Week 12 NFL 11/25-11/28

[BlackampGold]

All Plays One Unit

Preseason Straight Plays: 16-9-0 64.00% +6.47U
Regular Season Straight Plays: 44-38 53.66% +3.49U
Total Straight Plays: 60-47 56.07% +9.96U

Half-time Plays: 0-4 0.00% -4.14U
Money Line Underdogs: 0-1 0.00% -1.00U
Teasers: 3-4 42.86% -1.40U
Parlays: 0-1 0.00% -1.00U

Total = +2.42U




7 point tease Washington +17.5 & UNDER 43 -120

Bill Cowher just announced that Plexico Burress is out for this Sunday's game and judging by what I saw versus Cincinnati, this is significant. Burress stretches the field and also has been Ben's favorite target when he is scrambling from pressure. The Bengals had 7 sacks, most of them coming after Burress left the game. Couple this with the Steelers facing a defense that can stop the run and I really think the Steelers have a tough game here. Washington hasn't been able to score all year and I do not see that changing on the road against the #1 defense in the NFL. The seven point tease presents such a nice cushion both ways so I decided that way rather than UNDER 36 or Washington +10.5 although playing these individually are solid plays as well in my opinion.

 

[jaypaw]

Pitt beat Philly 27-3.

Philly beat Washington 28-6.

The Washington cusion might not be enough.

Just a thought.


GL

 

[BlackampGold]

Jaypaw - I have watched every Steeler game this season and the offense is very different without Burress. Hines Ward said he was triple teamed on a couple occasions last week after Plex left the game. Randle El will not strike fear into the WASH secondary and the running game will have a rougher go at it as well. The Steelers could exploit the run defense of New England & Philly in previous games which opened up the pass game. With WASH holding their own in the run game and without Plex out, the Steelers offense may struggle as it did in Cincy. That said, the Steelers could crush them like they have done to just about everybody else (and that wouldn't be so bad either) which means I totally out-"thunk" myself.

 

[BlackampGold]

HAPPY THANKSGIVING!


6 point TEASE IND/DET Under 59.5 & CHI/DAL Under 42 +100

 

[thecruncher]

I'm with you, Black&Gold. I don't trust Wash. enough to make them a top play, but am still teasing them at +17. I don't like teasing totals, so just taking the under 36.

 

[BlackampGold]

Thanks Cruncher, hope we get it as long as the Steelers win!

Here are two more for Sunday on a tough card this week:



San Diego/Kansas City UNDER 52 -112

New Orleans/Atlanta UNDER 46.5 -105

 

[thecruncher]

Hey, B&G, what are your thoughts on these games going under? For me, in spite of the higher than average number, I like them over. My concerns on the over -- will the Saints provide 17+ points to put this one over against a decent Falcons D.? Used to playing in a dome, with their team speed, I think they can make enough big plays -- and that goes for both teams -- to put this one over. I think there will be a fair amount of big plays in the KC/SD game as well. With the game figuring to be close, both teams will be able to run their normal offenses, which work better than when defenses are stacking up against the run vs. the team way ahead, and stacking up vs. the pass vs. the team that is way behind -- like the Colts/Bears game. Had that game been closer it would have easily gone over. I don't love either Over here, but I've got them posted as 2ndary Plays.

 

[BlackampGold]

Crunch -

SD is a much better offensive team at home. SD has the #1 run defense and KC will not be as effective in the passing game because of it. Both teams will stay dedicated to the run game which chews clock. I have both teams with a maximum output of 24 points in this game. If they both hit that mark, a field goal in OT to make it 27-24 still cashes the ticket.


"My concerns on the over -- will the Saints provide 17+ points to put this one over against a decent Falcons D.?" - I don't think so. I think New Orleans will be held to one TD so 10-13 seems right. New Orleans has allowed just 3 rushing TD's last 5 so Atlanta may get 1 in the running game and Vick usually maxes out at 2 passing TDs. I figure Atlanta to get about 24 offensive points maximum. A defensive or special teams TD still keeps it under.



My last play until Sunday Night -



Philadelphia/NY Giants UNDER 37.5 -111



GOOD LUCK EVERYONE!!

 

[thecruncher]

Hmm...I'll offer some counters then, lol. KC has the worst pass defense in the league. KC will not stay committed to the run if it's not productive. SD running the ball is not a bad thing for the Over, necessarily. L. Thomas can bust some BIG runs. I Don't love the over -- small play.

Saints average 20 a game, Falcons give up 20 a game, so it seems pretty optimistic to limit the Saints to 10 points in this one. Saints have not given up less than 20 points once this season, so saying Atl. will get only 13 is also optimistic.

The NYG weather is still 30% rain with winds less than 20, so now we're also butting heads on my favorite Over of the week, lol. BOL in our heads-up match, B&G!

 

[BlackampGold]

Crunch - You misunderstood me in the New Orleans game - I was predicting 24 points for Atlanta and 10-13 for the Saints. Anyway, good discussion and hopefully our plays will match in the future.

 

[BlackampGold]

3-1 on the day and 4-1 on the week, teasers working good so...



6 1/2 point TEASE Oakland +18.5 & OVER 35.5 -110

 

[sportsbet]

Good luck B&G!

sb

 

[BlackampGold]

Thanks SB - Looks like the Iggles have rebounded quite nicely from their unpleasant visit to the BURGH. 10-1. It is a PA (& NE) thing!

 

[thecruncher]

Good job, B&G. As you know, my 2 losses were very, very close, lol. 1 point in the Atl., and 4.5 in the Philly. Could have gone either way, so good on ya. I hope we end up on the same side in the future as well.

 

[BlackampGold]

St. Louis/GB UNDER 51 -110