Week 14:Winding Down

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YTD: 100-82, + 52.8 units

Went 4-1 on the 4*, but frittered some away on the 1* plays. Anyways, was going to keep the pot full for the bowl games, which can be $ much of the time. But I had to play this one early since it fit a lot of the criteria for a larger play:

5* Wisconsin -3 If you caught some of the PSU- MSU game Saturday, you might have noticed the celebratory mood of the Nittany Lions. They celebrated when Ohio State won, and then played their best football in the 2nd half when they knew they only had to play one great half to go to the Big Ten Championship Game. And they celebrated often then, hugging and dancing long before the game was sewn up. Even the announcers noted that. It makes me think that Penn State has already reached the height of a successful season, and this week's game is a bit post-climatic. I see a letdown coming. One of the keys to Penn State's success is their great RB, Saquon Barkley, and he left the MSU game early with his foot and ankle heavily wrapped. Barkley is more of the "guy", I think, than QB Tracy McSorley. McSorley is a freelancer at times, and make something out of nothing at times, but he has also been risking injury and fumbled the ball 8 times. McSorley is also inconsistent with his accuracy. PSU is missing 4 OL this year, and a fifth is questionable- Two are starters, one a new starter due to injury. This will likely be exploited by a great Wisconsin front 7. Wisconsin's defense has played incredibly well except for the beginning of last week's game with Minnesota, and the 2nd half vs. Ohio State. They are ranked 4th nationally in defensive efficiency, and in the top 10 in many other categories.

Even if Barkley plays, he likely won't be 100%, and the Wisky LBs will limit his big plays. After Michigan and Alabama, Wisconsin might have the next best LBs in college football. The Wisconsin secondary was a question mark going into the season, but has also proven to be stellar- 7th in pass completion % and only 8 passing TDs(4th). I really like games like this where a good, but not great team comes off a big win, and faces a defensive dynamo. A team that can run the ball well, and now has their senior QB, Bart Houston, starting again. Houston led his team back from a deficit last week, and for a game like this is the better alternative than freshman Hornibrook. Penn State got massacred by Michigan, a team that resembles Wisconsin. PSU also beat OSU at home, but I saw that game, and I still think the Buckeyes outplayed them. In Columbus, OSU wins 9 out of 10 times vs. Penn State, and sometimes by a lot.

Wisconsin is just one of the those gamer type teams. Beat USC in their bowl as a fairly large underdog, beat LSU, took OSU to OT, and has a memory from 2 years ago that they will point to as a "Never again" moment- their blowout loss to Ohio State in the Big 10 CG. The Badgers were looking ahead to this game when they fell behind Minnesota last week, while Penn State is going to have a hard time coming down from their high of last Saturday. Game is in Indianapolis.
 

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Great job this yr
 

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Fred........lov the play.........continue those winning ways this weekend............indy
 

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More likely the line change is because Barkley is likely to play- though I'll stand by my reasoning that he won't be 100% due to a leg/ ankle injury- and that Wisky can handle him.
 

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Fred you have had a lots of plays on Washington games this year any thoughts on them handling the 7?
 

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2* Oklahoma/ Oklahoma St.- over 77 A large part of this play is that no college football defense, except maybe Alabama and Michigan, can stop this Oklahoma offense. Especially now that their RBs are healthy. And even Alabama and Michigan would struggle to stop the OU offense, although would probably win due to the porous OU defense. And that's another part of this play. Oklahoma State will have to keep up with the scoring here. They do have a very good running game, and will use it, but I think Mason Rudolph and his receivers and RBs will exploit the swiss cheese OU secondary. Oklahoma also has many injuries in their front D7, although the replacements are serviceable and not without talent.

OU started the year with a young OL, but they have improved as the year has progressed, and OSU's OL is a veteran group that has also protected Rudolph better since the earlier games. Watching OU on offense, though, is a thing to behold. At WVU, which probably has the best D in the Big 12, they had 5 scoring drives by the late 2nd quarter of 96, 97, 78, 77 and 34 yards. And they made it look easy. I think OU sets the pace here, and that the Cowboys will pass often to keep up. There are so many playmakers here, many with an NFL future, that the defenses.. especially late in the season when their bodies are beaten up a bit..are at a disadvantage. Early game, with rain showers, but not enough to effect the game in a big way.
 

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1* WMU -18.5 My contention here is that there has NOT been a MAC team this good, and complete, in recent memory. That's WMU, and they can do it all. And indoors, their speed will be magnified instead of compromised by some soggy turf played out in the cold Great Lakes area. These MAC Championships have had a number of blowouts in the recent past due to mismatches like this one. Ohio has a fairly poor QB situation, and their running game is average by MAC standards. Ohio HC Solich, who does a good job with limited talent, has said they plan to stop the run, and take their chances with the WMU passing game, which has a 72% passer in Zach Terrell, a future high NFL draft choice in WR Corey Davis, and basically can beat you any way you choose. And Zach Terrell has 30 TDs to one interception- yes one. For Ohio to compete here, they'll have to run the ball very well because WMU's D is also tough. One of the deceptive things about WMU's defensive stats is that much of those yards and scoring of their opponents are done in garbage time, vs. 2nd stringers. WMU will be motivated as they have played their best football against their better opponents…and they are going for an undefeated season and a Cotton Bowl placement- which they deserve IF they stay undefeated.


1* Colorado +7.5 Hard to play against the Huskies. They are also a complete team. Yet in their USC loss, and in some other wins, you can see they have some flaws. Colorado will have to pressure Browning. Colorado has the DL to do it, but they'll likely have to blitz an extra defender too. The UDub OL has grown this year, but they are not so good that a creative blitz package devised by DC Jim Leavitt can't cause some havoc in the UW backfield. Both teams have excellent secondaries, and it'll be interesting to see if Colorado or UW will use mostly single coverage and use their extra man to stop the run. I also think that Colorado has shown all year that they can battle with anyone- even Michigan- until Liafau got hurt. Liafau is definitely going to play, and I doubt that his dings and bruises stop him from running the ball. Although UW has a great HC in Chris Petersen, the entire Colorado coaching staff deserves accolades for transforming the Buffaloes into the team they've become. UW also lost one of their best defenders in Azeem Victor, an emotional leader- and earlier lost LBs Joe Mathis(a starter) and LB Sean Constatine, a contributor. This should help the CU running game.
 

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1* ULL/ ULM- under 57 Now this game should be played in heavy rain, with winds about 10-15 mph, and a wind chill in the mid-40s. The total was just 59 last night so some money hit this one anticipating bad weather. There's more to this than weather. ULL has a pretty stout run defense, having two 300+ DTs, and two inside linebackers that clog up the middle well. Against Georgia, outside of 2 long runs, they held the Bulldogs to about 3.8 ypc. All season, ULL has had low scoring games- mostly because they run the ball a lot, and have a short passing game. I'm not sure how ULM is going to score much here. ULM has a fairly poor run game to go with a freshman QB that is struggling with accuracy and is still rather raw. But ULM is playing in their last game of the season, at home, and should bring some emotion to this game. Hopefully they'll play defense with THAT in mind. With the weather as it is, these two run-heavy teams will slog through four quarters, burning the clock, with ULL having some success(they at least have a playmaker RB). ULL has rarely topped 57 in any of their games.
 

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Short memory Fred? How about Northern Illinois' run that led to Orange Bowl BCS game in 2013. GL this weekend.

~T~
 

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Short memory Fred? How about Northern Illinois' run that led to Orange Bowl BCS game in 2013. GL this weekend.

~T~
You mean the one that beat kent State in their final game in double OT, and then got pounded by FSU in the Orange Bowl. I remember. They weren't as good as this WMU team.
 

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Ohio has 23 points off of 213 yards. Usually that's about 3-10 points. This game has been frustrating watching WMU settle for FGs, drop passes, and generally get too conservative. Still, maybe 18 points is just too much.
 

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1* Navy/Temple- over 60 This line is just too low to lay off. I know how good Temple's D is, but they might struggle with a more unorthodox offense like Navy's. They did have a hard time with Army, but that was the first game of the year. Still, prepping during a week for Navy is never easy. Another overlooked factor is what Temple should do to the weak Navy defense. I'd be surprised if Temple didn't pass a little more due to the Navy secondary's issues. This is the type of game that even with lots of running, the score could get up there. Temple's D, while well-coached and fairly talented, has given up some big plays as in their USF, Memphis and PSU games. Also, in these championship type games, both OCs will have some extra wrinkles in their game plan.
 

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The whole card went down in flames. Due, I guess. Thought Wisconsin's D would play much better than they did. Will update record in the BOWL Thread, which will include Army-Navy game.
 

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