Week 17 Sucker Plays

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Not sure if they'll be any "Don Dollar Sucker Plays" in the playoffs, so for the hell of it I thought I would try to track this one last time. Haven't had much luck with the system, but it gives me something to do at work. Here goes.

Rule 1: Line looks good to average joe
NE-6 DAl+1 ARI-3.5

Rule 2: 70% or more action on one side (sportsinsights.com)
DAL 69%, GB 70%, PIT 82%, NE 80%, ARI 76%

Rule 3:No line movement or reverse line movement
DAl +1, PIT-11, NE-6

Rule 4:pinny lean
Dal+1 +104
PHI-1 -112
-----------
PIT-11 -102
CLE+11 -106
------------
NE-6 +107
BUF+6 -115

Rule 5: Public perception of teams playing (subjective)
Dal-strong
Phi-pretty strong

Pit-very strong
cle- weak

ne - strong
buf - weak

Using these parameters, I would say New England is the trap game. All criteria is met, including a strong Pinny lean begging for NE $. However, it should be noted Pinny lines are updated every 15 minutes at vegasinsider.com, so it would be a good idea to check it again Sunday am, and compare it to other books to see if they are really begging for NE action or if they are just in line with the other books.

Good luck this week. :103631605
 

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What about Carolina?
Shockey out, and Thomas may not play, yet the line moves from CAR-3 TO CAR-1..whats up with that?
 

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Drew will be passing every down trying to beat Marino's record
 

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What about Carolina?
Shockey out, and Thomas may not play, yet the line moves from CAR-3 TO CAR-1..whats up with that?

Not sure what to make of that.
Action is split almost even (53/47). I know a couple of defensive starters for Carolina are out, maybe there are others we haven't heard?
 
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Aj, I think you're on the mark.

I think there would be some dissention between Joe P as to who is stronger, Dallas or Philly, so I would eliminate that one.

I think Clev should be reclassified as Very Weak. Problem with this one is that the Pitt "Very Strong" is diluted this week by uncertainty about Tomlin's intentions re his starters. So although I think game is better qualified than Dal/Philly, I think the Pit starter issue clouds it somewhat for Joe P (me too).

I think you have it nailed with the NEn/Buff game. Buffalo has been in a total freefall since their 4-0 start. Losman, fumbling the ball in the act of passing with a four point lead, 2nd and 5, and just over two minutes left, two weeks ago, is branded in our minds as a qualifier for dumbest play of the year. The Denver win did little to restore confidence in the Buffs as Joe P's view of the Broncs is pretty close to their perception of the Buffs.

Perception of the Pats has been soaring, primarily because of their reputation come December and Playoff time, as well as the much heralded ascendance of Matt Cassel. Scoring 47+ points in three of their past five games has Joe P going ga ga. We know Joe P loves scoring machines. Their season long perception is busting through the charts.

As a Patriot fan, I hate to concede that the NEn/Buff game is the best fit this week for the Sucker Play. But I think it is.
 

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New Orleans

Re the money coming in on NO. In addition to the expectation that Drew will go crazy, I noticed that the top three contestants in the Hilton contest have NO picked. Also, overall, NO is the second top pick. So LV is probably leaning toward NO. I see that Carolina is still -3 at WSEX as of Sat AM.
 

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I hate to concede that the NEn/Buff game is the best fit this week for the Sucker Play. But I think it is.

Yeah, it's going to be a tough one to pull the trigger on (I hate betting on crap teams with nothing to play for against good teams with everything on the line), but it does seem to fit.
 

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Re the money coming in on NO. In addition to the expectation that Drew will go crazy, I noticed that the top three contestants in the Hilton contest have NO picked. Also, overall, NO is the second top pick. So LV is probably leaning toward NO. I see that Carolina is still -3 at WSEX as of Sat AM.

I'm no expert on sharp money, but it's possible they got a flood of NO $. That might explain the sudden line movement.
 

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Update on the Pinny lean and Public Bets:

<table class="rt_railbox_border2" width="100%" border="0" cellpadding="2" cellspacing="2"><tbody><tr><td class="bg2" nowrap="nowrap">12/28</td> <td class="bg2" align="right" nowrap="nowrap">6:25am</td> <td class="bg2" nowrap="nowrap"> NWE-240 </td> <td class="bg2" nowrap="nowrap"> BUF+220 </td> <td class="bg2" nowrap="nowrap"> NWE-5.5 -104 </td> <td class="bg2" nowrap="nowrap"> NWE+5.5 -104 </td> <td class="bg2" nowrap="nowrap"> 40 -115 </td> <td class="bg2" nowrap="nowrap"> 40 +105 </td> <td class="bg2"> </td> <td class="bg2"> </td> <td class="bg2"> </td> <td class="bg2"> </td> </tr> <tr> <td class="bg2" nowrap="nowrap">12/28</td> <td class="bg2" align="right" nowrap="nowrap">6:37am</td> <td class="bg2" nowrap="nowrap"> NWE-240 </td> <td class="bg2" nowrap="nowrap"> BUF+220 </td> <td class="bg2" nowrap="nowrap"> NWE-5.5 -104 </td> <td class="bg2" nowrap="nowrap"> NWE+5.5 -104 </td> <td class="bg2" nowrap="nowrap"> 40 -110 </td> <td class="bg2" nowrap="nowrap"> 40 +100 </td> <td class="bg2"> </td> <td class="bg2"> </td> <td class="bg2"> </td> <td class="bg2"> </td> </tr> <tr> <td class="bg2" nowrap="nowrap">12/28</td> <td class="bg2" align="right" nowrap="nowrap">6:39am</td> <td class="bg2" nowrap="nowrap"> NWE-240 </td> <td class="bg2" nowrap="nowrap"> BUF+220 </td> <td class="bg2" nowrap="nowrap"> NWE-5.5 -104 </td> <td class="bg2" nowrap="nowrap"> NWE+5.5 -104 </td> <td class="bg2" nowrap="nowrap"> 40 -108 </td> <td class="bg2" nowrap="nowrap"> 40 -102 </td> <td class="bg2"> </td> <td class="bg2"> </td> <td class="bg2"> </td> <td class="bg2"> </td></tr></tbody></table>
Sportsinsights still has the percentage of bets on NE at 80%.

Looks like a little reverse line movement.
 

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Buffalo + or NE - ???

Sooooo Does this mean you place yer bet on BUFFALO ? :grandmais
 

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AJ: Good luck. I hope you have better luck than when I tried this system.
 

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AJ: Good luck. I hope you have better luck than when I tried this system.

Thanks esqajm,
This one is setting up nicely, right down to the late reverse line movement. Sharp money? Who knows? But I hope Don Dollars is right.:103631605
 

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