Week 11: Start with Thursday

[ofred]

Va. Tech +3.5 (-115) These two play their games close, with VT usually winning. VT has especially been successful in weeknight games, although I'm not sure that matters much for Thursday.

I like VT partly because this is an emotional game for the players based on Frank Beamer's retiring. VT is coming off a bye as is Georgian Tech. Something about that coupled with Beamer's retirement makes me think this is a huge game for Virginia Tech. Both teams are having down years, hoping for bowl eligibility. But GT's coach, Paul Johnson, has been talking about playing young players to see who might be worthy of starter status for next year. Actually, with all of GT's injuries and players that have left the team (they lost a starting WR this week- weird timing?), they have already been playing a lot of youth. I think VT plays for now, and gets a GT team that is lesser than what they've faced in the past.

VT's players and coaches certainly have experience vs. GT's option offense…which is not quite as productive as in past years. Their passing game is worse than it's usual mediocrity, with Justin Thomas regressing in the past 4-5 games down to the low 40s PCT. GT has also struggled stopping the run, almost giving up 5 yards/ rush. GT has lacked TOs on defense, has often poor field position, and has at times, been plagued by penalties. VT has their own issues, but I think we'll see a high effort VT team Thursday, and with 3.5 points in these always close games, I'm on it.

 

[sendacash]

While Va Tech has screwed me countless times in the past, I think they want to send Beamer out a bowling and need this game pluse one of either North Carolina or Virginia with a definite lean to the latter to get it done. Not sure what else G Tech has to play for and they still have games against Miami and rival Georgia to end the season. That 3.5 is just about a goner.

 

[fballgenius]

Like it fred. Michael Brewer back and looking good. GT just not happening this season.

 

[ofred]

Line at +3 now. GT starting a ton of freshmen and RS freshmen. Playing for next year?

 

[indiana]

Fred..........good luck tonight and this week end...........indy

 

[cashflow50]

nice call on VT fred. Always a good read. You got any plays for saturday that you might post today? Want to read your insights on games you have planned for. thanks

 

[ofred]

nice call on VT fred. Always a good read. You got any plays for saturday that you might post today? Want to read your insights on games you have planned for. thanks

Thanks Cash. VT slept through the 1Q, but dominated thereafter.

CAL -13 (1H) Cal will dominate at least one half here. Oregon State has not had one game this year, not even vs. Weber and San Jose, where they haven't looked horrendous for at least one half. This team has been criticized all year by Coach Gary Andersen for not being tough enough, and yet they haven't responded at all. They have a VERY young team that looks like they aren't even physically developed (like true freshman often look) enough for this level of football. Their best 2 players, WRs Bolden and Villamin, don't have a QB that can get them the ball. In fact, the QB difference between Goff and the OSU guys couldn't be more extreme. The OSU run game is missing both Seth Collins, their running QB, and Ryan Nall, their most physical back. OSU dismissed a WR this week that seems to confirm that there is dissension or bad attitudes in the locker room.

I think this is a good spot for Cal too. They are coming off 4 straight tough PAC 12 opponents, 3 on the road, and a game with Utah they should have won. This team is going to be fired up for a win, and won't let up vs. a much weaker opponent. OSU might be in the PAC 12, but when you watch them play, they really look like a mediocre MT. West team. What would Cal do, coming off 4 losses, with bowl eligibility in the balance, at home, with really a strong O, DO to a team like San Jose St. right now? This Cal team is better than their record, and I think they come out strong. The Beavers are missing 2 starting DBs, and I think Cal can run and and pass at will vs. this defense. Especially with a sense of urgency. Cal is healthy for this game.

Final note: Backup Beav QB Marcus Mcaryion has completely lost confidence, and is only going in if freshman Nick Mitchell gets injured. Mitchell is at 47%, with 1 TD and 4 picks, 9 sacks- and in only 3 starts. Now that there is film on him, I'd be surprised if Cal didn't cook up some challenging looks for him. Like I said, Cal will bring it for 60 minutes- that's how bad they need a big win. A confidence building win. ​I will be big on the 2H play for Cal if the 1h doesn't pan out.

 

[ofred]

Not my thing usually, but like this quite a lot:

7.5 pt. Teaser:
Louisville -6.5
Arkansas +15
West Va. -1.5 (Odds: 1/ 1.35) Arkansas can win this game with LSU, and with LSU's lame offense, and off the Ala. game, +15 looks juicy. Louisville playing for a bowl game, at home, great D, could very well crush Virginia. West Va. is not as bad as they have looked. Brutal schedule, playing Big 12 titans, but now at home vs. a passing-challenged Texas team traveling east, playing a morning game. WVU could win this big. I'll also have small plays on these 3 teams at their regular spreads.

 

[ofred]

Oregon/ Stanford- over 69. Feel like I have a bead on this Oregon team. Have played against them, with them, and overall, have made money. This Duck team, even though they have some recent wins, is a defensive disaster and an offensive juggernaut. In the past, Oregon would be cruising along only to suffer an upset at Stanford's hands, dropping the Ducks from a top 5 team to somewhere lower. This game I can see pretty much the same scenario as Stanford both runs and passes with ease down the field. Stanford would be crazy not to test this Oregon pass defense. It tackles poorly and gives up way too much separation on pass patterns.

On the other hand, the Stanford pass defense isn't all that good this year. And Vernon Adams and Co. are "on" right now. The Ducks have a such a strong running game, and along with Adams' ability to move the pocket and throw on the run, I can't see this fast paced offense being held up. The Ducks have so many offensive weapons right now and know they can only win this in a shoot-out type game. The over looks promising because Oregon runs plays so quickly, and with Stanford passing more (I think), we'll see more clock stoppage, scoring with few FGs….and even though Stanford has plodded down the field running in the past, these 2 teams have weaker defenses than in the past, and thus a more wide open game. Weather should be fine.

 

[ofred]

Last week I posted a theory on late season games, and why they are more likely to go over than under. You can read it if you want under Week 10. Last week I think it went 2-2. Here's two more... although I'm looking for more.

Cinn. / Tulsa- over 76.5 High number, yes, but these two teams are as up tempo as you can get. Tulsa is tackling deficient and is especially horrible vs. the run game. They almost seem to have no intention of stopping the opponent's offense, but just try to outscore them. They are going to get murdered here vs. a Bearcat team that torched Houston last week for almost 600 yards. And Houston can actually play defense. Tulsa is also very able to put up 40 as they spread and pass all game, using the run like Wash. St. as just a way to keep the defense honest. Both teams vying for a bowl spot.

Wash. St/ UCLA- over 65.5 The Cougs have to be somewhat exhausted after their series of tough games, and now they're on the road. But as I said last week, I think their defense is going to be more spent, more physically tired and especially in the 2nd half. But, that being said, this UCLA team has lost some key defensive players, and has also been vulnerable to high powered offenses. Wazzu's PAC 12 games have been over this number by quite a bit or just barely under it. They stop the clock often with 60-70 passes a game.

 

[ofred]

Alabama/ Miss. St.- under 51.5 Alabama's defense, like a few years ago, is becoming extremely stingy- almost ridiculously so. I think this plays into their whole philosophy of winning games. Completely stuff your opponents(and man did they do that vs. LSU….and others this year), and let your offense play somewhat conservative running the ball, protecting the ball. Miss. St. has played a weaker schedule, and I'm not sure how they'll do here defensively, but I don't think QB Prescott will be able to win this game, or create scoring chances, like he has vs. some of those weaker teams. Alabama can dominate on the defensive front like no other college team.

 

[cashflow50]

Just love these o/u's , but local took all totals out maybe knowing the concept you're preaching Fred. Do you have anymore spread plays other than totals? gl fred

 

[ofred]

3 Smaller Plays:

New Mexico +30.5 Dare to go against Boise! New Mexico has a great running game and a better defense than in the past. Boise is not blowing teams away as much as they used to, and this game could easily be a back door cover at 30.5. New Mexico's run game keeps the clock running making 30.5 a very decent point total.

Rutgers +8 This is Rutgers' bowl game, trying to beat Nebraska at home after Nebraska knocked off MSU. Both teams have atrocious pass defenses. Nebraska coming off their huge win, and the way they have been SO inconsistent, they could actually lose this game.

Iowa St. + 13.5 Iowa St. is getting about 20% of the money and this line has not changed. With Baylor on deck, and off of their big win vs. TCU last week, I can see a let down. Iowa St. always plays well at home vs. better teams and they have got a very good running game now with Mike Warren. The Cowboys just want a win here, not looking for style points.

 

[ofred]

Just love these o/u's , but local took all totals out maybe knowing the concept you're preaching Fred. Do you have anymore spread plays other than totals? gl fred

The totals should be back up by tomorrow AM if your guy is a reputable book. But, I did bet a little more than usual on my small plays. Like them all. Also, love CAL tomorrow. If they don't dominate the 1st half, I think they'll dominate the 2nd half. I'm going to bet equally, so if I only win the 2nd half bet, I'll break even. Not doubling up.

 

[ofred]

Adding a little more to: Rutgers +8 and Arkansas +7 (-130)

 

[cashflow50]

Fred..you're not a little hesitant that lsu got pounded by Bama last week? Does arky have enough to hold them back a bit? Thanks bud

 

[ofred]

Fred..you're not a little hesitant that lsu got pounded by Bama last week? Does arky have enough to hold them back a bit? Thanks bud

Pounded is the right word. After a very physical rivalry game, one with playoff implications, I think LSU will be a little on the let down. LSU's offense is still too much Fournette. Besides, Arkansas' offense can match scores here.

Adding small play:

Missouri +4.5 It's going to be an emotional locker room and sideline for Missouri. Yes, their offense is inept, but BYU's D is nothing special. Missouri defense keeps them in the game for a late win. I also know the distractions are there, but I like the solidarity that Pinkel showed his players, and now with his sickness, I think they'll play hard. Have watched BYU, and my impression is that they have not recruited well defensively.

 

[cashflow50]

True Fred so true..ill tail ya on that one bro. Thanks

 

[ofred]

One tiny play, but not too tiny (cuz I'm posting it):

Michigan St. -14 (-120) I just got to bet this one. The books are begging for Maryland money at +14.5. MSU off their loss, Maryland hanging close with better teams, who wouldn't take Maryland? So why won't they drop this to 14? I think it's because Maryland has shot their wad, goes on the road in a miserable season, and doesn't play with a good effort. MSU still only has one loss, with an outside chance for a playoff spot (they won't get it, but they don't know that). MSU rolls.

 

[ofred]

Florida now looking more doable now that line has dropped to 7. Might put a bit on that.