Week 13: Three 4*s

[ofred]

YTD: 91-73, +46.2 units -2.8 units last week


4* Arizona State -3 (-105) After watching these two teams play each a couple of times in the 2nd half of the season, I think there is no comparison. Arizona is the bottom of the PAC 12 and they proved it Saturday with their butt-whipping by the Beavers. The 25 point loss could have been even worse but the Beavers took mercy on AU in the 4th quarter. What was so demoralizing to Arizona was that the Beavers were running the same 3-4 plays over and over again, mostly runs, and there was nothing they could do to stop them. Arizona looks weak and slow on defense, and with their 3 freshmen in the secondary, they are over their heads there too. Even Rich Rod said his team is too slow, too small, and too weak to shed blocks. OSU was missing for most of the game their star WR, Bolden…and Seth Collins, who is their 3rd best receiver -for the whole game. Their top RB, Ryan Nall, was playing with a bad foot, and still dominated. On offense, Arizona has an OL that will get beaten up by the ASU front 7 and Brandon Dawkins, or Anu Solomon(who likely is injured), will be running around with no time to pass, and using WR Samajie Grant as their running option. Grant broke off some good runs vs. Colorado in the first week they tried this, but last week, OSU knew what was coming and shut it down.

Arizona has a multitude of injuries, and even though this is their rivalry game with ASU, they will get worn down by sheer attrition over 60 minutes. ASU has also looked dreadful this season, but ASU at least has a QB that can pass a bit, and a running game with an OL that is average, and probably better than that vs. a weak Arizona front. I think ASU's running game will be the difference maker here. ASU also has a terrible pass defense, but that shouldn't be as much a problem vs. Dawkins, who has completed just 46% of his passes in the last 4 weeks, with more interceptions than TDs. Dawkins was a dangerous runner, but teams have learned to shadow him with a linebacker or two, and he has not been breaking off as many big runs. The ASU run defense and pass rush can also be a difference maker in a game where the AU OL is struggling to protect and run block. ASU playing for a bowl spot, and I'll have to give them credit for playing hard until the end vs. UW and Utah. ASU wins this game on being the more physical team, and having more offensive options.

 

[ofred]

Other 4*s coming..

 

[ProphetablePicks]

ASU only had 15 rushing yards against Wash.Over the last seven games, ASU has averaged 73 rushing yards. They also may use Sterling Cole a bunch of reps @ QB. ASU also has numerous injuries. I know teams very well. Usually win $$ on this game. Still looking at it.

 

[ofred]

4* Temple -20.5 I think ECU is probably as disheartened as any team this coming week. They have given up 166 points the last 3 weeks, and they know they can't stop anyone. This was a poor defense all season, but now seems to have given up completely. They now travel to Philadelphia for a final game, playing a Temple team that has played great defense week after week. Temple has a 5 game win streak, which could have been 8 if not for an unlucky road loss to Memphis. Temple out-gained Memphis by over 200 yards, but lost it due to a special team TD and a couple of turnovers in the 3rd quarter. Literally, Temple has played about 2-3 bad quarters during those 8 games. Temple's D will offset any ECU offense with turnovers, great pass coverage, and a relentless pass rush. Temple is about the only team that has kept USF in check. Temple is not a high scoring team, but they are very good at driving the ball down the field, converting in the red zone, and working off short fields due to their defense and special teams. Mainly, though, I just can't see ECU matching Temple's enthusiasm. The defenses are polar opposites, and Temple is playing this game to claim their division lead in the AAC, and play in the AAC championship game. They remember how disappointed they felt in how last season ended, and won't let down even late in the game.

ECU likely starts sophomore Gardner Minshaw again, whom being a pocket passer, will feel a whole different kind of pressure vs. Temple than vs. a weak Navy defense.

 

[ofred]

ASU only had 15 rushing yards against Wash.Over the last seven games, ASU has averaged 73 rushing yards. They also may use Sterling Cole a bunch of reps @ QB. ASU also has numerous injuries. I know teams very well. Usually win $$ on this game. Still looking at it.

Arizona injuries just seem to be giving playing time to players who look undersized, slow and not ready for the physical nature of PAC 12 football. As for Sterling-Cole, hopefully Graham uses him as a running option only. I know ASU's running game has not done much, but I think that changes here vs. this Arizona front. Sort of like UCLA not running well all season, but then running well vs. a weak Beaver front 7 two weeks ago. In my eye test, Arizona looks like boys playing men.

 

[ofred]

4* Troy -26.5 This is a crazy spread for a road team, but I can explain why it's so. Troy bombed out last week vs. Arkansas State, a team that has won 6 in a row and likely has the best talent in the Sun Belt Conference. They turned it over 5 times, but this loss was the outlier for this Troy team. I think they'll come back here for a blow out win vs. an extremely overmatched Texas State team. Troy is the team that knocked off Appalachian State- holding them to 334 yards, gave Clemson a dogfight for their entire game and it was no fluke, and was 8-1 going into last week's game for a number of reasons.

Brandon Silvers, a true dual threat, is a gamer that plays behind a veteran OL, and is complimented by a great run game and some WRs that can stretch the field. Troy also plays defense well, holding opponent passers to 52% completion rate, and 11th nationwide in run defense. Texas State is really bad as evidenced by giving up 43 unanswered points to NMSU last week. Texas State has a new coach this year who lost many players in the offseason for medical reasons, transfers, indefinite suspensions and de-committed recruits. This team is held together by duct tape and glue, and they can't even muster the little bit of offense that they did earlier in the year. Troy will be able to run the easily on a young, small DL. Texas St. is dead last in defensive efficiency, and they're not that close to the teams right above them. I think Troy's loss will make them play better here(good teams often do this), and on the road they'll pull together, and make this blowout type win.

 

[ofred]

1* Teaser:

LSU/ A&M- under 51 Miami OH -1.5 (-105) Degenerate teaser for all of us who have leans during the week, but can't pull the trigger on any one game, and hate losing more $ on stinking MAC games. LSU under looks good even at 45, and still might play it. Their D should totally stuff A&M(even UTSA defended the Aggies offense pretty well), but look for the Aggies to play very tough D themselves knowing that's their only chance for a win here. Neither has much of a downfield passing attack. As for Miami, they are at home, on a winning streak, and going for a very unexpected bowl bid. They have a solid D, and a resurgent offense. Ball State playing out the string, but does have enough offense to make it interesting.

 

[ofred]

3* Boise/ Air Force- over 64 This Boise defense lost 4-5 guys to the NFL in the draft and in UFAs. They have been fairly good statistically this year, but not up to their usual standards. They don't ever seem to have two outstanding halves defensively. And this week they are missing three key players on their D- UT Gabe Perez, and LBs Martanaro and Vallejo. All three were 1st or 2nd team pre-season All Mt. West defensive players. And they are crucial to the interior of this year's Boise's interior and run stopping D. This makes the Air Force run game that much more dangerous, and in recent weeks it has been prolific, averaging 38 points a game the last 4 weeks. QB Arion Worthman, has been an even better runner than Romine, and passes a bit better too. Last year, Air Force opened up the playbook for their Boise game, and ended up winning 37-30, with over 600 yards of offense. This year, they are at home, and could do the same.

On the other hand, Boise's passing game has been clicking this year, and have multiple very good receiving options for QB Rypien. I don't think the Air Force secondary can handle it. Rypien has been less turnover prone, more accurate and avoids sacks better this year(he's maturing as a QB). Boise also has a very good OL, and running attack with Jeremy McNichols. Air Force's pass D is 91st and an even worse 114th in yds. per attempt in pass defense. This game I think stays completive throughout the 4th quarter, meaning there won't be any time-burning to use clock. That isn't how either of these teams play anyways. Neither gets conservative even with a big lead. Good weather expected.

 

[KAPTHAT]

gl o fred

 

[ofred]

GL to you Kap.

2* LSU/ Texas A&M- under 48.5 This line went up on the report that Trevor Knight would play even with an injured throwing shoulder. QB Hubenak looks like he's out due to his shoulder too. This play says Knight doesn't last the game. LSU is one of the best at stopping the run, and A&M is going to have to pass. Since Knight was originally going to be out until the bowl game, I'm assuming this is a stretch having him come back a month and a half early. LSU will hit Knight enough and drive him into the turf enough to eventually send him to the sidelines. A&M will have to have one of their better defensive games here to win this game, and they know it. They are capable of it, and will have the very loud home crowd behind them. LSU's QB Danny Etling has decent stats, but looking deeper will show that he is much less effective vs. good defensive competition. Etling is a pocket passer, and I think we'll see a run heavy LSU and A&M here to keep the pressure off of the QBs standing in the pocket long, or running the ball. I expect Knight will run very little with his shoulder in bad shape. Look for an inspired effort here by A&M. Fournette doubtful, and Guice, like Etling, has been less effective vs. good Ds.

 

[ofred]

4* Navy/ SMU- over 68 Make it four 4*s. SMU will be highly motivated here as they are trying to get to 6-6 and get a bowl spot. SMU has had some remarkably competitive games, scoring 38 on Houston, and playing Tulsa and USF very close. But, SMU hasn't played the Navy triple option yet this year, and it's difficult to prepare for it in a normal week. SMU gave up 55 last year to Navy, and recently the Navy option is almost unstoppable. QB Will Worth has also been a decent passer at 61%(when was the last time Navy had a 60%+ passer?). It's not that they pass much, but because it has been effective, it keeps the opponent's secondary from creeping up. Navy has been scoring at about 45 points per game since their loss to Air Force earlier in the year.

Navy's big weakness is in pass defense, although their run defense is not all that good either. Their defense lost a number of key contributors to graduation, have a couple of injuries, and they will likely struggle here with the WRs of SMU. SMU's QB Ben Hicks has looked good the last 6 games, giving up only 4 interceptions. Picks were a big problem before that, but he has looked more poised recently, and has WR Courtland Sutton, who looks like one of the most underrated WRs in the country. His other 2 WRs also have playmaking ability. Navy will also have to deal with SMU's running game led by Braeden West, who has 988 yards and had a 6.4 ypc vs. Houston and is complimented by Freshman Ke'Mon Freeman, who has come on in recent weeks. Coach Chad Morris has done a great job rebuilding this team, and especially the offense. This could be his last game with SMU as he is being considered at more prominent programs like Baylor and Texas. Navy also needs this win to secure home field advantage for the AAC conference championship, a huge advantage considering how vocal the middies home crowd is. I just can't see a defensive type game here.

 

[ofred]

Man, did I miss the LSU game… 93 points!

 

[ofred]

1* TCU +3 Texas will NOT get over their Kansas loss this soon. Pall of death hangs over them while TCU has at least a steady hand in HC Patterson. Texas also played fairly poorly vs. WVU and Texas Tech in the previous weeks, and I think the pressure is probably too great on freshman Shane Buechele. He is showing cracks in the foundation.

1* Toledo +7.5 Toledo lets the weaker teams hang around, but always rises to the level of the better talented teams. Got to take the points in a game Toledo has a decent chance of winning. WMU has the best QB-WR duo in Terrell and Corey Davis, but Toledo has a multitude of offensive talent for QB Woodside. Like the RLM here.

1* Iowa -2.5 Nebraska's signature win is….beating Indiana by 5. I don't like their QB situation tomorrow. Armstrong with the injured hamstring(and he sprints and jukes as part of his game which will re-injure a hammy) and the other QB with his wrist in a cast. Iowa can play the better defense, and I think guts this one out at home. I have to respect any team that can beat Michigan.

 

[tmader7]

Man, did I miss the LSU game… 93 points!

Welcome to my world, lol. Not much D in that one. Ya might want to check that Zona State game Fred, some pretty significant RLM. GL

~T~

 

[XSPower]

Good luck today...

 

[ofred]

Bet off TCU +3- No play there

1* NC State +10 Got a sense that NC State will keep UNC in check with their defense. And the NC State offense is good enough to keep pace. Rivalry game that that the Wolfpack are good enough to win

1* Washington -6.5 Like HC Petersen in these type of games, games where he knows he'll have to open up the offense to win. Washington also has the DBs to one on one with Wazzu WRs, and keep the passes short. The Huskies also have the advantage in the running game even though Wazzu has a decent one themselves.

 

[ofred]

Welcome to my world, lol. Not much D in that one. Ya might want to check that Zona State game Fred, some pretty significant RLM. GL

~T~

Back at 2 in many shops, so 3…2- not much difference in a college game.

 

[mudman]

BOL on your plays!

 

[Ilovetobet]

i really like ASU just seen the line moved down to 1.5

 

[sharky99]

why off TCU +3-3.5 .... I like TCU wondering what got you off the game