in.

lions got toasted last week on the road against a very good defense. now they are at home against a very poor defense. i think they can win the game.

cashducats · Sep 22, 2014

Jets -2

everyone and their mom is on the bears. why? they have traveled from chi to sf last week, to nj this week. that's alot of mileage, similar to what the texans did. you saw how flat the texans were against the giants. the giants tried to give them the game but they refused to take it, probably because they were too exhausted to.

bears will prob be emotionally drained from 2 consecutive weeks of thrillers. overtime loss to the bills after frantic comeback and then a frantic comeback that actually resulted in a win (against what is apparently not a great niner team).

cutler is due for one or two of his throw off his back foot into triple coverage int's with heavy pressure in his face.

jets are the best rushing team with the best rush defense against the exact opposite with the bears. bears are waaaaay to popular of a dog. the line tells me who the right side is.

JETS