Week 16 thoughts

[sdf]

Looks like Locker and Mettenberger are out. It's all Charlie Whitehurst and Tenny is throwing in the towel and playing for a top draft pick. Meanwhile, Jax is fighting every week. Jax -3 looks like such a weird line. Jax laying points? It looks low to me.....Jags by a TD

Indy +3.5 -130. Luck versus the Cowboys pass defense with Dallas on a bit of a short week after a huge win over Philly and still in a must win situation? Yes please. Romo vs Indy dee is tasty but Dallas has pretty much zero HFA here and Luck will love playing in the dome.

SD under 41.5....good hell the SD offense is embarrassing and the SF offense is worse.


I so want to take TB+10.5...come on...a 10.5 point home dog in the NFL? Please. GB has been weak on the road. TB still seems to have some fight in them even though they lose every week.

Oak +6....oh God. Did I really type that?????? I think I'll need 7 before I bet on da Raiduhs but this sets up as a nice Oak bounce back and Beefalo just won a huge game and must be flat after that..not to mention the long travel.

Atl +5.5....dafuq is NOR doing laying this many at home in a huge game where they simply cannot win. NOR with a short week to boot

Balt+Det teaser....because Houston has no QB and nothing to play for and Chicago has completely mailed in the season.



maybes
Wash +9 at home is tempting too as Sanchez is starting to fall off and RG3 has plenty to play for, but I could see the Red defense getting cornholed.

Stl -5.....all you have to do is stop ODB3 and I think the Rams can do that.

Dallas over...pretty much have to, dont you??

 

[cashflow50]

Indy +3.5 -130. Luck versus the Cowboys pass defense with Dallas on a bit of a short week after a huge win over Philly and still in a must win situation? Yes please. Romo vs Indy dee is tasty but Dallas has pretty much zero HFA here and Luck will love playing in the dome.

I like this play alot...everyone has a short memory and will pound dallas. Lucks mediocre game with picks even ..books will win back on this one. gl this week bro!!

 

[sdf]

thanks cash. not to mention Murray is ?able, Free is doubtful and OL Martin is ?able. That...is...HUGE for that offense. missing 2 OL and the top RB?

 

[secondcity]

in support of your TB pick, Lovie Smith teams seemed to play above their abilities against the packers in Chicago. He knows how to keep it close against them (anecdotally, I haven't looked at numbers) and his teams always seemed to show up when there was nothing to play for

 

[TheComputerGroup]

I like all your plays except for Tampa... ...Rodgers got embarrassed last week at Buffalo, of course it was a very bad spot for them.......IMO, they bounce back in a huge way & blow the doors off Tampa in sunny Florida.

Gbay knows they need this game in a big way since the Lions already beat them once

The oil up the offense getting it ready for the game of the year for both teams, Gbay vs Lions for the division title.......do you guys realize that if Gbay loses to the Lions in week 17, they won't make the playoffs.......

 

[cashflow50]

line is rising for a reason...id play them at 12

 

[BigdaddyQH]

It is real simple. Do NOT fade teams that must win to hold serve. A Dallas loss means that if Philly wins out, they win the Division based on best divisional record. Odds are that if this happens, Dallas is odd man out. The only team they could pass and get into the playoffs would be Seattle, unless Seattle wins the NFC West.

New Orleans will defeat Atlanta because they simply have better players. A loss annd Atlanta wins the division.

 

[indiana]

SDF..........good luck with your week end action.............indy

 

[sdf]

I'm diggin the TB play. non Division games this late in the season when the roady is laying DD is 4-18 ATS

http://sportsdatabase.com/nfl/query...and+division!=o:division&submit=++S+D+Q+L+!++

not to mention TB has been competitive at home TY even though they cant seem to win there.

tack on that GB is 3-4 on the road and 2 of those wins were by 3 points. They just are not the beast that they are at home.

GB surely wants to win and they probably will, but winning big may not be in the plans especially when they have a massive lookahead next week with the Loins

 

[TheComputerGroup]

It is real simple. Do NOT fade teams that must win to hold serve. A Dallas loss means that if Philly wins out, they win the Division based on best divisional record. Odds are that if this happens, Dallas is odd man out. The only team they could pass and get into the playoffs would be Seattle, unless Seattle wins the NFC West.

New Orleans will defeat Atlanta because they simply have better players. A loss annd Atlanta wins the division.

Saints will lose SU to Atlanta.....Saints will not make the playoffs......Atlanta will go 6-0 in the division & win the division title.......

Atlanta 6-9 vs Panthers 6-8-1 for the title week 17.......Saints are garbage at home, they just beat a worthless Bears team........Atlanta ML huge......I'm.just waiting for the ML to come out.

 

[TheComputerGroup]

I'm diggin the TB play. non Division games this late in the season when the roady is laying DD is 4-18 ATS

http://sportsdatabase.com/nfl/query...and+division!=o:division&submit=++S+D+Q+L+!++

not to mention TB has been competitive at home TY even though they cant seem to win there.

tack on that GB is 3-4 on the road and 2 of those wins were by 3 points. They just are not the beast that they are at home.

GB surely wants to win and they probably will, but winning big may not be in the plans especially when they have a massive lookahead next week with the Loins

If I'm.not mistaken, quite a few guys on this site have been using that database & are lucky to be hitting 50% on sides this season.......good luck either way.

 

[sdf]

It is real simple. Do NOT fade teams that must win to hold serve. A Dallas loss means that if Philly wins out, they win the Division based on best divisional record. Odds are that if this happens, Dallas is odd man out. The only team they could pass and get into the playoffs would be Seattle, unless Seattle wins the NFC West.

New Orleans will defeat Atlanta because they simply have better players. A loss annd Atlanta wins the division.

NOR had better players than a number of teams and still lost to them at home. See Panthers, Carolina. Julio will be back for ATL as well. NOR has proven repeatedly they should not be laying many points at home right now. 0-4 last 4 games and they have barely been competitive. They beat CHI but then again so is everyone else. CHI has totally quit on the season.

Teams that need to win just might do so, but teams that NEED to win get tight and nervous and do stupid things. Some teams have totally quit this year and are not to be bet on (Tenny and Chi and I'm tempted to add SF and Wash to that list). Some teams are out of the running for the playoffs but still giving effort (Minny, NYG, STL, TB, JAX, HOU..primarly cuz of their defense....).

Dallas could very well win the game. 3.5 is just good value with Indy IMO. Indy needs the win as well to lock up the 3 seed. No way they can get the 1 or 2 without Brady or PeyPey getting hurt. I just saw Dallas crap down their leg over Thanksgiving against Philly and after getting up for their last game to get revenge on the Eagles, they could very well falter this game. Hard to get up repeatedly for big games. They are wildly unpredictable. If they are down 2 OL and a RB, that makes their situation much worse as they will need to score a lot to keep up with the Colts offense.

 

[sdf]

If I'm.not mistaken, quite a few guys on this site have been using that database & are lucky to be hitting 50% on sides this season.......good luck either way.

understood. I didnt come up with the system until just now as i was fooling around with the idea. 10 points seems absurd to lay on the road right now unless the team has just totally quit. that system didnt tell me to play GB. it just added more fuel to other reasoning that TB looks good. that this late in the year, laying DD on the road is a bad idea. I think this is a good spot to play TB.

 

[sdf]

anyone playing my picks based on what i wrote isnt going to win big. i'll get half right, half wrong. there are better people to tail here.

 

[Cantpickem]

It is real simple. Do NOT fade teams that must win to hold serve. A Dallas loss means that if Philly wins out, they win the Division based on best divisional record. Odds are that if this happens, Dallas is odd man out. The only team they could pass and get into the playoffs would be Seattle, unless Seattle wins the NFC West.

New Orleans will defeat Atlanta because they simply have better players. A loss annd Atlanta wins the division.

As usual you are right on top of it. I also like the over 55 on the Dal/Indy game.

 

[wizard1183]

It is real simple. Do NOT fade teams that must win to hold serve. A Dallas loss means that if Philly wins out, they win the Division based on best divisional record. Odds are that if this happens, Dallas is odd man out. The only team they could pass and get into the playoffs would be Seattle, unless Seattle wins the NFC West.

New Orleans will defeat Atlanta because they simply have better players. A loss annd Atlanta wins the division.

yep and saints have lost their last 4 SU and ATS at home. They're going to win at home and ATS. I'd say they lose ATS playing TB following week. Should go 7-9 ATS.

 

[In2ition]

Love the Oakland pic sdf. Bol on ur plays buddy!

 

[ryanphan]

4 dogs I will play this week : CHARGERS + 2,5 , jets +10,5 , tampa +10,5 , cincin + 3,5

 

[sdf]

4 dogs I will play this week : CHARGERS + 2,5 , jets +10,5 , tampa +10,5 , cincin + 3,5

yes
i still dont trust the Jest, but this is a home division game and they may put up a fight defensively. tough call.
yes
if you can tell me which Cincy team shows up, i'll have an answer. So so inconsistent this year! I can see Denver fighting for the win so they can take off Week 17.

dont hate the picks at all. SD I almost took but their offense is STRUGGLE right now and going to get worse with Keenan Allen out

 

[sportsfantatic44]

RG3 looked good at times last week. They really outplayed the Giants most of the game. They had no answer for Beckham. That bizarre play at the end of the half really turned the game around. I think if they called that a TD I think the Skins win. I think the Skins are a live dog here vs. Philly. Hard to believe Sanchez is over a TD favorite on the road in a divisional game. Think the Skins can keep this close. Skins lost in Philly week 3 by a FG and remember that Foles was the QB in that one. Cousins threw for over 400 vs. that secondary too.