DEN Def > KC Def
DEN held BAL offense to 173 net yards, zero TDs and two FG's (from 44 & 52 yds), eleven 1st downs and a 15 percent conversion rate on 3rd downs. I expect similar vs KC.
KC allowed HOU offense (with Hoyer/Mallett and Blue) 396 net yards (298 passing), two passing TDs and 24 1st downs (17 by pass).
Early lines had DEN -1. Now we get +3. At even money, I think I'm going to bite early to get +3 +100.
And if ya don't know who the home team is, best not to put your money on it.
DEN held BAL offense to 173 net yards, zero TDs and two FG's (from 44 & 52 yds), eleven 1st downs and a 15 percent conversion rate on 3rd downs. I expect similar vs KC.
KC allowed HOU offense (with Hoyer/Mallett and Blue) 396 net yards (298 passing), two passing TDs and 24 1st downs (17 by pass).
Early lines had DEN -1. Now we get +3. At even money, I think I'm going to bite early to get +3 +100.
And if ya don't know who the home team is, best not to put your money on it.
As of late Wednesday afternoon, 83 percent of all money wagered and 65 percent of all bets were on the Chiefs at William Hill's Nevada sportsbook. Yet line hasn't moved. Except KC vig down to -115 from -120. hmmm.
Something to think about:
Home favorites in a division game, coming off of a ATS road win that had lost in the previous matchup are 7-1 SU and ATS in the last 5 years
HF and DIV and p:ATSW and p:A and P:L and op:W and season >= 2010 and week <= 6
SU: 7-1-0 (7.50, 87.5%) Teaser Records
ATS: 7-1-0 (2.50, 87.5%) avg line: -5.0 +6: 7-1-0 (87.5%) -6: 3-5-0 (37.5%) +10: 7-1-0 (87.5%) -10: 2-6-0 (25.0%)
O/U: 4-4-0 (1.25, 50.0%) avg total: 44.8 +6: 4-4-0 (50.0%) -6: 5-3-0 (62.5%) +10: 2-6-0 (25.0%) -10: 6-1-1 (85.7%)
Home favorites in a division game, coming off of a ATS road win that had lost in the previous matchup are 7-1 SU and ATS in the last 5 years
HF and DIV and p:ATSW and p:A and P:L and op:W and season >= 2010 and week <= 6
SU: 7-1-0 (7.50, 87.5%) Teaser Records
ATS: 7-1-0 (2.50, 87.5%) avg line: -5.0 +6: 7-1-0 (87.5%) -6: 3-5-0 (37.5%) +10: 7-1-0 (87.5%) -10: 2-6-0 (25.0%)
O/U: 4-4-0 (1.25, 50.0%) avg total: 44.8 +6: 4-4-0 (50.0%) -6: 5-3-0 (62.5%) +10: 2-6-0 (25.0%) -10: 6-1-1 (85.7%)
