Week 12 and more

[russ1945]

TCU is now 6-0 ATS at home.

Ark State, Duke, Georgia So and UTEP are all 4-0 ATS at home.

Old Dominion is now 0-5 ATS at home.

BYU and SMU are both 0-4 ATS at home.

La Tech is now 6-0 ATS away. Cal, Nevada, Purdue, Texas State and Utah are all 4-0 ATS away. W. Michigan is 5-1 in away games.

Army, North Texas, Stanford and Toledo are all 0-4 ATS in away games.

Georgia, Ohio St and Tulsa are all 5-0 ATS OVER in home games.

FAU, Florida, and Maryland are all 4-0 ATS OVER in home games.

U Mass and Old Dominion are both 5-0 UNDER in away games.

Florida St and Oklahoma are both 4-0 Over in away games.

San Diego St is 5-0 UNDER in away games.

E Carolina, Ole Miss, and Utah are all 4-0 UNDER in away games.

TCU and W Mich lead the nation both are 8-1 ATS. AT 8-2 ATs are Georgia So and La Tech. At 7-2 ATS are Arkansas, Duke, U Mass, Ohio St, Rice, and UTEP.

Bringing up the rear at 2-8 ATS is Old Dominion. At 2-7 ATS are Akron, U Conn, Florida St, Oregon St, S. Carolina.

 

[Chackiee]

Nice Work, I Believe The Duke Streak Comes To An End This Week

 

[russ1945]

8 teams have fallen from the AP preseason top 25: Oklahoma, S Carolina, Stanford, USC, Texas A&M, N Carolina, Missouri and Washington. Combined those teams are 35-39 ATS (48%).

The 8 teams who have replaced them are Miss St, TCU, Arizona, Duke, Marshall, Colorado St, Georgia Tech and Utah. Combined those teams are 49-24-1 ATS (68%). If you throw out Arizona who is 3-6 ATS the other 7 teams combined are 46-18 (72%).

 

[russ1945]

Nice Work, I Believe The Duke Streak Comes To An End This Week

Could be but their last 3 games are all home games. LY they beat VT 13-10 at VT though. Steele had Duke pegged 5th in the Coastal division lol.

 

[Chackiee]

If They Win This 1, Most Likely Will Finish 11-1, Amazing

 

[russ1945]

If They Win This 1, Most Likely Will Finish 11-1, Amazing

They could out do their BB team lol.

 

[CoachCB]

I learned 2 things (which I already knew...but it was confirmed on Saturday):

The Big 10 and ACC are HORRIBLE!

If a B10 team gets into the 4-team it will be the biggest farce in the history of college football!

 

[russ1945]

Looks like weather could be a factor on week 12.

 

[russ1945]

Looking back at the AP preseason top 25 there are a few teams who are still struggling to make it to a bowl:

Stanford is 5-4 which includes a win over U.C. Davis. They still have to face #17 Utah, Cal, and #18 UCLA.

S. Carolina is 4-5 including a win over Furman and still have to face Florida, S. Ala, and #21 Clemson.

N. Carolina is 4-5 and still has to face Pitt, #22 Duke, and N. Carolina St.

Going from the preseason top 25 to struggling to make it to a bowl game is quite a drop.

 

[russ1945]

GOY lines have been updated at LVH

I checked it out and came back on just a few minutes later. Here were some games that changed that quickly.

W Vir came out at -2.5 over Kansas St and dropped to even, LSU came out -1over T A&M and dropped to even, TCU came out -10 over Texas and went to -12, Arkansas came out -1 over Mizzou and went to even, Ariz and Ariz St came out at even and went to Arizona -2, and Baylor came out -8.5 over Kansas St and went to -6.5

They now have Ole Miss -3 over Miss St

 

[Knightrofins]

8 teams have fallen from the AP preseason top 25: Oklahoma, S Carolina, Stanford, USC, Texas A&M, N Carolina, Missouri and Washington. Combined those teams are 35-39 ATS (48%).

The 8 teams who have replaced them are Miss St, TCU, Arizona, Duke, Marshall, Colorado St, Georgia Tech and Utah. Combined those teams are 49-24-1 ATS (68%). If you throw out Arizona who is 3-6 ATS the other 7 teams combined are 46-18 (72%).

I wonder if there is a way to get ATS records of teams that were not in preseason 25 and what their ATS records are once they've reached the top 25? Just wondering if those teams arent good "value" teams once they reach the top 25?

 

[russ1945]

I wonder if there is a way to get ATS records of teams that were not in preseason 25 and what their ATS records are once they've reached the top 25? Just wondering if those teams arent good "value" teams once they reach the top 25?

That is where off season preparation comes in, guessing which ones will fall and which ones will rise. You have to anticipate to get the full "value". Betting on the teams who rise into the final top 25 is the most valuable. I started following Marshall from the get go and they are 6-2-1 ATS and Colorado St after week one (they are 7-3 ATS). If you started off with TCU you would be 8-1 ATS. A lot of people got down on Ohio St after their out right loss to Virginia Tech in week two, they are 7-2 ATS for the season. Ohio St is a team that fell from the top 25 and made it back.

 

[russ1945]

Last year Auburn and Georgia combined for 81 points and 1098 total yards.

Marshall – this should be a circle game for them as they lost to Rice last year 24-41on the road.

Texas – another revenger as the Longhorns lost to Okla St LY by the score of 13-38. They also can become bowl eligible with a win. If they lose to Okla St then they have to beat TCU in their final game to get to a bowl. Plenty of incentives and coming off big win over WV to boot.

Last week WF had 7 yards rushing against Clemson.

Kansas St had 34 yards rushing against TCU last week.

Last week Washington St and Oregon ST combined for 72 yds rushing.

Also LW Boise St and New Mexico combined for 1285 total yards.

In a non-FBS game S.E. Louisiana beat Houston Baptist 76-7. S.E. La had 806 total yards to Hou Bapt’s 80 total yds. Wow.

 

[Knightrofins]

That is where off season preparation comes in, guessing which ones will fall and which ones will rise. You have to anticipate to get the full "value". Betting on the teams who rise into the final top 25 is the most valuable. I started following Marshall from the get go and they are 6-2-1 ATS and Colorado St after week one (they are 7-3 ATS). If you started off with TCU you would be 8-1 ATS. A lot of people got down on Ohio St after their out right loss to Virginia Tech in week two, they are 7-2 ATS for the season. Ohio St is a team that fell from the top 25 and made it back.

So once those teams get into the top 25, is the value on those teams pretty much gone?

So in the preseason, we should look for those teams in a non power 5 conference who we think are going to be good and ride them?

Thanks for all the data that you contribute!!

 

[russ1945]

So once those teams get into the top 25, is the value on those teams pretty much gone?

So in the preseason, we should look for those teams in a non power 5 conference who we think are going to be good and ride them?

Thanks for all the data that you contribute!!

I will go over all that in the next off season. I learn something from all this every season. Actually teams from power 5 conferences can do it also. Look at Auburn last year and Miss St this year. I first discovered that betting against the teams that fall and betting on the ones who rise are money makers. To reap the full benefits you have to anticipate and adjust. Even if you get on board around week 3 you can still do ok.

If a team reaches the top 25 you should continue to follow them. No one is holding a gun to your head though, this is not to be a substitute for solid handicapping on a game to game matchup basis. I am not a big trends guy but this is the only solid trend that I have stumbled onto through my spread sheets etc. I would like to get more input from others during the off season on my thread. Stanford falling for instance surprised a lot of people. Every season is a fresh start and you cannot live on your laurels. Teams with exceptional QB's and aggressive HC's and good OC's are worth checking out. That is why I got on Marshall early. Teams like FIU who are 7-3 ATS right now do not fall in this category of course.

 

[tmader7]

Remember where I live now.....I'll have something to report in the next day or two on the Dookies.

~T~

 

[russ1945]

Remember where I live now.....I'll have something to report in the next day or two on the Dookies.

~T~

Open ears here

 

[GoSooners]

I think they are pushing the envelope with this Va Tech/Duke line..

 

[tmader7]

Open ears here

Nothing in the Observer today, they'll have something on them tomorrow, usually Wednesday for ACC report, although that BS about Winston's point shaving finally made the paper today. How would you like to be that kid's coach, LOL.

~T~

 

[packer2012]

I feel "that kid's coach" is a huge part of his problem. Coach should have hammered and benched his ass long before now.

Obviously the kid thinks he is "entitled" and is far less than intelligent, but nobody is teaching him anything.