WEEK 17 - BC/ED and more

[powerz]

I started handicapping this game and the 1st place I looked at was some AAA trends. If you have been following my threads in the Hockey forum these trends are based on 85 -100%. I think it is important to note the under trends and the final avg scores in those trends.

Original in the week I was very bullish on the over. However I am starting to swing around to the Lions!

1st - I listened to Wally Buono interview this morning - his comments re: charles roberts starting....."we knew when we traded for roberts that logan was the better of the two backs" knowing wally he has told roberts that - I expect a huge game from roberts tonight to set up the passing game.

2nd - Lots being made about Rob Murphy being dirty and a cheater. Sour grapes I say the problem is he is a dominate player and everyone likes to take shots at a guy who is on top. If you dont believe they play on the edge in the trenches then you don't know football.

3rd - As good as Edmonton looked last week (and BC bad) the game was still in doubt as all cfl games in the 4th quarter. The lions did a good job of keeping Ricky Ray in 2nd in long but a bad job of letting them convert 2nd down. I think that may change this week.



3* - Underdogs or pick (BRITISH COLUMBIA) - versus division opponents, off an upset loss as a home favorite. 25-4 last 3 seasons <?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comfficeffice" /><o></o>
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4*- BRITISH COLUMBIA is 9-0 UNDER (+9.0 Units) versus good passing teams averaging 8.3 or more passing yards/att - after 9 or more games over the last 2 seasons. The average score was BRITISH COLUMBIA 28.9, OPPONENT 19.1<o></o>
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3* - BRITISH COLUMBIA is 8-0 UNDER (+8.0 Units) versus poor rushing defenses - allowing >=5.7 rushing yards/carry - after 9 or more games over the last 2 seasons. The average score was BRITISH COLUMBIA 29.5, OPPONENT 17.5<o></o>
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3* - EDMONTON is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins against the spread over the last 3 seasons. The average score was EDMONTON 25.0, OPPONENT 32.9<o></o>
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3* Buono is 8-0 UNDER (+8.0 Units) against teams who commit 2.5 or more turnovers/game on the season - after 9 or more games as the coach of BRITISH COLUMBIA.
The average score was BRITISH COLUMBIA 26.7, OPPONENT 18.8

I will be back later in the day with a final play.....


powerz

 

[Rjcsjc62]

I kinda wish I read this before I bet the over. Good luck Powerz.

 

[powerz]

heres what I ended up playing...

6 point teaser
BC +9.5
Missouri +10 2.5*

and parlay at original lines
BC +4
Missouri +7 1* +185

gl guys

 

[PassTheBuck]

Was that Cam Wake or Ray Alexander in the 1994 playoffs? That was a pretty sick block at the end of the game.

You are half way to pay day.... nice calls

 

[PhilMoneyMargonis]

good call on BC

 

[powerz]

Cfl gom

Six games ago the Toronto Argos hit the low point of their season losing 45-19 in Montreal. That triggered the firing of Rich Stubler enter CFL coaching legend Don Mathews. However things under Matthews have not gotten better the Argos have lost 5 straight and really did not look very good doing it, failing to cover the spread in 4 of the 5 losses. Starting QB’s have been benched senior team members have been cut, but the losing just continues. However today they line up vs the Eastern Champions Montreal Alouettes in what should be their Championship game.
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You see Matthews spent several years as the Als head coach going 58-20 in that time. He also was the one responsible for grooming the QB talent of Anthony Calvillo, so we think he knows how to disrupt him & the potent Al’s attack.
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As bad as the Argos have been they did catch BC napping 2 weeks ago and covered a spread at home and last week were in the game until the final minute vs Bluebombers. So the Matthews message is sinking in as this team is starting to turn.
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Despite a 10-5 record this year Montreal is just 3-4 OTR winning games in Hamilton, Winnipeg & Toronto. 2 weeks ago the Al’s lost outright on the road to the Hamilton Tiger Cats as 10-point favourites.
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This is a dbl revenge game for the Argos who have been whipped twice by the Als this year. The books are a bit leery of this game as well as they have posted an 8.5 line on game should be around 15 points if you are power ratings believer. However they know that the Argo intensity should be higher than that of team who clinched their division several weeks ago and really won’t play another meaningful game for another month.
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Here are some supporting trends.
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2*- MONTREAL is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) after covering the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games over the last 3 seasons. The average score was MONTREAL 29.3, OPPONENT 38.3
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2* - TORONTO is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) revenging a loss where opponent scored 45 or more points since 1996.
The average score was TORONTO 29.5, OPPONENT 21.5
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3* - Play On - Home underdogs or pick (TORONTO) - after failing to cover the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games, team with a losing record in the second half of the season. 25-5 since 1996 83.3%
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PLAY – TOR +8.5 2* & ML +300 1*

 

[PhilMoneyMargonis]

i took TO money line as well

good luck

 

[PassTheBuck]

I don't know why Matthews doesn't start attempting the 2 point conversions when they started to make that late comeback (down 16). They definitely could've covered that spread.... tough beat.