Week 16 Sucker Play

[ajreeb]

Looks like Indy / Jax could be a sucker play this week.

Meets all of DD's criteria, I think. Even a little reverse line movement.

http://www.thespread.com/nfl-football-public-betting-chart

Might be worth tracking, not sure if I'll bet it.

 

[QuittingWork]

No doubt.


I love jville here. Btw, I don't believe the whole trap game/ they want you here or there deal. Having said that, this game appears to fit the criteria of the much talked about sucker bet/trap line. I think This line would be six at lucas oil field. In an instance like this (bettor favorite playoff team vs. Underachieving bums at the end of the year) it is known that most players will lay anything up to 7. that is, IMHO, why they hang 6.5 here--just gives jville an extra 3-4 points to actually cover 80% of bets.

Was hoping this thing would creep to seven...not gonna happen...guess there may be an opinion at outlets that they like where they stand against their players.

I actually hedged a bit by playing the under, figuring if jville pulls a total no work/no show that indy won't put up 38. lol

 

[ajreeb]

Was hoping this thing would creep to seven...not gonna happen...guess there may be an opinion at outlets that they like where they stand against their players.

Similar to last week's HOU+3 and JAX+2. Both lines held firm despite heavy action the other way. And both won SU.

 

[TheKids]

Teasers were a killer last week. Guys started as soon as they were up with them this week, Colts were number 1 choice, would love to see them go down by a td or more, lots of 10s and 13s...

Folllowed by Cowboys, Cowboys Under, and Titans unders....

GL

 

[DIRTYDOG1]

Looks like Indy / Jax could be a sucker play this week. Meets all of DD's criteria, I think. Even a little reverse line movement.

:howdy:
Hello ajreeb...

I actually took a look at the hometown Jags in this contest because they did indeed perform better just as I thought they would in their game against Green Bay last week, and like you I also noticed the "line reversal" on this contest with regard to what the line (Jags +4) was when they met during wk-3 this year and the final result of that meeting which was a Jag 23-21 win and cover...

...if we were to disregard each teams current record one would think the line on this contest would be Jags -2, if we were then to adjust that projected line by as many as 4 points to compensate for how each team has performed season to date, we have a line of Jags +2.

A check backwards in time shows that the last two times that the Colts visited Jag-land the odds maker closed the posted line at Colts -3 and Colts -1.... the end result of those games was Colts 29-7 and Jags 44-17 respectively.

Obviously there is line value with the Jags in this affair as they are the team without pressure who would like nothing better then to take down a hated divisional rival and it certainly helps knowing that the Colts have failed to cover 12 of their last 16 ATS against divisional opponents..

....however, although Jacksonville won in straight up fashion last week I really thought the Jags would perform better than they did against Green bay and the fact of the matter is that even with last weeks home cover Jacksonville is still only 1-6 ATS at home this year and has failed to cover 8 of their last 10 ATS against AFC teams.

Personally I am probably going to stay away from the side in this game but may just take a flyer on the OVER if it continues to drop from the opening total of 45...

....its currently 44 and if it falls off that "Key number" I will probably grab the OVER because the Jags figure to play a "bombs away" type of game with nothing to lose and according to the ole history book the Jags have gone OVER the total in 7 of their last 10 when installed as doggies in this price range.

Hope this helps, take care and be well my friend

Jim

 

[ajreeb]

:howdy:
Hello ajreeb...

Obviously there is line value with the Jags in this affair as they are the team without pressure who would like nothing better then to take down a hated divisional rival and it certainly helps knowing that the Colts have failed to cover 12 of their last 16 ATS against divisional opponents..

Hope this helps, take care and be well my friend

Jim

Hey Jim,
Appreciate your insight very much! Always like to hear what others are thinking on games I'm considering a play on. While I agree with you, this is probably a game best left as a "no-play", I'm still intriqued by the whole "trap/sucker" bet theory (even though I've gone 0-4 so far this year following it). VegasDave (in another thread) has been tracking similar plays all year and is hitting at a rate of 17-7ats, so I can't turn my back on it yet!
As for now, I'm still on the sidelines for this one... Holding a clipboard, taking notes...

Best of luck with your OVER play. Looks solid.

 

[QuittingWork]

Bottom line: there is nice value catching 6 on a home team in a divisional game.
Jac is also, statistically, a very average team in all aspects, thus they're capable of staying in any nfl game...whereas, say, trying to call out suckerbets on teams like oaktown or stl is really tough because they'll just no show in about 9-10 games a year.

 

[BAGIANT]

I think the Steelers might be the sucker play of the week! First of all, it's the first game on the schedule, and the line has already moved 2.5 points.

The Jags were the first game on the schedule last week and look what happened.

Steelers are facing their 4th strong defensive team in a row, and it just might take its toll this week.

This is my sucker play of the week!

 

[Twisted]

I think its Houston :think2:

 

[nd2000]

I think the Steelers might be the sucker play of the week! First of all, it's the first game on the schedule, and the line has already moved 2.5 points.

The Jags were the first game on the schedule last week and look what happened.

Steelers are facing their 4th strong defensive team in a row, and it just might take its toll this week.

This is my sucker play of the week!

Nah. Titans won't move the ball. Steelers are the best team in the AFC hands down. They deserve to be favored. Tennessee highly overrated. They may not even win a playoff game.

 

[gijoe]

I think Phil is a sucker bet.

 

[QuittingWork]

The steelers must fall--they're O is too weak. If ten wasn't a little banged up on d, I'd play em. Can't find an edge in tight matchup like this where 1 or 2 points is the spot...much better plays out there.
GL

 

[IndyNutFlush]

Question for AJreeb. I have been lurking/following the sucker bets since dondollars. This reverse line movement does look fishy with so much of the public on the Colts, but could the reverse line movement be due to key injuries, such as Marvin Harrison being out due to hamstring injury? Just a thought as to why the line movement. Personally, I am hoping for a colts win, but don't see them covering, so, i will be rooting for points, and the Over 44 as my play.