Don't like posting these as I'm paranoid. But it's easier than responding to PMs.
Larger card than week 1. Don't like the card as much as week 1, you don't get the movement you do on the games that we had week 1, but there's some games that stand out.
Army -2.5
Week 1 Duke lost at home to Richmond, 24-16. The frightening thing about the game was Duke's rushing attack. Only 19 yards on 16 carries against a team they have better athletes than. Duke passed the ball 55 times in the opener. Coach Ellerson and Army are going to present a totally different attack with the option he ran successfully at Cal Poly. Army passed the ball a total of 5 times last week, winning on the road as dogs 27-14 at Eastern Michigan. The line movement in this game is perfect towards Army. Immediately when they opened up as dogs, the sharps pounded Army. The line moved 3.5 points in less than 3 hours after it was opened, and is still moving in Army's favor. The public will back Duke, thinking "Army is FAVORED over someone? Get real!" But I take the team that successfully runs the ball, controls the clock, at home.
Wake Forest -2.5
This line actually opened as Pick'em and went up to Wake -2 only a half hour later. It has reached 3 at some places. I think this sets up absolutely perfectly for a reverse line movement play. The public will back Stanford thinking they have a great team, and that if Wake couldn't beat Baylor why should they beat Stanford? They don't understand that Baylor actually has a good team this year and it was no fluke that they beat Wake. What I like about this game is you have a 12:00PM EST start for a team traveling across the country. We saw the effects of this last year when Cal lost SU as 14 point favorites against Maryland. Look more into that Stanford box score last week. Against a very poor Washington State team, they allowed 351 yards and Wazzu even played 3 QBs. Stanford also showed their one-dimensional attack, as Luck was 11/23 for 193 yards and a TD. 63 of those yards came on a TD pass, taking that play away he went 10/22 for 130 and a TD, very unimpressive. In fact, it took late scores and missed opportunities by Wazzu to cover last week. Wazzu got down to the 1 on the opening drive and missed the FG, turned the ball over in downs on the Stanford 33, and allowed big plays which killed them.
Boston College -21
Bang this line before it reaches 21.5, I guarantee it will across the board. Kent State is an awful team and BC showed week 1 that they will not hesitate to blow out an opponent, winning 54-0. Last year these two teams played and BC won 21-0 at KSU. This year you have a significantly worse KSU team and you've got them at home. This should be a rout and I think this number should be -28. KSU has a one-dimensional attack with Eugene Jarvis in the backfield, and literally no one else on offense. BC will contain him with ease. They were up 2-0 against Coastal Carolina at halftime last week. The books introduced a line here of -18 which is laughable. It was immediately pushed up to -21 and will continue to grow. Square play? Possibly. But I like BC in a rout.
Washington -20.5
Line opened at 18, quickly shot up to 21 in less than 10 minutes. Washington as I thought, looked very good in their opener. Nice Pinnacle lean in this line, with Pinnacle offering -20.5 (-115) while Bookmaker sits at -20.5 (-110). When Pinnacle puts plus money on a team you typically run in the other direction. This is the game they have been pointing to in terms of the game they'll win and break the losing streak. Idaho may be over-valued here after their road dog victory last week that wasn't too big of a surprise.
UCLA +8
Now isn't this one interesting line? Tennessee looks like world beaters against WKU, and the books put out a line of UT -8? Last year UT was -7 AT UCLA which is one of the best home field advantages in CFB. Now they reverse roles, and you only see a 1 point advantage? This line SHOULD be at least UT -14. When the books introduced UT -10, the line went down to -7.5! This smells like a trap. Joe Public thinks UT is for real, is going to pound them, and chest-thumping SEC fans will make this their 5* selection of the week. UCLA on the other hand, was down 14-3 against a poor San Diego State team at home. UCLA got a cover week 1 through a kick return with 37 seconds to go. This line makes no sense, which is why I wouldn't touch Tennessee with a 10 foot pole because Vegas knows something about UCLA that we don't.
LSU -14.5
Bookmaker introduced LSU -12 and that lasted all but 5 minutes. It went over the key 14 number in less than an hour. These teams have only played each other twice in the past 12 years, with LSU winning 34-6 and 24-7. LSU should roll at night in Tiger Stadium.
Memphis +1
Memphis played a top 10 opponent in Ole Miss TOUGH week 1, while MTSU went to Clemson and really did not play up to expectations. Books were late in putting a number out for this game but once they made Memphis dogs, sharps changed that quickly with the line moving from +2 to PK in 33 minutes.
Kansas State -7
Opening line was -5 for Kansas State and that went over the key -7 in about a half an hour. Don't overthink this. This is not the LALA team that went to Illinois and scared them, they've lost lots of talent and even struggled against a very bad Southern team at times last week. I'm showing reverse line movement on KSU - people like LALA and that sets up well for a KSU victory.
Tulsa -17
Bookmaker initially put out -14.5 thinking that would deter action on Tulsa because it was above a key number. Well it was the wrong key number, as sharps put it up over 17 only 25 minutes later. This is a BAD New Mexico team. Ferguson is gone, and he was all they had on offense last year. They gave up 606 yards and 41 points to a normally anemic aTm offense. Imagine what one of the highest powered offenses in the country is going to do.
USC -6.5
Get -6.5 while you still can. This will go over the key 7 number. Bookmaker put out -4.5 on USC and that was hammered, 8 minutes later it got up to -6 and has been flirting with -7 since.
Oregon -11.5
Every one of the games I posted I bet on the team that has initial line movement going in their favor. This one is different. I think that what happened here is that people hit Purdue early, only to get the number they wanted on Oregon. This game opened at 11 and shot down to 9 quickly. That goes right through the key 10 number. Now, Purdue looks awfully impressive week 1, while Oregon looks like their team is in shambles and can't score points. Purdue played them tough last year in West Lafayette. That's why the early movement towards Purdue doesn't make sense. It's too obvious and went right through the key number and back, somewhat similar with the ND-Mich game. Big Ten teams NEVER go out west, to the Pac 10 stadiums, and come out with wins. They don't cover these games. The Big Ten is 22-34-2 in road games against Pac 10 opponents. Last year both MSU and Ohio State went to Cal and USC respectively, only to have both lose and not cover. The Big Ten has a history of going out west and losing - and a night game in Autzen is not an easy place to get a cover.
UNLV +7
This is a great game to play for many reasons. This line initially opened at +8.5 and even went down below the key +7 number for UNLV. While the sharp money is on UNLV, why I like this game is the trends. UNLV under Sanford plays teams tough at home, especially big time opponents. LY they beat Iowa State. The year before, they scared the crap out of Wisconsin, not even coming close to the 3 touchdown spread. Oregon State is absolutely awful on the road early in the season. In away games in weeks 1-3, since 1980 they are a whopping 8-35. ATS they are 10-29-1. They haven't even been close to covering the line on the road under Riley early in the year. In 2008 they were 15 points shy of covering a 16 point spread in Happy Valley. They also lost outright to Stanford as favorites in a game that Stanford was up BIG and almost blew. In 2007 as 3 point favorites they lost by 31 at Cincinnati. In 2006 they lost by 28 against Boise as 8 point dogs. In 2005 they lost by 36 as 13 point dogs at Louisville. This should be a game that UNLV can win outright, and getting a TD is a great number.
Larger card than week 1. Don't like the card as much as week 1, you don't get the movement you do on the games that we had week 1, but there's some games that stand out.
Army -2.5
Week 1 Duke lost at home to Richmond, 24-16. The frightening thing about the game was Duke's rushing attack. Only 19 yards on 16 carries against a team they have better athletes than. Duke passed the ball 55 times in the opener. Coach Ellerson and Army are going to present a totally different attack with the option he ran successfully at Cal Poly. Army passed the ball a total of 5 times last week, winning on the road as dogs 27-14 at Eastern Michigan. The line movement in this game is perfect towards Army. Immediately when they opened up as dogs, the sharps pounded Army. The line moved 3.5 points in less than 3 hours after it was opened, and is still moving in Army's favor. The public will back Duke, thinking "Army is FAVORED over someone? Get real!" But I take the team that successfully runs the ball, controls the clock, at home.
Wake Forest -2.5
This line actually opened as Pick'em and went up to Wake -2 only a half hour later. It has reached 3 at some places. I think this sets up absolutely perfectly for a reverse line movement play. The public will back Stanford thinking they have a great team, and that if Wake couldn't beat Baylor why should they beat Stanford? They don't understand that Baylor actually has a good team this year and it was no fluke that they beat Wake. What I like about this game is you have a 12:00PM EST start for a team traveling across the country. We saw the effects of this last year when Cal lost SU as 14 point favorites against Maryland. Look more into that Stanford box score last week. Against a very poor Washington State team, they allowed 351 yards and Wazzu even played 3 QBs. Stanford also showed their one-dimensional attack, as Luck was 11/23 for 193 yards and a TD. 63 of those yards came on a TD pass, taking that play away he went 10/22 for 130 and a TD, very unimpressive. In fact, it took late scores and missed opportunities by Wazzu to cover last week. Wazzu got down to the 1 on the opening drive and missed the FG, turned the ball over in downs on the Stanford 33, and allowed big plays which killed them.
Boston College -21
Bang this line before it reaches 21.5, I guarantee it will across the board. Kent State is an awful team and BC showed week 1 that they will not hesitate to blow out an opponent, winning 54-0. Last year these two teams played and BC won 21-0 at KSU. This year you have a significantly worse KSU team and you've got them at home. This should be a rout and I think this number should be -28. KSU has a one-dimensional attack with Eugene Jarvis in the backfield, and literally no one else on offense. BC will contain him with ease. They were up 2-0 against Coastal Carolina at halftime last week. The books introduced a line here of -18 which is laughable. It was immediately pushed up to -21 and will continue to grow. Square play? Possibly. But I like BC in a rout.
Washington -20.5
Line opened at 18, quickly shot up to 21 in less than 10 minutes. Washington as I thought, looked very good in their opener. Nice Pinnacle lean in this line, with Pinnacle offering -20.5 (-115) while Bookmaker sits at -20.5 (-110). When Pinnacle puts plus money on a team you typically run in the other direction. This is the game they have been pointing to in terms of the game they'll win and break the losing streak. Idaho may be over-valued here after their road dog victory last week that wasn't too big of a surprise.
UCLA +8
Now isn't this one interesting line? Tennessee looks like world beaters against WKU, and the books put out a line of UT -8? Last year UT was -7 AT UCLA which is one of the best home field advantages in CFB. Now they reverse roles, and you only see a 1 point advantage? This line SHOULD be at least UT -14. When the books introduced UT -10, the line went down to -7.5! This smells like a trap. Joe Public thinks UT is for real, is going to pound them, and chest-thumping SEC fans will make this their 5* selection of the week. UCLA on the other hand, was down 14-3 against a poor San Diego State team at home. UCLA got a cover week 1 through a kick return with 37 seconds to go. This line makes no sense, which is why I wouldn't touch Tennessee with a 10 foot pole because Vegas knows something about UCLA that we don't.
LSU -14.5
Bookmaker introduced LSU -12 and that lasted all but 5 minutes. It went over the key 14 number in less than an hour. These teams have only played each other twice in the past 12 years, with LSU winning 34-6 and 24-7. LSU should roll at night in Tiger Stadium.
Memphis +1
Memphis played a top 10 opponent in Ole Miss TOUGH week 1, while MTSU went to Clemson and really did not play up to expectations. Books were late in putting a number out for this game but once they made Memphis dogs, sharps changed that quickly with the line moving from +2 to PK in 33 minutes.
Kansas State -7
Opening line was -5 for Kansas State and that went over the key -7 in about a half an hour. Don't overthink this. This is not the LALA team that went to Illinois and scared them, they've lost lots of talent and even struggled against a very bad Southern team at times last week. I'm showing reverse line movement on KSU - people like LALA and that sets up well for a KSU victory.
Tulsa -17
Bookmaker initially put out -14.5 thinking that would deter action on Tulsa because it was above a key number. Well it was the wrong key number, as sharps put it up over 17 only 25 minutes later. This is a BAD New Mexico team. Ferguson is gone, and he was all they had on offense last year. They gave up 606 yards and 41 points to a normally anemic aTm offense. Imagine what one of the highest powered offenses in the country is going to do.
USC -6.5
Get -6.5 while you still can. This will go over the key 7 number. Bookmaker put out -4.5 on USC and that was hammered, 8 minutes later it got up to -6 and has been flirting with -7 since.
Oregon -11.5
Every one of the games I posted I bet on the team that has initial line movement going in their favor. This one is different. I think that what happened here is that people hit Purdue early, only to get the number they wanted on Oregon. This game opened at 11 and shot down to 9 quickly. That goes right through the key 10 number. Now, Purdue looks awfully impressive week 1, while Oregon looks like their team is in shambles and can't score points. Purdue played them tough last year in West Lafayette. That's why the early movement towards Purdue doesn't make sense. It's too obvious and went right through the key number and back, somewhat similar with the ND-Mich game. Big Ten teams NEVER go out west, to the Pac 10 stadiums, and come out with wins. They don't cover these games. The Big Ten is 22-34-2 in road games against Pac 10 opponents. Last year both MSU and Ohio State went to Cal and USC respectively, only to have both lose and not cover. The Big Ten has a history of going out west and losing - and a night game in Autzen is not an easy place to get a cover.
UNLV +7
This is a great game to play for many reasons. This line initially opened at +8.5 and even went down below the key +7 number for UNLV. While the sharp money is on UNLV, why I like this game is the trends. UNLV under Sanford plays teams tough at home, especially big time opponents. LY they beat Iowa State. The year before, they scared the crap out of Wisconsin, not even coming close to the 3 touchdown spread. Oregon State is absolutely awful on the road early in the season. In away games in weeks 1-3, since 1980 they are a whopping 8-35. ATS they are 10-29-1. They haven't even been close to covering the line on the road under Riley early in the year. In 2008 they were 15 points shy of covering a 16 point spread in Happy Valley. They also lost outright to Stanford as favorites in a game that Stanford was up BIG and almost blew. In 2007 as 3 point favorites they lost by 31 at Cincinnati. In 2006 they lost by 28 against Boise as 8 point dogs. In 2005 they lost by 36 as 13 point dogs at Louisville. This should be a game that UNLV can win outright, and getting a TD is a great number.
