Week 14

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Oct 30, 2021
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Sure glad I laid off CFB yesterday, it's a losing proposition for me. I just don't have a good handle on it anymore, would've picked Bama and OSU.

Like a few games today but limiting myself to one... and beware as I am a Cincy fan and a Bills hater. One of the first rules of gambling is to never bet with your heart.

Cincy +6, large
Cincy ML, medium

The defense despite the bad season rankings is getting better. They're able to run more complex scheme, disguise coverages and run exotic blitzes, the latter 2 of which historically have given Josh fits. For Buffalo to win I believe they'll have to lean on Cook who could certainly gash Cincy's weak run D, not quite sure why Bal got away from it last game as they were having success. As bad as the matchup appears on paper for Buf O vs Cin D... I think the same can be said about the other side. Joe's never had an issue vs McD's scheme. They lack a pass rush, are not elite in the secondary and prefer to sit back in a zone. Good f'n luck doing that, Tee's back, OL has been improved and Chase Brown is a weapon. For Cincy to win I believe they'll receive the opening kick, score and keep their foot on the gas which will make Buffalo impatient and put the game in Josh's hands (which has NOT been a recipe for success this year). My only hesitance to going full out on this one is the splits, most of the money/best are on Cincy yet the spread has held steady at 5.5 or increased indicating reverse line movement.

Good luck everyone, will be back for the late slate.
 

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Push, should've bought the 1/2 pt...

Hou +5, medium. KC down 3 OL, the defense is leaking oil. Bettor beware, I have a horrible record betting for and against KC. Seems like a FG game to me.
 

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