Week 2 Writeups and Picks

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TOTAL= 1-1 ATS

1 STAR PLAYS= 1-1 ATS

2 STAR PLAYS= 0-0 ATS

3 STAR PLAYS= 0-0 ATS

5 STAR SIZZLIN= 0-0 ATS


Nothing for Week 2 yet in part due to what happen in a bizzare Week 1 for me.
As a result, I have to get things out and transfer to another book. As soon as I'm back and loaded at the new place then I'll look at the card for Week 2 (assuming that happens this week)

Best of luck.
 

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I'm staying with my book from Week 1 as we came to an agreement after resolving multiple issues. This matter is now closed and I look forward to Week 2.

Best of luck.
 

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1 STAR PLAY= Mississippi State -6.5


Reason: Mississippi State qualifies in a mini-situational system that is simple, but effective here so that is why it stays as a 1 Star play. This line may go up so I took the 6.5 while I could. The line is fair IMO because Auburn has won the last 3 meetings in this series and 9 out of the last 10 so there has to be compensation for that. However, I think Mississippi State is the better team here as they gave Cam Newton all he could handle last year in Starkville before losing 17-14. Auburn comes off an emotional win where they scored 2 TD's in the last few minutes, but were outgained by Utah State who was pushing them around most of the game . It should be noted that Mississippi State is 6-0 SU when favored over Auburn over the last 30 years because it doesn't happen often.Even more so here since they are a Road Favorite. Auburn's offense came alive late, but Mississippi State's defense ain't Utah State. On the other side of the ball, Chris Relf and company should do what they want against Auburn's weak defense.The War Eagle's defense was weak last year, especially in the secondary. Now they are just weak across the board IMO. I'll take Dan Mullen, Relf, and Ballard -6.5. Thus, I like Mississippi State. Best of luck.
 

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FINAL CARD (NOTHING MORE WILL BE ADDED)

1 STAR----MISSISSIPPI STATE -6.5

As I indicated last week, there are limited situationals in Week 2 just like Week 1. Thus, only 1 play for me. As far as Mississippi State, I'm pretty high on them coming into the year. I'm a huge Dan Mullen fan and think he is one of the best in the business. However, now is the chance for them to take care of business in a SEC Road Game. I also like the National Champs being made a Home Underdog here despite being a huge Home Favorite last week. Maybe I'm wrong, but I don't see Auburn stopping Mississippi State's offense. They will control this game and keep Malzahn's boyz on the sideline while keeping their good defense fresh. This is similar to the bowl game last year IMO when Mississippi State played another team with a pretty good offense and supsect defense. I'm not saying Auburn is as bad as Michigan's 2010 defense, but they aren't much better IMO. Give me Mullen and Mississippi State -6.5. Best of luck.
 

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I don't mind revealing the mini-situational system Mississippi State is in since its a mini and doesn't have the sample size of 25 when you add the tighteners.

It's simple and effective IMO.

Play ON Game 2 Road Favorites that WON SU as a Game 1 Road Favorite= 20-7 ATS (21-6 SU), multiple tighteners on this one listed below

.........and they scored 35 or more points in that win = 11-1 ATS (11-1 SU)

........and whose Opponent was a favorite last game= 5-0 ATS (5-0 SU), this is on here even with the small sample because teams in this spot are beating the Vegas Line on average by 19 Points and winning by 26 Points

......and they won by 20 points or more last game= 9-1 ATS (10-0 SU)

.....and beat the Vegas Line by 10 or more last game= 8-1 ATS (9-0 SU)

.......and allowed less than 20 Points last game= 15-4 ATS (16-3 SU)


.....and covered Game 1 as a Road Favorite = 15-3 ATS (16-2 SU)
 

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........Mississipppi State's Dan Mulen



In five seasons under Sylvester Croom, Mississippi State had one winning season. It took Dan Mullen just two seasons to get the Bulldogs over .500, and the Bulldogs look poised for bigger things in his third season in Starkville.
Mullen debuted with a 5-7 mark in 2009, and the Bulldogs finished 9-4 last season, capped by a 52-14 Gator Bowl thumping of Michigan. It was Mississippi State's first New Year's Day bowl appearance since a trip to the Cotton Bowl after the 1998 season.
This season, Mullen has the Bulldogs off to a fast start, leading his squad to a 59-14 whipping of Memphis to open the season. Up next: a visit to Auburn on Saturday in what could be one of the biggest games in recent school history. Win on the Plains, and Mississippi State will be validated as an SEC West contender.

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Mullen, 39, is used to success and lofty expectations after cutting working as an assistant for Urban Meyer at Bowling Green, Utah and Florida. Mullen also has forged a reputation for developing quarterbacks, working with Josh Harris at Bowling Green, Alex Smith at Utah and Chris Leak and Tim Tebow at Florida.
Mullen was offensive coordinator for national championship-winning squads at Florida in '06 and 2008 before leaving for Mississippi State.
Mullen, Chip Kelly (Oregon coach) and Gary Crowton (Maryland offensive coordinator) are part of the "New Hampshire mafia," as they all have connections to the Granite State. Mullen attended Trinity High in Manchester, N.H., before playing tight end at Ursinus College in Pennsylvania.
Rivals.com recently caught up with Mullen.
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Third-year coach Dan Mullen has changed the mindset at Mississippi State.
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Chris Relf was 13-of-21 for 202 yards and two touchdowns in the opener. Has he become a better passer?
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"A couple of years ago, we kind of tweaked some of his throwing motion and worked on how he threw the ball, and he got more accurate and more consistent. And now he understands the offense and has some experience and has played in some games. He's much more comfortable out there on the field and he has much better control of what is going on, and that all allows him to be a much better passer."

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Is a rebuilt linebacking corps your biggest issue on defense?
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"It would be that and depth on our defensive line. Those are my concerns. We have some talented players there. We have some experience back on the line, but there are some depth issues. We need to get more depth in recruiting this year."

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Do you talk to former boss Urban Meyer that often?
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"Here and there. He and I will touch base and talk about little things every once in a while. I usually call him with a football question, and he'll respond with a family question. I probably don't talk to him as much as I should."

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Do you think Meyer will be coaching in 2012?
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"I don't know. I'm sure he'll coach again because he's a football coach. Once that's in your blood, it's in your blood. ... We'll see him back on the sideline at some point."

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What other coaches and assistants do you talk to regularly?
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"I don't have regular contact but social contact. I'll talk to guys here and there at different times of the year. When it gets to this time of the year, not many. My sounding board is my staff room with all my guys in there. In the offseason, we'll pick up and visit some people."

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Did you visit any schools in the offseason?
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"Oregon, because I wanted to see how they practice. I've read so much about their practices, the up-tempo-ness of their practices, I wanted to see that. We took some things and incorporated some things that have helped us in the intensity and tempo of our practices."

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Do you talk to Tim Tebow often?
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"Here and there. I did talk to him back in the spring a little bit. Knowing Tim, he's going to find a way to get the job done. He has that winner personality and he's going to be a success."

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What did you think when you saw five SEC West teams ranked in the preseason polls?
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"We picked up right where we left off. There were five of us in the top 15 at the end of last year. If you want to win the West, you are going to be the best team in the country. That's what it takes, and that's our goal. You are going to be the best team in the country when you're playing five teams in the top 25 in just your side of the division. That's life in this conference and that's what makes it great. That's what I love, that competition against the best every week."

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QB Chris Relf likes to run, but he's become a better passer for Mississippi State.
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Do you think the West is stronger than the East?
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"I don't know. Florida was winning some national titles for a while, but I just think it meant the top team was in the East. I don't know it meant that the depth of the West still wasn't there. When you look at the balance that is in the West, five of the six teams have played in the SEC title game. ... But look at the league overall. I think eight of the 12 were ranked in the preseason polls. When you look at the depth, I don't know if there is power on one side or the other. It's just the whole conference."

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What do you think about talk of the SEC expanding?
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"We'll see what happens. I don't see that as part of my decision. I just have to get my team ready to play our schedule this year. If the commissioner and presidents think it's a good idea to expand, that's good. They have led us to be the most powerful conference in college football with what they have done. So I'll trust they'll have our best interests in the future."

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There were a lot of ugly headlines in the offseason about schools breaking rules. What do you think can be done to make schools behave?
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"I'm sure there are issues that come up. In today's world, everyone knows everything in today's media. You always are being filmed and videotaped. It gets so much more attention. With all those different stories out there, everyone just jumps on them. There are probably 100 positive stories for every negative story, but you just don't hear much about the positives but you hear tons about the one negative."

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What's the most challenging aspect of coaching at Mississippi State?
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"The biggest challenge has been making sure everyone believes and we change our culture and mindset the way we perceive our program. When we got here, there was a lot of discussion about what we can't do: We only have this many seats in our stadium, we have a small budget, all these different things of what we can't do. We changed that to focus on what we can do. It doesn't matter the size of our stadium; if we fill every seat and create a great game-day atmosphere, we will be great at home and become a tough place to play. What we can do with our budget, what we can do with the talented players in the state of Mississippi. A lot of it is changing that mindset in our state. We focus on all the things we can do and not what we can't do."

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Is this one of most challenging jobs in the league?
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"Yes, but you know what? I don't know if it is any more challenging the any of the others in this league. When you have eight teams in the top 25, there isn't an SEC coach who is saying he isn't in a challenging job."

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Given your success, have you been pursued by other schools?
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"There have been people calling, maybe some calls of inquiry to see my interest. But I am very, very happy here. Not one has even been a consideration by me and my family. We are very happy here, the way the state has accepted us, the town, the university, the direction that our program is going in. There wasn't even one that I even considered a moment."

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Talk about your relationship with Chip Kelly.
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"Kind of weird, huh? You have one New Hampshire guy in Oregon and another deep in Mississippi. Not where you'd expect to see us. But Chip has done a great job out there. He's always been a great coach. I've known him a long time. He helped me get my first job in coaching."

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After you play at Auburn, you come home and play LSU five days later on a Thursday night. What kind of schedule is that?
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"It's the SEC. What would be better? To play Alabama and Georgia like that? I don't mind playing Thursday night games -- the excitement around it, you are on national TV and everyone is watching. We'll be prepared. Fortunately, it's a home game, so we won't have to spend time travelling. Thursday nights are fun for our kids and great exposure for our university."
 

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AUBURN MISSES NICK FAIRLEY


Mike Huguenin
Rivals.com College Football Editor
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Cameron Newton had a season for the ages last season, accounting for 4,369 yards of total offense and 51 touchdowns en route to winning the Heisman and leading Auburn to the national title.
So who would've thought that the Tigers would miss defensive tackle Nick Fairley more than they would miss Newton? Going off Saturday's game against Utah State, which Auburn was lucky to win, it frankly won't be a contest.
Like Newton, Fairley had an excellent junior season (60 tackles, 11.5 sacks, 21 quarterback hurries) and was a first-round draft pick. He demanded a double-team on almost every play and generally wreaked havoc in the middle of the line.
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Nick Fairley was a dominating force for Auburn last season.Saturday against Utah State, a WAC team that was 4-8 last season and last had a winning record in 1996, Auburn had 364 yards of offense and averaged 6.7 yards per play. The biggest issue with the offense? It wasn't on the field all that much. Utah State ran 84 plays - 30 more than the Tigers. Last season, Auburn averaged 68 plays per game; with that many plays Saturday, the Tigers would've had 456 yards of offense.
Utah State had four touchdown drives of at least 14 plays. The Aggies had a combined 59 plays on those drives - five more plays than Auburn ran the whole game.
The Tigers gave up 448 yards to Utah State; the Aggies gained that much in a game just three times last season - against Nevada, one-win San Jose State and FCS patsy Idaho State.
Fairley isn't the only missing defensive starter from last season; in all, Auburn lost eight full-time starters. But he was, by far, the most important defender because of his knack for big plays. Perhaps the most damning fact from Saturday: Utah State started a true freshman quarterback, Chuckie Keeton, who didn't commit a turnover and was sacked just once.
"I'd much rather be sitting here 1-0 and talking about what we need to do to get better as opposed to 0-1 saying we played a great game," Auburn defensive coordinator Ted Roof told reporters afterward. "But it was not acceptable and we're going to get it fixed. There are no excuses."
Utah State was 10-of-17 on third downs, including 6-of-7 in the fourth quarter, and 3-of-3 on fourth down.
"We need to make plays and get off the field," Roof said.
That, in turn, would help the offense. Tigers offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn said the biggest issue with his unit was not being able to get in a rhythm; left unsaid was that was because the defense never could get off the field.
The Tigers had better get things fixed quickly. Other than a Week 4 meeting with overmatched Florida Atlantic, the Tigers have a murderous upcoming schedule.

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First up is a visit from Mississippi State this Saturday. Given that Auburn allowed 227 rushing yards to Utah State, Mississippi State coach Dan Mullen has to be wide-eyed at the thought of what his power-rushing attack can do to the Tigers. In addition, Auburn's saving grace against Utah State was that its inexperienced receiving corps still was much more gifted athletically than Utah State's secondary. Mississippi State, though, has one of the three or four best secondaries in the SEC and a stout defensive line.
After Mississippi State comes a trip to Clemson, the third opponent in a row with a mobile quarterback. Following the visit from FAU, the Tigers travel to South Carolina and Arkansas in consecutive weeks, then return home to play Florida on Oct. 15. On Oct. 22, Auburn plays at LSU.
Auburn is going to improve in the upcoming weeks; there is too much talent to think otherwise. In addition, Malzahn always gets the utmost from his quarterbacks.
Still, while a 5-3 start seems likely, it's not out of the realm of possibility that the Tigers will be 2-6 when Ole Miss comes calling Oct. 29.
After all, it's not every day that you lose a player as dominating as Nick Fairley.
 

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WS,
LOVE the idea of this play and the system on top certainly doesnt hurt but two things nag at me

1) Until AUB actually loses a game, I am left wondering who will look like the fool if I go against them especially as a home dog...which leads right into #2
2) I am cocnerned about Chris Relf as a road favorite. He did actually perform decently at MS last year and at HOU as a favorite but this is a step-up in class

Either way, I think MS ST is the right side but just wanted to provide some perspective.

Pistol
 

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WS,
LOVE the idea of this play and the system on top certainly doesnt hurt but two things nag at me

1) Until AUB actually loses a game, I am left wondering who will look like the fool if I go against them especially as a home dog...which leads right into #2
2) I am cocnerned about Chris Relf as a road favorite. He did actually perform decently at MS last year and at HOU as a favorite but this is a step-up in class

Either way, I think MS ST is the right side but just wanted to provide some perspective.

Pistol


Yes, this game has one of my so-called "Flipper" angles. Auburn hasn't lost since 2009, yet Vegas makes them not only a dog, but a Home Underdog despite both teams being ranked around the same. In addition, they are still National Champs being made a Home Dog. Auburn has won the last 3 meetings and 9 out of the last 10, but they are still made a Home Dog. Granted, this could be a reaction from last week and perception, but IMO Mississippi State will run all over them and control the game while keeping their defense fresh. The new Auburn QB and receivers will see alot more dangerous defense than Utah State IMO and will be stepping up in class due to their inexperience. Basically, while impressed with QB Chuckie Keeton last week from Utah State, I just find it hard to believe that a True Freshman from a lower-tier WAC school making his first-ever career start on the Road at a SEC team can be that great unless he had lots of help (the Auburn defense). Nick Fairley almost by himself covered up some weak spots for a suspect Auburn defense last year, which is now even worse wtih Fairley and others gone. I will even go as far to say that if there is no Nick Fairley then Auburn doesn't win the National Title last year. He was that important and dominating IMO, especially in the 2nd half of the season last year. Even Oregon held Cam Newton somewhat in check last year (Cam was average at best that night compared to his previous dominating performances), but it was Fairley who sealed the deal for the War Eagle. With him and others gone, a suspect defense is now very suspect IMO.
 

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Good luck this week WS, I know you wouldn't play road chalk unless you really liked the situation. Liking your Jackets this week at this point, was expecting to see -14 or greater.
 

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Good luck this week WS, I know you wouldn't play road chalk unless you really liked the situation. Liking your Jackets this week at this point, was expecting to see -14 or greater.


LOL, that probably explains why I'm average at best the first few weeks and one reason why all of my plays early in the season are 1 Star Plays. I have little regard for what is seemed as square because nobody has played enough games IMO, but maybe you are only to something since I had TCU last week as Road Chalk. TCU was a guessing game though and a wrong one at that (their defense actually looked worse than Baylor which I didn't even think was possible, it was closer to East Carolina level, which is as bad as it gets). At least Mississippi State has what I call a "Flipper" (explained somewhat above) and also has a mini-situational on them. Its alot smaller sample size compared to others I have, but its something at least. I just try to hang around the first few weeks of the season and watch alot of games to get a read for later on when the 2 Star plays or higher start popping up.

As far as GTECH, the offense looked great, but I didn't like the defense giving up that many to a I-AA, espcially a couple of TD's in the 1st half. Al Groh (a 3-4) guy in this second year just like Georgia's Grantham (another 3-4 guy in his second year) have alot to prove this year IMO. Based off Week 1, neither showed me improvement from last year. As I said a few weeks ago, GTECH should start 3-0 or that would be a disaster. 4-0 should even be possible if they are any good.
N.C.State was kind of disappointing too, but its only Week 1.

Best of luck Jimmy.
 

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Nice write up and got me thinking about this game now. Not a huge fan of the games this week except for N. ILLonis vs Kansas. I locked this in already at -5.5 so im laying points to, to a home dog, but just as you think about Miss St, I don't think Kansas is going to slow down the wolfpacks offense at all. Plus the line is up to -6.5 and maybe will go higher closer to sat we get.

GL bro.
 

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As always, your thread is very informative and a must to read. I really though this line would be -3 so of course I marked Auburn as a possible play. I'm pretty sure that it will be a no play for me now.
This is the best Miss St team in a very long time. It will still be difficult to be Auburn at home imho.

Good luck this week
 

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Nice write up and got me thinking about this game now. Not a huge fan of the games this week except for N. ILLonis vs Kansas. I locked this in already at -5.5 so im laying points to, to a home dog, but just as you think about Miss St, I don't think Kansas is going to slow down the wolfpacks offense at all. Plus the line is up to -6.5 and maybe will go higher closer to sat we get.

GL bro.


Best of luck. Some weird games this week with the Road Favorites (N.Illinois, Cal, Miss. State, South Carolina, those 4 off the top of my head)
 

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As always, your thread is very informative and a must to read. I really though this line would be -3 so of course I marked Auburn as a possible play. I'm pretty sure that it will be a no play for me now.
This is the best Miss St team in a very long time. It will still be difficult to be Auburn at home imho.

Good luck this week


I think the biggest factor and what made me pull the trigger on Miss. State is the Bulldogs had over 300 Yards Rushing Last Week (ranked #6 in the nation) where Auburn is ranked #105 after allowing 227 Yards to a WAC Team. Ted Roof claims he is going to fix it, but I don't how he will do it one week. I'm sure Auburn will be motivated and looking to play better on that side of the ball, but that emotion will wear off IMO by the 2nd half after Mississippi State takes the fight and will out of them IMO as they keep chopping away the tree with their elite rushing attack. I also like Missisippi State's secondary against the lightly experienced Auburn receivers. They are near the top IMO in the SEC as far as that area. Dyer and McCalebb are always scary, but a solid D-Line should help there along with the outside players (for McCalebb).Furthermore, I realize QB Barrett Trotter put up good numbers in the Utah State game, but he will get his first real taste of SEC action here against a real SEC-level defense. Auburn has the homefield and some intangibles (haven't lost in a long time), but I think this is a key, major statement game for Mississippi State to the rest of the SEC. A win here would give them some momentum to carry-over for the LSU game. A loss here puts doubt in their mind that they are still Mississippi State LOL despite what happen last year. This is their chance IMO to make it happen and they will either sink or swim in the spotlight. Mullen has been there before so that definitely helps. Best of luck this week UNITED.
 

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Always love reading your insight. Enjoy your posts. Love the bulldogs here and will be on this game as well.
 

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