Week 13 VICTORY FROM OHIO picks. 21-8 year to date. Discussion, analysis and eventually picks

victory · Nov 27, 2014

Rough end to last week with losses in 4 of my last 5 picks. Unfortunately a few were bad beats with my teams winning but not covering the spread. That's why they call it gambling and why you should NEVER go "all in" even if it seems like a "lock of the century". I'm still confident in my methods and tell everyone to feel free to follow, fade or pass. 21-8 on posted plays year to date.

Thanksgiving day games
1. Chicago at Detroit
I'm not really seeing a side I like here and I generally hate the bigger point spreads. Detroit is struggling to score points right now and has just managed 5 field goals of scoring in the last 2 games. Detroit ranks 28th in the league scoring by averaging just 17.9 points per game. Stafford is the 26th rated passer and has thrown 6 interceptions in the last 5 games. However, Detroit still has managed to win more games since they allow the fewest points per game in the league (17.3 points per game). Also with Detroit's offensive line banged up and Cutler expected to turn the ball over (10 turnovers in the last 5 games) I expect a low scoring game. I think the Bears will do lots of running with Matt Forte which also will help chew up the clock. Also of note is that the Bears are scoreless in the 1st quarter in the last 6 games! In addition 4 of the last 6 Chicago games have gone under along with 9 of the last 10 Detroit games. All this leads me to take UNDER 47.5 for a MEDIUM wager

2. Philadelphia at Dallas
Philadelphia is definitely a much different team away from home; they have lost 3 of their last 4 on the road including a 33 point beating on their last road game in Green Bay. I have no faith in Sanchez in this situation and think that the Dallas defense tightens up and gives him too much to handle. Sanchez has thrown 4 interceptions in the last 2 games while the Dallas defense has had an interception in each of the last 4 games. Romo seems to be peaking now with 7 TDs and no interceptions in the last 2 games. I see Romo and Bryant having a field day against the Eagles 30th ranked pass defense. If Murray gets off to a great start running the ball I see the Dallas offense opening it up with some play action passes. This all leads me to take Dallas minus 3 for a HUGE wager (bought 1/2 point to get at -130)

3. Seattle at San Francisco
I do not see an edge on a side or total here; this is probably going to be a great defensive battle. SF has had 16 points determine the last 4 games and I expect this one to be a close one too. This is one I'll watch and just hope to see a great game. I'm still evaluating this game but most likely will not wager on it.

Recap: 21-8 year to date
1. UNDER 47 1/2 Chicago/Detroit for a MEDIUM wager
2. Dallas minus 3 for a HUGE wager (bought 1/2 point for -130)
3. No play on Seattle/SF

Still working on the Sunday games but I do see some good ones there. Good luck to all and Happy Thanksgiving! Remember to only wager what you can truly afford to lose.

texansfan · Nov 27, 2014

I would like to jump on Dallas but man, I'm just having doubts. Good luck on all your bets victory.

Addicted2quack · Nov 27, 2014

Victory I've been watching your picks but not following... A little bird in the trees on this site is big on dallas too..... So I'll bite on it... Let's win some money kid. Bol

indiana · Nov 27, 2014

Vic..........you and your family enjoy the holiday..........BOL with all your week end action............indy

victory · Nov 27, 2014

On to the Sunday games; big card this week since no teams on bye and I see a lot that I like:

1. San Diego at Baltimore
I've been successful in the past wagering against West Coast teams having to play a 1pm eastern standard time game. I don't have the statistic but this fact alone has me excited. I already made cash wagering against San Diego when they got destroyed 37-0 in a 1pm game vs. Miami 3 weeks ago. Flacco is playing very well for Baltimore and their defense is really starting to come together. Baltimore is very tough this year at home and have allowed 7,7,10, and 6 points in their last 4 home games. In those last 4 home games the Baltimore victory margin has been 14, 22, 28 and 20 points. Even though San Diego hopes that Ryan Matthews again performs well, the Baltimore defense has held rushers to less than 100 yards in 21 straight games. For these reasons I take Baltimore minus 6 1/2 for a MEDIUM wager (and I expect this number to go to 7 by kickoff)

2. NY Giants at Jacksonville
Quite simply this is Eli Manning vs Blake Bortles and I'll take Eli in this matchup anytime. These are statistically 2 of the worst defenses and I expect Eli to tear up the Jags via the passing attack. Jacksonville is 2nd to last in offense and I don't think they can keep up with the Giants passing attack. As long as the Giants offensive line can slow down the pass rush I see the Giants winning this one. Thus I'm taking NY Giants minus 3 for a MEDIUM wager

3. Cincinnati at Tampa
The AFC North is 10-1-1 vs the NFC South and I think this domination continues here. Cincy has won 4 of their last 5 and Tampa is 0-5 at home this year. Cincy offensively is just starting to find their groove and I expect AJ Green to have another big game. Tampa has their problems with rushing this year and looked pretty bad with their 4 turnovers last week against Chicago. Thus, I'm taking Cincinnati minus 4 points for a HUGE wager

4. New Orleans at Pittsburgh
Same stat as above with the AFC North dominating the NFC South (10-1-1). Pittsburgh is well rested coming off a bye and the Saints are coming off short rest by playing on Monday night. At home, the Steelers have been amazing lately with Big Ben having 18 TDs and only 1 INT at home this year. The Steelers defensively should be better with Ike Taylor and Polamalu returning back from injuries. Bell should have another terrific game as the Saints could not stop Baltimore's rushing attack in their last game. I think Antonio Brown can have a big game as well. Thus I'm taking Pittsburgh minus 4 1/2 points for a HUGE wager

5. Carolina at Minnesota
Carolina is 0-5-1 in their last 6 games and they are an awful team. Carolina is coming off a bye but I don't think it will help them much. Cam Newton has thrown 5 INTs in the last 2 games. After seeing the Vikings keep it close vs Green Bay last week I see them as the much better team. Thus I take Minnesota minus 2 1/2 for a HUGE wager (I expect this to become minus 3 by kickoff)

6. Washington at Indianapolis
While I'm not a McCoy fan, he's an upgrade right now from RG3. I think the team will respond with some fight and spark as a result of the QB change. In Washington's 6 road games, their biggest loss was by 11 points. Thus, the team will usually try to at least keep the games close. I don't see Washington winning but I think spotting Washington 10 points is too much here. Thus I'm taking Washington plus 10 points for a SMALL wager

RECAP for SUNDAY games:
1. Baltimore minus 6 1/2 (MEDIUM wager)
2. NY Giants minus 3 (MEDIUM wager)
3. Cincinnati minus 4 (HUGE wager)
4. Pittsburgh minus 4 1/2 (HUGE wager)
5. Minnesota minus 2 1/2 (HUGE wager)
6. Washington plus 10 (SMALL wager)

Good luck to all!

Eli10 · Nov 27, 2014

Good luck and happy Thanksgiving!

United · Nov 27, 2014

Good luck V

thanks for the time and effort you put in your plays

JJphilly · Nov 27, 2014

Good luck..happy thanksgiving

palehose1 · Nov 27, 2014

Wilson VS Kaperstink Ill take Wilson +1 so no spread to cover. Agree on all but will add Detroit -7 I know these Bears and Im about 90% on them over the years today Detroits Def scores twice Final 27-13 Detroit. BOL