Week 13

[OverThinker]

15-7 +1180 since beginning to post 3 weeks ago. Tailed off and missed a few Sunday afternoon then night when donks defense blows a 8 point lead in final 2 minutes, can't believe how tired and pathetic they looked with the game on the line vs a avg kc offense. Still a 6-2 week counting thanksgiving so can't complain. this weeks card feels a little tougher but hopefully we can find some winners..

donks/jags 1st half under 19.5 (1x)

mia+3.5 (1x)

kc+6 (1x)

ill do some writeups and have few more plays later on, out having few drinks at moment

 

[XSPower]

Good luck my friend.....

 

[OverThinker]

Good luck my friend.....

Thank u sir. GL to you as well!

 

[OverThinker]

Played Mia before I knew how many oline guys were coming back, I suspected at least 1 and wanted to make sure I got the hook as I think this a fg and defensive battle. Turns out Tunsil and Albert both back so the oline is almost all the way back, still missing pouncy but way better off than they been last few weeks.. bottom line is this the same number balty just laid to the undermanned bungals, I rate phins better on a neutral field so I see plenty of value getting the 3.5 here in a game I actually think Mia has a real good shot at winning..

simply couldnt pass on chiefs once that line hit 6, falcons have a habit of letting teams stick around and kc just too sound to not be in this game late.

Would have loved to get on the den/jags under sooner as line started nose diving as injuries mounted on both sides. The defenses are both far and away better than opposing offenses here and that before considering donks starting their rookie qb and jags are just decimated with hurns, ivory, pretty sure te also out. My only real concern here is the qbs scoring for the wrong team, my hope is we only see one defensive td in the 1st half, if that the case I don't think the offenses will be able to muster the other 13 points nessisary to beat me here. Not gonna lie I'd love to have 20 instead of 19.5 but still thought it was worth a 1u play here.,

 

[OverThinker]

Adding 1u to Mia +3.5 -115. Just needed to know about the oline guys and was also real unsure on Parker who is a go which I think a pretty big deal for several reasons, 1st and foremost the kid a game changer and looks to be figuring it out recently, plus with smith back at corner for Balt now phins have 3 legit weapons with Parker and stills on outside and Landry handling the underneath stuff: smith can't cover them all and Ravens other corners can be beat..

I'm definitely gonna be on the bills as well I just been eying that number all week hoping to catch the hook at some point as much like last week think this game be really close. Bills run game will give oak fits, with Watkins back they will also be able to match oak big play ability. Really think Bills catch oak looking ahead to kc here and are a little more physical than raiders can handle in this one. Just wanting best line possible and raiders much like Dallas are public darlings so keep thinking the line will creep up at some point before kickoff.

 

[OverThinker]

Bills+3 (2x)

 

[OverThinker]

2-1 on early games but shit the bed adding to phins who were obviously in no way the right call, I will say there no damn way Ravens that much if at all better than Mia IMO, clearly phins weren't up to challenge today. Bills pending and 1 more for tonight..

panthers/sea over 43.5 (1.5x).. was hoping to have a chance to snag this at less than 44.. seachickens will sure up their blocking if the oline has any pride after last weeks embarrassment, anytime Wilson gets time against this secondary he will pick them apart. On other side Scam and company have faired pretty well vs this d probably because it vulnerable up the seem and Olson does a lot of work there. Scam will probably hand over a score at some point as well. I like the seachickens to score between 27-31 and just don't think it be a issue for panthers to take care of the rest..