Week 10 thoughts

[jaypaw]

I am looking at the potential for Seattle to compete with the rams.

The rams are favored by -1.5

Seattle might be worth a shot - remember they played the pats tough in NE, it was 23-20 late in the 4th quarter until dillon punched in the final TD with only 2 mins left in the game.

If the pats can ream the rams at St louis without ty law then seattle might be able to hold their own. Hopefully the line moves to more heavily favor st louis so I can get seattle with a slightly higher number the end of the week...

Any thoughts?

 

[ChadC]

You may want to sit back and see if you can get some more points out of this one. Seattle seems to have St Louis's number. I know they lost, but they had the Rams all but buried at the half. I am sure they learned their lesson and will keep their boots on the Rams' throats this time around.

 

[jaypaw]

I agree - sounds like a plan.

I looked at some other games and have come up with this so far (in order of how much I like them) - lemme know what you think:

Buffalo +8.5
This is a lot of points to give a team that just (BROKE ME) did as well as they did vs the Jets. The bills are actually turning out to have a pretty good defense thus far, and despite the pats 14 pt win in buffalo I have to bring up the memory of the 60 something yard fumble return by seymour, and the penalty by buffalo during the adam vinateri FG that virtually turned 3pts into 7. Besides that the game was "even-steven"...

Tampa +3.5
Offensive consistency is a problem for Atlanta so this one could be a crapshoot - however on paper these two teams are pretty even offensively (evenly bad) but defensively is where tampa has a significant strength. Might be worth a shot.

Giants -2.5
I dont see a lot of reasons for the giants not being favored by more because in every category including strength of schedule, defense, and offense they are better performers. Their loss to chicago was a direct result of a crucial fumble recovery, a bunch of penalties, and 2 consecutive deep passes (all in the second quarter) by chicago to capitalize and win. I dont know how arizona is on takeaways but it would have to be as bad as it was vs chicago for the giants to lose again - and that isnt something that you can bet on happening two weeks in a row - especially with the giants who haven't been doing that much of that business this year.

Carolina +1
I'm not sure if I'll play this one. Its a total bottom feed but according to strength of schedule and a slight advantage on offense carolina looks like they should be able to keep up with SF on paper anyway.

 

[jaypaw]

I didnt realize how bad the strahan injury was - let alone that washington is out for the season as well...

 

[truelyhandicapping]

revenge factor is huge in the nfl J.


take the seahawks.

 

[jaypaw]

thanks true I'll keep that in mind - hadnt thought of that


heres my update now that the colts are done diddling around

Week 1 Result: 1-2 -1.11
L--NE -3.5 +106
L--Giants +9 (-111)
W--Oak +4 (-105)

Week 2 Result: 2-2-1 -0.05
Push--Oakland -3 -118 (+0.0))
L--Skins -3 -105 (-1.05)
L--Minnesota +3 +101 (-1.0)
W--Jets -3 -114 (+1.0)
W--4 team 13pter (+1.0)
Redskins +10
Oakland +9½
Jets +10
Minnesota +16

Week 3 Result: 4-0 +4.02
W--New York Giants -3 -135
W--Oakland -3.5 -106
W--Philly -4.5 +102
W--Dallas Cowboys +2 -120

Week 4 Result: 2-2 -1.50
W--Indianapolis Colts -3 (-145)
W--St. Louis Rams -3 (-135)
L--Oakland Raiders -2 (-110)
L--Baltimore Ravens ML (-240)

Week 5 Result: 1-2 -1.35
L--Jags -3 (+105)
L--Dallas -3 (-135)
W--Carolina +6 (-115)

Week 6 Result: 2-0 +2.0
W--Minny -3 (-121)
W--Minny (-180)

Week 7 Result: 1-2 -1.05
L-#1 Atlanta Falcons +4 (-105)
W-#2 New York Jets +6½ (-105)
L-#3 3 team ML parlay (+142)
Philadelphia Eagles -320, Sun@1:00p
St. Louis Rams -270, Sun@1:00p
Seattle Seahawks -290, Sun@4:15p

Week 8 Result: 2-2 -0.05
L-Indianapolis Colts pk (-105)
L-Cinncy +3 (+108)
W-GB -2 (-110)
W-Chicago -1.5 (-104)

Week 9 Result: 2-4 -2.3
L-Jets -3 (even)
L-Kansas City -3 (-105)
L-Cowboys pk (-110)
W-Pats +2 (+100)
L-Cleveland at +6.5 (-115)
W-Minny +7.5 (-115)

YTD 17-16 -1.41

 

[jaypaw]

My favorites so far are Seattle and Buffalo, with Dallas a "maybe".

I also think that the Giants game will be a lot closer than I had originally thought because their defense (as compared to the weak offense of arizona) was part of the reason I originally had liked them to win easily...

Any thoughts?

 

[bobthefireman]

I don't know about sea.....

Seattle pick goes against my "you're not as good, or bad, as you looked last week theory". Seattle won big, St.Louis stole lots of bettors money (witness line movement).....that means joe public likely back on hawks, and down on martz.
I am leaning towards my usual ATP (against the public) play here......
which means ,...play rams.

I do like your NYG play for basically the same reasons. Strahan being out, like all publicly known injuries (pennington,moss, leftwich, for example ) is already baked into the cake. You think linemaker doesn't know those guys are out?
line already has that factored in,...along with joe public's over reaction to injuries. I lean toward NYG,....

GL
BTF :kicking:

 

[jaypaw]

Good points bob

seattle did eat the big one vs arizona of all teams (a game in which arizonas margin of victory was provided solely by their 3 unlikely FGs of OVER 50 yards EACH)

BUT

How do the rams lose at home to the pats (without ty law)?

 

[WizardofWins]

I am looking at the potential for Seattle to compete with the rams.

The rams are favored by -1.5

Seattle might be worth a shot - remember they played the pats tough in NE, it was 23-20 late in the 4th quarter until dillon punched in the final TD with only 2 mins left in the game.

If the pats can ream the rams at St louis without ty law then seattle might be able to hold their own. Hopefully the line moves to more heavily favor st louis so I can get seattle with a slightly higher number the end of the week...

Any thoughts?

The line is moving the other way, looks like Seattle will ba a fav at game time

 

[Birdman]

Jaypaw: Been away a while. Stay away from Carolina. I see them every week and there simply is no cohesion. Last year the Panthers were recipients of great health and fortunate playmaking by Delhomme. This season is total opposite and Car should be 0-9 but Delhomme still had luck on his side at KC week three as he had prayers answered with some up for grab throws thta went his way much like all last year.

 

[Birdman]

Oh, forgot. Think Sea is solid at St Lou. Alexander should run wild and Seahawks are better coached. Believe Seattle had their two/three week swoon that every team suffers through at some point in season with the exception of the Pats last 16 months.

 

[jaypaw]

its great to hear from you birdman - its been a long time

I see what you mean about Carolina and I admit it would be a complete bottom feed.

How much have you seen of San Fran this year? They are pretty aweful as well but I havent seen much of either team.

 

[jaypaw]

Grabbing these now:

Buffalo +8 (-115)
Dallas +7 (-128)
Minny +5 (-115)
Seattle pk (-110)

 

[jaypaw]

Still comtemplating tampa and the giants.

I dont see how carolina can lose but Birdman you arent the first to warn me about them so....

 

[WizardofWins]

Overrated GIANTS

The Giants may be the most overrated team in the NFL

LOOK OUT

 

[jaypaw]

How do you arrive at that conclusion?

The stats are the stats - The giants have a stong running game, mediocre passing game, and now an even softer defense. On the Arizona side of things its pretty apparent that the Arizona weakness is their rush defense. Its clear that the Arizona offense needs some work in all categories and all things considered its tough to conclude that in any way the arizona offense could outplay the giants offense (considering both defenses are now equally penetrable).

 

[jaypaw]

Giants -2 (-106)


I hope I dont have to admit you told me so...

 

[jaypaw]

Gonna add one more

Detroit +3 (+105)

Stat wise these teams are pretty similar but what stands out is the way Detoit handled houston (and Jacksonville didnt) and the fact that without leftwich there isnt much else to talk about with this team.

I hate going with this many picks but I think my reasoning is sound for the most part. I'm gonna decline on cleveland I think because although they may have a chance I still am confronted with the toughness overall of the pitt D.

Giants -2 (-106)
Buffalo +8 (-115)
Minny +5 (-115)
Seattle pk (-110)
Detroit +3 (+105)
Dallas +7 (-128)

 

[jaypaw]

had just one more comment on the NO KC game...

I was tempted to go with KC but then I checked the record and found that in the 3 games this year where priest was held to under 75 yds his team lost all three of those games.

The offense of NO is so bad that Trent green could sit back and kneel it all game long and they would still have a chance to log more yds on offense than NO... At any rate I'm not willing to take the risk to see how bad KC can be without mr. holmes in the lineup. I'm pretty sure they will win but I just dont think its worth the risk.

GL