Week 16

[OverThinker]

5-2 week 15 after Dallas did everything in their power not to cover. Bringing record to 25-12 +1655 since beginning to post. Onward and upward!

Ravens +4.5 (2x)...Usually dont start making plays before the Monday night game is over but had to bet this one soon as I saw it. Steelers havnt beaten these guys since 2014 I believe, have only won by more than this number 1 time since 2011! This game always a slugfest and is almost always close. I'm really surprised this line is more than a fg, I expect it to be decided by said fg so will happily take the generous number.

Ill talk more about this one later in the week and post rest of my card as I play it..

 

[KingEleven]

good luck OT, see a couple ALREADY on Baltimore...I'll definitely take a very close look......make that $$$

 

[OverThinker]

good luck OT, see a couple ALREADY on Baltimore...I'll definitely take a very close look......make that $$$

Yea I see Ravens popping up as a play for a lot of folks, I guess I kinda expected that and why I got down early cause I would think it gets bet down closer to 3 throughout the week. I'm certainly no line reader expert tho so maybe not, I just play them when I see value. GL to u as well.

 

[TheComputerGroup]

Yea I see Ravens popping up as a play for a lot of folks, I guess I kinda expected that and why I got down early cause I would think it gets bet down closer to 3 throughout the week. I'm certainly no line reader expert tho so maybe not, I just play them when I see value. GL to u as well.

You will never see 3 in this game.......you may see +3.5, but I highly doubt it reaches 3.......IMO, it will settle at 4

 

[OverThinker]

Bucs+3 (1x)..

will have writeups later, afraid gonna lose the number so wanted to get it posted.

 

[OverThinker]

Mia+4.5 (1.5x).. this one was a lean for me at +3, at 3.5 I was close to playing, now line has inexplicably shot up to 4.5 and I just don't get it. There is very little separating these teams imo, I have fish as a point better on a nuetral field so factoring in hf for bills this line should be more like bills-2 yet we get 2.5 more than that across a couple important numbers in another game I think gonna be very close.

Both teams run defenses have been getting gashed, phins rushing attack has struggled recently but they have been seeing a lot of stout rush defenses and that far from the case in this one. Last meeting ajayi ripped them for over 200 and while I don't expect that kind of game I do like the matchup to get him back on track. Bills will have success on the ground as well, shady came up gimpy the 1st meeting so no doubt bills rushing attack will be better here.

Im assuming part of this line move is money fading Moore, that a mistake imo as I said last week I don't believe he is a downgrade over tannehill and he actually throws a better deep ball. For the second week in a row that deep throwing ability will come in handy vs this bills pass d that while does do some things well (keeping qbs completion percentage low and rushing the passer) they struggle keeping wrs in front of them allowing almost 12 yards per completion which ranks 28th in the league, even worse than jets who Moore hit for several big plays. That deep throwing ability paired with a good wr corp that has deep threats all over is what I think along with phins ability to get off the field on 3rd down (best in the league in opponents 3rd down percentage!) and a huge coaching advantage are what the difference is in this one. Last time Mia won in buffalo guess who was the qb? That right, Matt Moore! Phins come in a complete their second sweep of a division rival in as many weeks as they get one step closer to a playoff birth..

 

[OverThinker]

Giants ml +110 (1x).. I hate thursdays and tried to pass but I can't freaking resist after this crazy move. I'll happily take better team plus money and fade these so called sharps who been getting curb stomped on games like this all year. If they lose so be it I'd take nyg at this price every day and twice on Sunday vs this philly team who's offense won't have much luck moving the rock..

 

[OverThinker]

Texans-1 (1.5x).. these guys were winning home games starting a qb so bad he was incapable of getting one of the best wrs in the league involved in the game, something 4 bums off street managed to accomplish last season and something savage proved he could do instantly looking for and connecting w Hopkins early and often vs a very good jags pass defense. Normally the fact this game means very little to hou would worry me (next week vs titans seals their fate regardless of this game)however this case a little different with savage taking over for the most overpaid guy in the league, he hungry to win his teams confidence and this job and he doing so vs a very beatable by bungals secondary. On other side green comes back but doing so against a hou defense that top 10 in most important categories and has somehow managed to win all these home games with Asswiler at qb. Savage can't be a downgrade and this team has beaten Cincy plenty with not much behind center. Hopkins numbers alone prove savage in fact a upgrade and if he the guy look out cause this team has been a QB away for the last 2 years. Hou takes care of business and savage builds confidence for trip to play titans for all the marbles next week (assuming titans win at jags!)..

 

[OverThinker]

Starting week in a little hole after being unable to lay off the gmen despite my dislike of the Thursday game. I simply couldn't pass on them once line flipped and they offered nyg+110, as I said when I posted it that a play I would make as many times as that number presented itself and feel good about it every time. No buyers remorse here got plus money on the better team who had 2 possessions inside eagles 30 in the last 4 minutes with a chance to win, a situation gmen been thriving in all year where philly has struggled mightily in close games. Sometimes they just don't bounce your way, best we can do is hopefully continue to get money down on good numbers where team has similar chances to win the game late.

Drops record to 25-13 +1545 since beginning to post.

Card thus far..

ravens+4.5 (2x).. can't believe this line up to 6, who laying this in this matchup? Crazy!
Bucs+3(1x) prob gonna add since I played at worst number.
phins+4.5 (1.5x)
Hou-1 (1.5x)

Unfortunately I did a poor job this week getting bunch of appears to be crappy numbers, always say I'm no line reader expert and for life of me don't understand what folks see to be driving a few of these? Always feels better when I beat majority of closers like last week but shit happens, doesnt change how I feel about the outcomes.. still holding out on few more, pretty sure gonna have at least 1 more side and probably a total or 2. Will post when I play..

 

[OverThinker]

Skins/bears 1st half under 23.5 (1x).. this total has been bet up quite a bit since open and while I can certainly understand it i think it has gotten too high. For as much talk as skins passing game garners (well deserved, i have sung their praises plenty!) grudens offense operates much more efficiently when they work off the rushing attack, they have lost their way a little these last several weeks culminating in a abysmal 13 attempt for 29 yard effort on Monday night. Look for coach gruden to have his team come out w a renewed commitment to the run here against a bears run defense that has struggled holding up at the point of attack recently. Bears been falling behind a lot lately which has had Howard getting less carries than I'd imagine fox would like but here against a rather slow starting skins team bears should have time to establish him in this one.. my only criticism of the skins offense been their inability to convert Ted zone trips into tds which continued again last week as they settled for fgs on most their successful drives. Bears a top 10 red zone defense only allowing 50% success on the season but have gotten even better the last 3 weeks only allowing a score on 36% of opponents trips to scoring range, appears reed gonna be out and skins will once again struggle coming away with 7s.. skins d struggles getting off the field on 3rd downs which gonna allow bears to eat up big chunks of the clock, skins d like chi has been playing their best red zone defense of the season the last month. After chi drives the field and eats some clock look for them to settle for fgs early on as well.

Both these offenses more than capable of moving the ball here, I'm certainly not calling for a defensive battle, I'm suggesting the reason this total opened at a number that understandably appeared low to bettors was actually lined that way for a reason. The reason for 1st half is simple enough, both these teams been slow starters (both bottom 3rd of league in 1st half scoring, skins a tick over 10 and bears 8.8) who's offenses pick it up often after they fall behind in the second half and abandon the rushing attack. Early on both teams should be looking to establish the run and should have just enough success to keep this clocking ticking in what outta be a 1st half highlighted with more fgs and punts than tds. The other bonus to the 1st half play is I think could very well be potential for some value on a second half play..

 

[OverThinker]

Skins/bears 1st half under 24 (1x).. this total has been bet up quite a bit since open and while I can certainly understand it i think it has gotten too high. For as much talk as skins passing game garners (well deserved, i have sung their praises plenty!) grudens offense operates much more efficiently when they work off the rushing attack, they have lost their way a little these last several weeks culminating in a abysmal 13 attempt for 29 yard effort on Monday night. Look for coach gruden to have his team come out w a renewed commitment to the run here against a bears run defense that has struggled holding up at the point of attack recently. Bears been falling behind a lot lately which has had Howard getting less carries than I'd imagine fox would like but here against a rather slow starting skins team bears should have time to establish him in this one.. my only criticism of the skins offense been their inability to convert Ted zone trips into tds which continued again last week as they settled for fgs on most their successful drives. Bears a top 10 red zone defense only allowing 50% success on the season but have gotten even better the last 3 weeks only allowing a score on 36% of opponents trips to scoring range, appears reed gonna be out and skins will once again struggle coming away with 7s.. skins d struggles getting off the field on 3rd downs which gonna allow bears to eat up big chunks of the clock, skins d like chi has been playing their best red zone defense of the season the last month. After chi drives the field and eats some clock look for them to settle for fgs early on as well.

Both these offenses more than capable of moving the ball here, I'm certainly not calling for a defensive battle, I'm suggesting the reason this total opened at a number that understandably appeared low to bettors was actually lined that way for a reason. The reason for 1st half is simple enough, both these teams been slow starters (both bottom 3rd of league in 1st half scoring, skins a tick over 10 and bears 8.8) who's offenses pick it up often after they fall behind in the second half and abandon the rushing attack. Early on both teams should be looking to establish the run and should have just enough success to keep this clocking ticking in what outta be a 1st half highlighted with more fgs and punts than tds. The other bonus to the 1st half play is I think could very well be potential for some value on a second half play..

This was actually 24 when I placed. Glad I did writeup before making the wager, usually make play 1st but suspected this might go up little more. Strongly considering the game under as well now that it up to 48, just little concerned this 4th qrtr could have fireworks.

 

[OverThinker]

Skins/bears under 49 (1x).. like I said above I understand the steam but while I understand it I don't agree with it. Hoping we get the slow start I'm expecting I will be looking for opportunities to take the over live or at half and shoot for the middle. I'm still little fearful of a video game breaking out in the 4th but at this number I feel we will have options before that happens!

 

[chonce]

I liked the Ravens at 4.5; I would've like them at 3.5. I got them at 6 -- I assume that is mostly public money (are the sharps sitting this one out?_

I wouldn;;t be totally opposed to taking a flyier on the ML but I rarely do that. I do worry about the Smith injury, but this game will be a dog fight

 

[mickj]

bears under now 24.5 +105 at betdsi.

 

[OverThinker]

bears under now 24.5 +105 at betdsi.

Yea can't believe it keeps climbing. Really glad I got 24 but the hook and plus money would have been nice. Maybe I'm way off here but I don't think these teams come out lighting it up, sure eventually both offenses coukd heat up but think we see a lot of rushing attempts early on after skins had all of 13 rushes last week. Gruden knows his qb much more efficient off play action. Plus both teams red zone d been strong while skins offense has bogged down in scoring range all season. Obviously the guys driving it up gots more money than me so maybe im looking at this wrong?

 

[OverThinker]

I liked the Ravens at 4.5; I would've like them at 3.5. I got them at 6 -- I assume that is mostly public money (are the sharps sitting this one out?_

I wouldn;;t be totally opposed to taking a flyier on the ML but I rarely do that. I do worry about the Smith injury, but this game will be a dog fight

Im more than a little confused by some these moves this week! More often than not the number where I see value usually doesn't keep going opposite direction. Freaking insane to me ppl laid anything more than a fg with pit. I'd never lay more than 3 on either side in this game! I kinda feel same way bout money line, I don't love it but don't believe for a second that price accurately reflects Ravens chances!

 

[OverThinker]

Colts +3.5 (1x)..

 

[OverThinker]

Starting week in a little hole after being unable to lay off the gmen despite my dislike of the Thursday game. I simply couldn't pass on them once line flipped and they offered nyg+110, as I said when I posted it that a play I would make as many times as that number presented itself and feel good about it every time. No buyers remorse here got plus money on the better team who had 2 possessions inside eagles 30 in the last 4 minutes with a chance to win, a situation gmen been thriving in all year where philly has struggled mightily in close games. Sometimes they just don't bounce your way, best we can do is hopefully continue to get money down on good numbers where team has similar chances to win the game late.

Drops record to 25-13 +1545 since beginning to post.

Card thus far..

ravens+4.5 (2x).. can't believe this line up to 6, who laying this in this matchup? Crazy!
Bucs+3(1x) prob gonna add since I played at worst number.
phins+4.5 (1.5x)
Hou-1 (1.5x)

Unfortunately I did a poor job this week getting bunch of appears to be crappy numbers, always say I'm no line reader expert and for life of me don't understand what folks see to be driving a few of these? Always feels better when I beat majority of closers like last week but shit happens, doesnt change how I feel about the outcomes.. still holding out on few more, pretty sure gonna have at least 1 more side and probably a total or 2. Will post when I play..

Really screwed up with the add ons of colts and under in chitown, would have turned a profit today if not for that, as is at least both wins were 1.5 while the losses were all 1x so only down a buck forty or so on the day. I'll update record and total after 2marro and pretty sure will be adding kc to the card, if I do I'll post it. MERRY XMAS TO ALL AND ALL A GOOD NIGHT :toast: