Week 14 come back working. Knot on wood

[StreetSmart2019]

Action………………………4-7…………………..-2759.00
Investment……………….28-32………………-12,384.00
Total …………………..…..32-39……………….-15,243.00


NYJ +3……………………………….1500.00. -108………….LOST. -1620

BALT -6……………………………..1500.00. -105………….LOST. -1575

BUF -5.5…………………………….2000.00. -108…………LOST. -2160

DEN -7.5……………………………..2000.00. -108………LOST. -2160

CHI +6.5…………………………….2000.00. -108……….LOST. -2160.

With 8 weeks To Go ……truly believe I will not have a winning season

the good part of this week normally bet 13k a week……this week I cut it down to 11k all plays.


A

Ace all you need are back-to-back great weeks to get back towards the black. Seen you do it many times throughout the years. Not over yet buddy!

 

[skoda]

What has happened in the NFL? If the new era is upon us Chargers should win tonight butt….. Regardless Barkley scoring @ 105 is tempting! Wonder why no prop on penalties

 

[MotorCityMadman]

Why not buy to 7 on both -i do all the time -money cost is small compared to to 2 big losses -tough losses

Gamblers have selective thinking. You only remember what you want to justify your reasoning for your actions..Buying a half point to cross key numbers like 3 and 7 in NFL betting is a common strategy because those margins of victory are the most frequent, but data suggests it's generally not profitable long-term due to the increased cost (vig).
Key Statistics on Margins of Victory
3 points: Approximately 14.4% to 15.7% of NFL games end with a 3-point margin, making it the single most common outcome.
7 points: Between 9% and 10% of NFL games end with a 7-point margin, the second most common outcome.
Betting Implications
Buying to 3 or 7: When you buy a half point to move a line (e.g., from +2.5 to +3 or from +6.5 to +7), you are covering the two most frequent potential "push" or "loss by half-point" scenarios.
Cost vs. Value: Sportsbooks charge a premium for half-points around these key numbers (often costing 15 to 25 cents of juice instead of the standard 10 cents).
Long-Term Profitability: While you turn potential pushes into wins more often, the extra juice required means you need a higher win percentage to break even (e.g., needing to win 57.45% of the time at -135 odds instead of 52.38% at -110 odds).
Professional Advice: Most professional bettors advise against routinely buying points, as the cost typically outweighs the statistical benefit over hundreds of bets, making it a negative expectation play in the long run.
In short: the numbers 3 and 7 are hugely important, but sportsbooks price the half-point moves accordingly, often making it a bad bet mathematically.

 

[slapshot]

If you're thinking about buying a .5 are you looking at the wrong game or the wrong team?

 

[MotorCityMadman]

If you're thinking about buying a .5 are you looking at the wrong game or the wrong team?

Both

 

[Mofome2]

Ace good luck with Chargers tonight. I personally do not now how they win with Herbert and a surgically repaired hand and a cast if he plays

 

[MotorCityMadman]

I see already one of our astute handicappers G-Man on the board pointed out two games that he bet would have been worth a 1 point buy. The only thing wrong with that he forgot about the thousands of dollars that he had lost already buying points. That's what you call a perfect example of Gambler selective memory. He only pointed out the good not the bad.

 

[ACE-ACE]

Action………………………4-7…………………..-2759.00
Investment……………….28-32………………-12,384.00
Total …………………..…..32-39……………….-15,243.00


NYJ +3……………………………….1500.00. -108………….LOST. -1620

BALT -6……………………………..1500.00. -105………….LOST. -1575

BUF -5.5…………………………….2000.00. -108…………LOST. -2160

DEN -7.5……………………………..2000.00. -108………LOST. -2160

CHI +6.5…………………………….2000.00. -108……….LOST. -2160.

LAC +3……………………………….2000.00. -112
need it

Ace

 

[jchooker]

GL Ace... Havent looked yet but if Herbert gets shot up enough should be aight... lol

 

[ACE-ACE]

Gamblers have selective thinking. You only remember what you want to justify your reasoning for your actions..Buying a half point to cross key numbers like 3 and 7 in NFL betting is a common strategy because those margins of victory are the most frequent, but data suggests it's generally not profitable long-term due to the increased cost (vig).
Key Statistics on Margins of Victory
3 points: Approximately 14.4% to 15.7% of NFL games end with a 3-point margin, making it the single most common outcome.
7 points: Between 9% and 10% of NFL games end with a 7-point margin, the second most common outcome.
Betting Implications
Buying to 3 or 7: When you buy a half point to move a line (e.g., from +2.5 to +3 or from +6.5 to +7), you are covering the two most frequent potential "push" or "loss by half-point" scenarios.
Cost vs. Value: Sportsbooks charge a premium for half-points around these key numbers (often costing 15 to 25 cents of juice instead of the standard 10 cents).
Long-Term Profitability: While you turn potential pushes into wins more often, the extra juice required means you need a higher win percentage to break even (e.g., needing to win 57.45% of the time at -135 odds instead of 52.38% at -110 odds).
Professional Advice: Most professional bettors advise against routinely buying points, as the cost typically outweighs the statistical benefit over hundreds of bets, making it a negative expectation play in the long run.
In short: the numbers 3 and 7 are hugely important, but sportsbooks price the half-point moves accordingly, often making it a bad bet mathematically.

could not said it better….and The fact I think I’m picking a game that will win by more than 7 point….if the line is7.5. In my head it should win by 14…..

 

[ACE-ACE]

If you're thinking about buying a .5 are you looking at the wrong game or the wrong team?

Amen !!

 

[ACE-ACE]

GL Ace... Havent looked yet but if Herbert gets shot up enough should be aight... lol

He playing

 

[jchooker]

He playing

Oh I know he is gona play... Line tells u that.. lol