Week 2 CFB Picks

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Week 1: 5-1


San Diego St. +14

Looks like Cal was released by one of the major services and they steamed the line all the way up to 2 TDs. I made this game Cal -11 so will make a little value play here as the Bears may be more focused on next weeks game against Texas in Austin. Plus this looks like one of those running dogs to boot.

 

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Tennessee +2

Baker Mayfiield and the Air-Raid offense might look good in Norman against a team from the MAC, but let's see how it does on the SEC road in front of 100K hostile fans. The Volunteers looks like they may have a very good run game this year gaining nearly 400yds on the ground last week and that could work to their advantage against a Sooners DL that returns only 1 starter. I think the wrong team is favored here, going to sprinkle a little on the ML as well.

 

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LSU -3.5

Wish I had got this at 3, but I made it slightly higher so went with the play as I think LSU is going to return the favor for last years loss in Baton Rouge. Miss St. was less than impressive last week, out gaining So Miss by only 30 yards. Now granted that was somewhat of a look ahead spot, but with only 7 returning starters I think LSU will have their way with the Bulldogs behind RB Fournette and company along with a fast defense that will contain Dak Prescott.

 

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Wake Forest +4

Syracuse played 15 freshmen in week one, and will be starting a true freshman at quarterback in Eric Dungey after senior QB Terrel Hunt tore his achilles last week. With the total down all the way to 40.5 in the conference match up points appear to be at a premium come Saturday and I will take them here with the young but improving Demon Deacons. Wake will have had 9 days to prepare for this game and QB Wolford completed 20 of 27 passes for a career-best 323 yards last week against Elon. Wake played pretty well defensively last season, but often times wore down due to a lack of depth. According to Wake coach Clawson they should have better depth this season:

As good as we were on defense last year, we didn’t play well in the fourth quarter because I thought we wore down,’’ Clawson said. “We bit the bullet, and we redshirted Chris Stewart last year, and we redshirted Rashawn Shaw, and we redshirted Willie Yarbary. And we did that because it was so important that those guys get a year in the weight room. And we didn’t want to play them before they were ready. And now they’re a lot more ready than they would have been a year ago.

“If we had played them a year ago, it would have been depth, but it wouldn’t have been real depth. And now it is real depth. They’re playable and they’ll give us snaps and they’ll help keep us fresh.’

 

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Middle Tenn State +35

I will be ordering the Jimmy Johns #14 Bootlegger Club sandwich for lunch on Saturday to enjoy while watching this game. Saban has been known to tap the brakes when inviting cupcakes to Tuscaloosa before and coming off the destruction of Wisky, this looks to be a flat spot given the rematch with Ole Miss next week. Bon apetit!

 

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BYU +3

I was hoping the 3s would show this morning for BYU and they finally did. The Westgate, among other books, made BYU a 2.5-point home favorite over Boise State in the preseason. With Hill out for the year, the Broncos are now the ones laying 3 which is too much of an adjustment as the new BYU QB was actually a VHT recruited in the same year as Jameis Winston, but went on a Mormon mission. Now he's a 22 yeard old freshman. Boise QB did not look great last week, 0-5 on 20+yd passes,only 16 completions for 129yds and Boise has lost first game away from home each of the last 3 years. Boise also qualifies in an early out of conference road fade system and I'm gonna sprinkle some on the ML as well.

 

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Virginia +12

Was waiting for this line to go higher, but it looks like 12 is the best we are going to get. I made this line 11.5 so not a lot of value here, but not a bad spot for the Wahoos from a situational standpoint with the Irish riding high from the Longhorn massacre and a game with Georgia Tech and their option offense on deck. Some folks posted trends about ND's struggles on the road laying DDs, let's hope it continues today.

 

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3-4 on the week and 8-5 YTD, thank God for BYU or it would have been somewhat of a disaster after both LSU and Tenn both shit the bed back to back. Man I need to chill out a bit, that nearly sent me off the ledge and Butch Jones now is officially a Snapper Head.