Week 11

[OverThinker]

3-2 +$80 my 1st week posting. Overall was ok week, steelers ml really put a dent in profits. Other loss was the Mia/sd under that had 17 points at half, ugh. Felt like it was a solid well played card and wouldn't have changed a play. Hopefully this week we can get a few breaks!!


Ravens+7 ev (2x)..second week in a row I'm stepping in front of the dal money train after not being against them all season (I'm stubborn like that!). Don't get me wrong I love this dal team, I'm a huge fan of a physical rushing attack and dak a wonderful complement to that. This week a little different challenge as boys face a tough physical defense. This game much more similar to when philly came to town and lost a ot thriller. I don't believe any team can completely shut down this dal rushing attack without risking dez having a monster game. Balty does have the ability to limit zeke without stacking the box, he might get around 100 yrds but it will take 25 carries to get there. Harbaugh a great coach who's team has a excellent record off a bye or extra rest like this week with the mini bye. Dal off a emotional win and have division rival skins on deck in 4 days. This game is ripe for a upset and we catching 7 in a game I see boys scoring 23-24 with absolute high of 27. I don't believe dal d can hold Ravens under 20. I'll happily take the points.

Bears+7.5 (2x).. bears back in a role they perform much better in. Fox a really good coach who's teams play tough as a dog. Perfect setup as nyg one of those teams that tend to play down to competition in these spots. Fox wants to ugly the game up and gmen will allow it. Potential high winds and dropping total ensure this doesn't turn into cutler garbage ass vs Eli. Bears come in with the far better rushing attack. Ugly ugly gm with turnovers and fgs, a real stinker to watch but a great game to take the hapless bears coming off a pathetic beat down as favorites. They hang throughout and lose close.

Phins-2 (1x).. the oline injuries for Mia have reduced this to a 1u bet. I expect the defense to chew up Goff to the point i don't think the offense has to do much.

Stll have several more to come in what shaping up to be a card I like a great deal.

 

[OverThinker]

Colts-2.5 -105 (1.5x).. can't ignore the history here, Indy owns this matchup having won like 10 straight. Sure titans rapidly improving but just 3 weeks ago luck shredded this squad without his full compliment of weapons, now Indy as healthy as they been all season and basically In a must win. Marriota been great but he still makes costly mistakes that lead to scores, id expect the same if he forced to go toe to toe with luck..

 

[OverThinker]

Philly+7 -120 (2x).. I'm not real high on philly but feel like it pretty easy to cap them. This tough venue for a rookie qb and suspect offense but the key here eagles dline vs sea terrible oline. I think sea offense is finally rounding into the team they wanted to become w Wilson running the show. I expect them to have many more great performances down the stretch but not this week. phi front will be a nightmare for this suspect oline, expect a defensive battle here. Phi has shown willingness to dink and dunk all day, they will limit mistakes and win the field possession battle with their special teams and d. Points gonna be at a premium and while I don't think this line off I just feel the eagles match up really well here..

 

[OverThinker]

Jags/lions under 23.5 1st half -105 (1.5x)..jags offense been so ugly early in games, the defense rounding into form. Don't think we get over the game total but can't risk jags garbage time offense pushing it over. Tend to think it close throughout but we shall see..

 

[DertyD]

Looking good!

Very nice write ups! Best of luck!

DD

 

[XSPower]

Good luck today.....

 

[OverThinker]

Looking good!

Very nice write ups! Best of luck!

DD

Thanks for the kind words, honestly I had much better write ups but I'm a computer illiterate and lost the whole damn thing before I posted and couldnt get back. Tried best I could to highlight key points while shortening up on my phone, they didn't turn out as good and unfortunately had to leave out the numbers I felt were relevant as I was working off memory and didn't want to get them wrong.

 

[tulah]

Great stuff bro :toast:
let make some money :chest:

 

[TomandJerry]

best of luck this wek with your many action .................. TJ

 

[OverThinker]

Feel like I did pretty good where I got on on the numbers. Doesn't mean much but still feels much better than having them all move against ya. Lol.

Adding 1 more

Minny-2 (1x).. not much difference in these teams really, neither oline any good, Bradford back to his old self hearing footsteps even when there isn't pressure, palmer has fallen off a cliff to extent I actually think minny has the better qb here. Cards weapons around the qb better but I give minny d a slight edge plus another bump being at home. Hard to trust either team so only 1u but feel like I'd be kicking myself if I didn't play it..


APPRECIATE THE KIND WORDS, GL EVERYONE!!

 

[OverThinker]

Fish/lambs over 38.5 (1x).. I know this ain't gonna be pretty, I know lambs like nothing more than treating their fans to a 9-6 shitfest. This is mostly gut here, I just have the feeling we are gonna get points out of defense and potentially special teams in this one. At that point one these qbs will be forced to chuck it around to erase the turnovers. When that happens I expect some guys to get behind these secondaries. Couple big defensive plays, a special team score, few bombs and presto both teams somehow manage 20 points and over cashes in a game under makes far more sense.

still one more play on the Sunday night game to come. Been awhile since I've had a Card with so many plays. Hopefully it works out ok.

 

[OverThinker]

4-1 +6u for the early slate. 2 weeks in a row dal has gotten me. They scored about as projected, didn't think dal d would hold Balt under 20, flacco is so garbage and I really don't understand why harbaugh giving Dixon so few touches? He looks so good with the limited work he gets, far better than west. Don't understand these coaches thought processes at times. Don't want to sound like sore loser but the officials were terrible in this game and really did a number on Ravens chances..happy w the results otherwise hopefully we can continue cashing tickets throughout rest of day!!

 

[OverThinker]

Well the afternoon went to shit. On to night cap..

gb/skins ov 48 (2.5x)..getting a really good number here, I'm assuming this getting bet down cause the weather that has affected several games today with lower scores than projected. Every report im seeing isn't all that bad in the capitol. Some wins but nothing strong enough to worry me.

Skins have one of the best offenses in the league, cousins surrounded by weapons and love the way gruden calls plays. The only problem is they do not convert when they get into the red zone only punching in 38% of their chances, doesn't make a whole lot of sense with those 2 beast tight ends they got! Makes even less sense when you consider they converted close to 60% last season which has me optimistic they can get this sorted out. Whether skins fix it going forward I dunno but tonight they outta have a easier go of it against a gb d who allowing 60% success on the season and a ridiculous 75% the last 3 where they been facing high caliber offenses. I really don't think clay Mathews returning magically fixes this against all these weapons. Don't think skins have a problem scoring 27 to 30 tonight..

packers offense coming around as Rodgers starting to enjoy a full compliment of weapons. Cobb, Jordy, and Adams gonna be more than skins secondary can deal with. Starks and Montgomery out of the backfield a real problem for a skins d that has had their fair of trouble with pass catching rb's. This a desperate squad who should be looking to light up the scoreboard early to try and help the defense out by getting skins away from the run game.. again don't see much likelihood pack don't score 24+. Think we looking at a 30-27 type score but all we need is both teams to hit 24 which should be easily attainable..

 

[OverThinker]

6-3 +420 on the day.

9-5 +500 last 2 weeks posting here..

 

[OverThinker]

Nothing for me Monday night. I lean Oakland, feel like this could be a grade A ass whipping but couple question marks enough for me to pass. I don't like the neutral site venue when having to lay what a big number for me (I'll play favs but rare I'm willing to lay a td). My other concern is oak coming off their bye, normally I think this a advantage for teams but not sure that the case when we talking about a young team who was hot. Def think there a chance they lose a little of that momentum while they sat around being told how good they are. I think they will shake it off but kinda expect them to be sluggish early..

looking ahead I really like the week 12 card and it shaping up as another week I could have a good amount of plays. Love this time of year, think I have a pretty good read on a lot of teams and anticipate a good run down the home stretch and into the playoffs. Hope ya'll enjoy it with me!!

 

[BetMONSTERS]

Nothing for me Monday night. I lean Oakland, feel like this could be a grade A ass whipping but couple question marks enough for me to pass. I don't like the neutral site venue when having to lay what a big number for me (I'll play favs but rare I'm willing to lay a td). My other concern is oak coming off their bye, normally I think this a advantage for teams but not sure that the case when we talking about a young team who was hot. Def think there a chance they lose a little of that momentum while they sat around being told how good they are. I think they will shake it off but kinda expect them to be sluggish early..

looking ahead I really like the week 12 card and it shaping up as another week I could have a good amount of plays. Love this time of year, think I have a pretty good read on a lot of teams and anticipate a good run down the home stretch and into the playoffs. Hope ya'll enjoy it with me!!

Great job this week and...um... would you try not to over think these things so much!! GO RAIDERS!