Vikings @ Bucs
Believe it or not, this was one of the games that jumped out at me. The Vikings pretty much shut down the packers offense, but gave up a defensive touchdown, and a special teams touchdown... Points are points, but those are RARE points that you shouldn't count on. Think of them as a bonus last week.
Their last totals were 28-27, 21-28, 41-48, before that 12-10 game vs the Lions.
Tampa was actually in their 30-27 come back before 9-13, 20-10, 27-3, 13-16 games. I expect this game to be more along those lines.
Both defenses are stingy, and neither offense scares me. Peterson running the ball eats clock, and short west coast offense passes from Tampa also eat the clock.
The game will also be on grass ( where Tampa gives up 10.8 per game) and 3.4 per run.
If this game was played 100 times, the average score is probably something like 17-14. Maybe a team scores 20-21, but I don't think both would, that would be a less likely scenerio. I think the fact that you do have two defensive teams together makes the way they approach the game even more conservative. If a team has 3rd and 5 at the 30 yardline, they will just run a draw and play for that FG rather than trying to pick up that first down ( and score a TD). When coaches know points are at a premium, they are more likely to play conservative and take 3 pointers instead of really fighting hard for 7 poinit touchdowns.
The Pros
- Tampa has a top 5 defense ( probably top 3?)
- Minnesota has a very strong defense top 10 at the least
- Tampa's offense is ok, nothing scary
- Minny's offense can run very well ( clock eater), but is weak passing
- The game is on a grass field ( slow surface)
- 2 defensive opponents playing together usually creates a conservative game plan synergy. Coaches are more than happy to put 3's on the score board.
The Cons
- The game is in Florida, so the weather should be decent
- Both teams have a chance at scoring a defensive touchdown
- Never underestimate Adrian Peterson
Is there anybody that likes the Over?
Believe it or not, this was one of the games that jumped out at me. The Vikings pretty much shut down the packers offense, but gave up a defensive touchdown, and a special teams touchdown... Points are points, but those are RARE points that you shouldn't count on. Think of them as a bonus last week.
Their last totals were 28-27, 21-28, 41-48, before that 12-10 game vs the Lions.
Tampa was actually in their 30-27 come back before 9-13, 20-10, 27-3, 13-16 games. I expect this game to be more along those lines.
Both defenses are stingy, and neither offense scares me. Peterson running the ball eats clock, and short west coast offense passes from Tampa also eat the clock.
The game will also be on grass ( where Tampa gives up 10.8 per game) and 3.4 per run.
If this game was played 100 times, the average score is probably something like 17-14. Maybe a team scores 20-21, but I don't think both would, that would be a less likely scenerio. I think the fact that you do have two defensive teams together makes the way they approach the game even more conservative. If a team has 3rd and 5 at the 30 yardline, they will just run a draw and play for that FG rather than trying to pick up that first down ( and score a TD). When coaches know points are at a premium, they are more likely to play conservative and take 3 pointers instead of really fighting hard for 7 poinit touchdowns.
The Pros
- Tampa has a top 5 defense ( probably top 3?)
- Minnesota has a very strong defense top 10 at the least
- Tampa's offense is ok, nothing scary
- Minny's offense can run very well ( clock eater), but is weak passing
- The game is on a grass field ( slow surface)
- 2 defensive opponents playing together usually creates a conservative game plan synergy. Coaches are more than happy to put 3's on the score board.
The Cons
- The game is in Florida, so the weather should be decent
- Both teams have a chance at scoring a defensive touchdown
- Never underestimate Adrian Peterson
Is there anybody that likes the Over?
