Analysis for both picks tonight:
Houston +23.5
Dana Holgerson the new head coach for cougars takes over an explosive offensive team that was riddled by injuries and poor defense coming down the stretch in 2018. The state of texas puts up more blue chip players than nearly anyone in the country, and Houston is a hub for talent. Holgo spent the majority of his career in and around texas before leaving to go into Appalachia where he had some explosive offenses. He inherits a hungry, and enthusiastic team that wants to put up points quickly. D' eriq King put up 50 TDS last season, and has a small chance at a heisman appearance. The defense has seen better days in houston and will be a focal point for the game tonight. Can hurts expose them? Probably, but there is a learning curve for a new QB in a new offensive system. Oklahoma defense has a lot of question marks, not saying they arent going to be good down the line but the first game always provides challenges for coordinators and players. King is a stud, and i think the cougars get off to a good start, and keep it close until halfway through the 3rd quarter. Final Score Prediction: Okla 43, Houston 26
Under 79.5
Looking at last years statistics both Oklahoma and Houstons offenses were excellent, there is no denying that. Im not taking anything away from the past, but the old saying goes leave the past in the past. Tonights game is being played with so many storylines, and so much attention on new coaches, new systems and new players (mainly hurts). Game pressure is real, and leads to early mistakes. Experience tells me that its going to take a few games for the wheels to gain momentum. The total has gone under in 4 of houstons last 5 games against an opponent in the big 12. Ill take the rust, and the trends. See above for score.
In addition to tonights game i wanted to share some thoughts about the game tomorrow. I am from Louisville, and have been a fan for my entire life. I typically lay off of the games just from a fans perspective, but i couldnt help but look at tomorrow match up and think yikes we are in for a long night, barring no surprises. Scott Satterfield comes from Appalachian state, unproven in any power 5 conference. When he was there his teams were discipline, hard nosed, old school, and family oriented. Which i love dont get me wrong, but no matter who you are inheriting a team that lost 10 games last year, there is an uphill battle. The last 7 games for louisville last year were loses, 5 of them being by 31 or more points. You dont change that overnight. Its just alot to make up for. Through the grapevine around town i have heard that there are some hidden gems on the team that just hated bobby petrino and didnt want to give any effort for him, and there are even some people prediction a bowl game for the cards, i disagree but love the optimism. Louisville fans will be a 7/10 tomorrow, excited for game but with very low expectations, i will personally be there and have the same attitude to be honest. Jawon Pass return for Louisville as the QB with alot of potential and recently stated that "nothing about last year was fun", in contrast said something like this year is a 180 degree turnaround from a cultural perspective. Louisville has some weapons at the skill positions per usual, but they have no depth on the line or at defense in general. ND returns a good QB in Ian Book, and three studs on defense Julian Okwara, Jalen Elliot, and Alohi Gilman. Louisville is just simply outmatched on every aspect of this game...im trying to look for a reason to have Louisville cover but i just dont see any.
Look for louisville to start fast, the crowd to be into it and the energy to be high. It wont take but about 14 points to drive that train straight downhill.
I am playing ND -19.5 because of the new coaching staff, holes in the offensive, and defensive lines. The strength of ND's secondary, and the experience of the QB Book.
Another side note, i saw a play earlier 1H Total U 29.5. I think its pretty good, i am going to probably take that as well.
Thanks!
-ville