Week 13: Turkey, Football and Time Off

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Love this weekend for the above reasons. It's one of the few times during the fall that sports fans can relax and eat too much, watching way more football than is normally acceptable.

Last week the overs killed the card. Temple, Memphis, UCF… all of a sudden played some defense. Lost a few units. YTD: 104-89, -5.05 units

1* Air Force -14 (-120) Bet it last night, didn't post it, and now it's up to 15 or 14.5. CSU gave it all last weekend in their loss to Utah State. But this team has got two major problems that Air Force will exploit. A terrible OL that has some injuries. This is good for AF since they are a bit undersized, and need to depend on speed and numbers to defend most teams. The other issue for CSU is that their defense really gets exposed beyond the 1st level of the DL. Poor tackling, poor coverage, and missed assignments in the back 7. Air Force playing for a possible bowl game, at home, and I think CSU might mail it in. The Air Force QB also has some decent passing skills, by military academy standards.

1* Ole Miss +11 Ole Miss would have no chance if this game was played any other time during the season, but these rivalry games can yield surprising results. The Egg Bowl definitely included. Underdogs have done well over the years. Ole Miss has nothing to lose, and expect to see the kitchen sink thrown at the Bulldogs. It might backfire, but I'm thinking Ole Miss will try to pass almost every play, using Ta'amu's mobility as a way to offset MSU's defensive dominance on the front line. Ole Miss' D will have to also overcommit to the run, which could leave their corners exposed to single coverage. If Fitz is on passing-wise, it's going to be an ugly day for the Rebels. Ole Miss is very good at moving down the field to the red zone, but will have to get more than FGs to stay in this one.

 

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Tail SEC Player, fade my Ole Miss pick. Props to his great write-ups and consistent winning. Friday is a nice card in my estimation.

5* WVU +3 Oklahoma's defense and the home field advantage are huge factors here that can't be overlooked. West Virginia melted down in the 4th quarter @ Okie State last week, but they are arguably the 3rd best defense in the Big 12. They are 30th nationally in defensive efficiency and right behind TCU and Iowa State. Trey Sermon likely doesn't play for the Sooners, although their freshman RB looks every bit as good running - just not as experienced at pass protection or receiving. The Kansas run explosion last week was not the exception for this Sooner defense, it is the norm. And that is with a mediocre OL. Oklahoma has definitely looked beatable away from home this year.

5* Oregon State +18.5 The Ducks never, ever seem to play a 60 minute game, and nearly blew a big lead last week at home to ASU. The Beavers are at home, have nothing to lose, and I expect a lot of creativity from HC Jonathan Smith. The Beavs will grind out long drives at times, keeping the Duck offense off the field. And Oregon has had trouble vs. the run in the last many weeks. OSU has a decent OL, a strong running attack, and with QB Jake Luton, a respectable passer. Expect to see the running QBs also get some playing time, both in the wildcat, and behind center. Oregon and OSU both have some injuries and dinged up players. I just think this game means far more to the Beavers than the Ducks, and this is their bowl game. The Beavs have been down big margins in many games, but never quit. They'll play this to win, and and just might do it.

 

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4* Memphis -7 Much of this play is based on injured QB D'eriq King. He is an amazing player who makes this Houston offense dynamic. Without him this year, and with their terrible D, they maybe go 5-7 at this point. Clayton Tune is the freshman that will likely play. He's talented but raw. He is not anything close to what King gave them running or passing. Memphis played kind of flat last week vs. SMU, but I think they were looking ahead to this game. Their offense comes to life vs. better competition, and they have this game at home. Memphis is a creative offense that knows how to score in the red zone. I think we'll see a mismatch here vs. the Cougars for at least parts of this game.

2* ECU/ UC- over 50.5 Got burned last week with 3 overs, but I like this one anyways. ECU will throw the ball about 45-55 times here, completing some, in completing some. The clock will stop on the in completes, and on 1st downs. ECU will move quickly to snap the ball. Holton Ahlers, their freshman, QB, is their offense, period. If he gets hurt, take UC on the live play. He is quite the player, as he is a threat to move around to find the open man, take off running, and is capable of hitting almost any pass. We can see last week, and vs. USF, that this UC defense is good, but has some weaknesses. ECU also plays defense like they want the ball back offensively. I expect UC to run the score up here, and can do it running the ball often. UC plays inspired after last week's loss..at home.

 

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1* Arkansas/ Missouri- over 61.5 The spread of 23 seems ridiculously high, but the Hogs are decimated in the secondary. Suspension, injuries…they have glaring holes this week. Their defense has played woefully all year, but injuries all over has also made their depth a problem. I was torn between playing Missouri here 1H, and still might, because the Mizzou defense is better than expected. I still think they'll drop 45+ on Arkansas, and then give up some garbage time scores. Arkansas has some resemblance of an offense, and it looks like RB Rakeem Boyd will play, giving them some running options.

1* Washington +3 I have won and lost with Wazzu this year. I still think they are not as good as their record indicates. They have an underrated QB, Minshew, who I think is the PAC 12 player of the Year. But their defense is still suspect, and I think UW runs the ball effectively on them. The Cougs are overdue for "Couging It" and they are going against an excellent HC, Chris Petersen, here. His team has been a disappointment this year, but a win here changes all that to get them into the PAC 12 championship game. I also think the Huskies have the secondary that can somewhat offset the Coug passing game. Beware of looking too much into last week's crushing of Arizona. The Wildcats seemed to hate playing in the cold, and allowed the Cougars receivers huge cushions all night. The Huskies need a good game from Browning, not a spectacular game. The Huskies have lost 2 games where they outplayed their opponent…Oregon and Auburn. Their Cal game could have gone either way. This team is a few plays from 10-1 or 11-0.

 

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1* Bowling Green +14.5 Bowling Green off a two game winning streak on the road. Coming home to play good UB team, but one that is reeling off of a blowout to Ohio. Bowling Green has played well under their interim coach, and yes they have played a tough schedule.. Oregon, Maryland, Georgia Tech…Ohio, Miami OH, Toledo. They need to feed the ball to Andrew Clair, who has been pretty good all season, and at about 8 yards per carry his last two games. BG also has a more than capable passing QB, who would look even better if their competition hadn't been so good. Buffalo is everybody's darling after two seasons of surprising wins, but their QB seems out of sorts at times completing passes, and really, this offense is more of an effective run-based offense than you might think. I think BG stays in this game offensively, and a time consuming Buffalo offense.

1* UCF -14 Charlie Strong was a train wreck at Texas, and without Quinton Flowers, and others who are gone from last season, seems to be screwing up this year's team. They started the season 7-0 off of a poor cream- puff schedule, and lots of luck. Now they are off of a 4 game losing streak, and he and his OC are taking heat for being out-coached and undisciplined. They have a young OL, and a defense that tackles poorly and commits stupid penalties. I don't think this game will be a home game for the Bulls. About a third will be rooting for USF, a third for UCF, and another third who want to see if UCF can continue their streak. That third will eventually cheer on UCF to win. USF has really been atrocious in their past 6 games- an 8 point win over UConn, a lucky win over Tulsa, a blowout loss to Houston, an even worse loss at home to Tulane, a UC game that was respectable in only losing by 12, and last week's 2nd H meltdown to temple in which they turned the ball over 4 times, and gained about 20 yards total 2H.. at home. UCF wins here easily in a semi-home game.

 

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10* Notre Dame -11 I don't care if this is everybody's favorite play, Notre Dame should win this easily. Here are the few concerns: USC gets an early lead and feels confident enough to hang in there (my biggest concern)…. Notre Dame is thinking ahead to the playoff too much and not focusing here on this game(very little concern)…USC has nothing to lose and plays much better because they have no pressure. Nah. USC and their coaching staff has been terrible motivating/ coaching the last 5 weeks, only beating Oregon State. This coaching staff is terrible at adjusting in-game, and in prepping for games. If not for the name "USC", and and some talent sprinkled here and there, Notre Dame is basically playing a less than average PAC 12 team that motivates them ONLY because it is USC.

USC has grumbling coming from every place possible. The WRs are wondering why Daniels is still the QB instead of Sears, why Daniels favors WR St. Brown. The NFL talent is more concerned about being healthy for the draft(which is typical at USC, and not just this year). The players know Helton is gone, and are completely uninspired by his cliches and pat speeches. The fans would love to beat ND, but are more interested in seeing Helton gone, and a new coach hired. Kiffin, Sark, Helton…the true fans know they have been cheated out of competent coaching for years.

Notre Dame has had their less than stellar games- Pitt, Vandy, Ball State. But they play "UP" for the better teams- manhandling Syracuse, FSU, VT, Stanford. Their win over Michigan was early in the season, and I tend to discount early wins, but they showed all season that they know how to come up big in these type of games. Also, the back door cover is unlikely here as USC might quit 2H at some point, and Wimbush and the ND run game will more than likely add on to the final score than hurt it. The Notre Dame defense is the best, easily, that USC has seen. And in playing Utah, Cal and Texas, the only three defenses that were pretty good, USC looked bad. Real bad. USC's terrible run D last week showed that their line play is regressing. In fact, they seem to lack physicality on both lines.

USC injuries have weakened their depth. Notre Dame is healthy and if they play this game and stay focused ONLY on this game, it should be an a** kicking.

 

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3* Baylor/ Texas Tech -under 64 The high flying score-fests of the past are far into the past. One factor I like here is that both teams have weak offensive lines at this point of the season. It has affected how they call their plays, calling more runs and short passes. Tech will likely be without Jett Duffey and Bowman, although it hasn't been announced. Tech also has played pretty well defensively compared to past Tech teams. Baylor has a dinged up QB in Charlie Brewer…more beaten and bruised than injured. He's been sacked 27 times, and knocked around a whole lot more. Other than their win over Okie State, this Baylor offense has scored about 16 points a game for the last five. I think we see more of a total in the 45-50 range.

3* Utah State +3 Boise impressed everyone in coming from behind to beat Fresno, but I still think they are overrated. The defense has too many injuries, the running game is so-so, and while Rypien is an accurate passer, he can be turnover prone at times, and I think Utah State will pressure him knowing he's the linchpin to Boise's success. Utah State escaped a close win last week probably looking ahead to this game. And Boise has had their difficulties at home the past few years, so their home field advantage is not what it is thought to be. Utah State brings a better offense than Fresno's, including a very good OL, a QB that is a playmaker in the pocket, moving around the backfield and a threat to break off big runs. They have a hurry up offense that is tough to get ready for play after play. Utah State also, IMO, has the better defense. Their defensive efficiency is about 15 places better than Boise. And who has scored the most points off of the #1 D in the country, Michigan St? Why it's Utah State at 31.

 

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1* Rutgers +27 Michigan State has a hard time scoring against everybody, and Rutgers is pretty bad, but I'm not sure MSU gets to 27 here. The under might be the better play? Rutgers has been improving defensively so they could make this interesting if they get anything offensively- say 10-13 points. MSU is off of so many grueling games that they might also take Rutgers lightly. Or maybe they thrash them in frustration. This one unit says Rutgers can keep MSU within 4 scores.

1.5* App. State/ Troy- under 46.5 These two teams have easily the best defenses in the Sun Belt. They lead in all defensive categories. They each have very good secondaries, and pretty stout DLs. Troy has 3 of their top WRs injured, but likely playing. That might explain the large spread. Either way, I think their QB, Sawyer Smith struggles here on the road vs. App. State's D. Troy has done an excellent job getting defensive players in transfers and from the JC ranks. They have to play good D to stay in this game. Both offenses, especially App. St, have inflated offensive numbers from some of the wet noodles they play in-conference. Snow and rain in the AM, just cold during game time.

 

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1* UAB -3 UAB and MTSU both lost respectably last week to SEC teams, but UAB has the edge in this matchup. They are a senior laden team that is the leading defense in Conference USA. they have a lot of team speed on both sides of the ball. And I think they can affect QB Stockstill's passing attack a bit here…more than other teams. They have an excellent DC, David Reeves, a semi-finalist for the Broyles award, which goes to the top asst. coaches. Other than a loss at the beginning of the season to CCU, this D has been stellar. UAB also has the better running game which could keep the MTSU offense off of the field.

1* Maryland +14 Trace McSorly is just not the same player with a bum knee. His runs are a big part of the PSU offense, bailing them out on many 3rd downs. His right knee is his planting knee when throwing and it looks like his passing is also effected. Maryland can't play much defense or pass very well, but their running game can eat clock and get to the end zone. Penn State has played fairly well defensively, but they just can't make up for a huge drop-off offensively. Poor OL play, no Barkley, no Hamilton…and well, you get the picture.

1* Kansas State +13 They are playing better defensively, and the Cyclones are not exactly a high scoring offense. The grass field at Trice is also something that can slow down the game a bit. Kansas State actually has a chance at a .500, and though they have no business with teams like Oklahoma, they can run the ball well enough here to use the clock, and keep the ISU offense off the field. Purdy is a very good freshman QB, but lately has shown some of his inexperience. He needs to learn to give up on plays, avoid the sack or TO, and live to fight another play.

1* UNT -14 1H UTSA has no offense, and UNT is a complete team that has Mason Fine. UNT runs up the score here early and even has a decent contingent of fans attending this road game. The UTSA QB play is a mess.

 

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Still can't believe the Beavers laid down like that! Herbert was out the whole 2nd half, and they hardly threw the ball.

1* Alabama -7 1Q Good chance of a push on this but what the hell.

 

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1* Alabama/ Auburn- under 52.5 The spread looks about right here, but I'm not sure how Auburn will score much. The Auburn DL and secondary might present the Bama offense with something similar to what Miss. State did, and keep Tua under pressure a lot and passing quicker and shorter.

 

[HacheMan]

GL fred

 

[the1yankee]

Well u read that ND game perfect for this game not to go in ND favor, early momentum by Trojans, I liked em a lot too, glad I only wasted half of my profits from all of Saturday. Good write-up tho, b GL goin into playoffs n bowls