Week 1 plays

[United]

A lot of good info in this forum. I think it's great to see so many talking college foots. Going to paste my early game play on this thread.

Tulsa -13 1/2 @ Tulane (2)

Getting the fever really bad. I like this one a lot so I'm on it before it hits 14.
Tulsa finished with a 11-3 record including that 45-13 thumping of Ball State in a bowl game. Now they may have lost their QB but they still will have one of the best offenses once again this season. They led the nation the past two years, averaging 543.9 ypg in 08, and 569.9 last year. They return 3 very good receivers including Damarius Johnson who led conf USA with 2475 all purpose yards for 176.8 per game. He had 1382 yards returning kicks.

And their 3rd year coach just signed a new lucrative 10 year contract. I would think he would want to jump on this first opponent early and often. Tulane only had 2 wins last season and this season probably won't be much better. They only averaged 221 ypg and 16.7 points on offense last year. Their D gave up over 40 points in 6 out of their last 8 games. Of course they have their 3rd defensive coordinator in as many years. They gave up 34.9 ppg last year. I know it's opening game and they are at home but I just think Tulsa will cover this spread. Take a look at the last 4 between the two teams.

11/22/08 TULNE 7 - TULSA 56 TULSA -28.5 U 69 -361 -416 55
11/03/07 TULSA 49 - TULNE 25 TULSA -6.5 O 66 -199 -167 -32
11/24/06 TULNE 3 - TULSA 38 TULSA -17 U 53 -306 -117 -189
11/19/05 TULSA 38 - TULNE 14 TULSA -16 U 55.5

Graham's teams always try to score and his system obviously is very committed to offense. The Tulsa D gave up a lot points last year but coach says it's his best defensive team and their up against a very weak offensive team. So I'm going play 2 units on this early season game and hope it's a coaster.


<!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->
Georgia @ Oklahoma St -6 (2)


Oklahoma St can move the football through the air or on the ground thanks to a veteran QB in Robinson. It doesn't hurt any that RB Hunter rushed for 1,555 yards. To add to the already explosive offense they have Bryant back at wr. He only went for 1,480 yards receiving last season. Their line is very experienced and very quick. Their D should hold their own with all 3 linebackers returning. Not that I'm that down on Georgia, as they will always be a tough out. I just don't see how they are going to stay up with this explosive Cowboy offense. Stafford is gone at QB, although Sr. Cox does have a fine arm it will still be tough on the road for this opener. Moreno ranked as one of the most toughest rb's to bring down. He will also be missed as opposing teams don't have to constantly be aware of his presence. It's not often I'll give points to an SEC team, but I believe Georgia will need them in this one.


BYU @ Oklahoma -22 (2)

Kind of tough to give up this many to a team with a very good qb and a pretty tough rb in Unga. They only return 4 starters on that offense including their front 4 on the OL. I just can't see them scoring enough enough points to keep up with the Sonners. They better hope they don't get their fine qb Hall hurt in this one. Bradford will just take off where he left off last season and with two 1000 yard rushers in the backfield this team could put up 60 if they want. The D returns everyone and they have some very good one's that will be All American candidates. I personnally think Oklahoma takes it all this year.

They play pretty good in Sept. as they are 9-1 ats last 10.
They are also 19-7-1 ats last 277 with a line of 10.5 or more.
For what's it's worth, BYU 1-7 ats last 8 games.


ULM @ Texas -40 1/2 (2)

ULM was a pretty decent team ats last season. They also had a pretty decent QB who is now graduated. They are predicted to finish in the middle of the pack in the Sun Belt. Now their playing a top team in the country on the road and I jsut can't imagine them keeping up. McCoy is a 4 year starter and we all know what a threat he is both with the pass and run. I'm sure he'd like to capture the Heisman this year(2nd last year), along with a national championship. Shipley is back for his 6th year at WR. Althjough I don't think they will lead the nation in sacks this year,(lost some key players), they should still be force to deal with once again.

Although ULM played opponents close to the number last year they still struggled against Mississippi (59-0) and even Auburn beat them 34-0. Auburn struggled to score points last year so if they put up 34 I can only imagine what Texas is capable of doing.

ULM are 1-4 ats last 5 vs Big 12.
Texas are 10-4 ats last 14.
Texas are 5-1 ats last 6 vs Sun Belt.
Texas are 17-7 last 24 as a home fav of 10.5 or more.

There are only a few teams I'll give up this many points with and I took them both in week 1. Florida coach likes to cover the PS for the alumni also.

Looking at a few other games. Probably one of the few that leans towards WF at home. Baylor definitely will be better but still like the demons at home. Also a lean on Notre Dame. Nevada really getting a lot of hype from the West Coasters, and they do have ine heck of a offense. I just think they are in a tough spot in this opener away from home.

Comments and info always welcome,
Good luck everyone

 

[OAKAS]

Hey United. Look forward to your plays.

Are you still coaching?

I don't think our old forum even exists, does it?

Good luck on your plays.

I know one of my bets for the first week is going to be Colorado.

 

[ultrahogfan]

With Tulsa losing their Off. Coor., starting RB and starting QB, I gotta think it will be a slow start, i could be wrong though.

Good Luck

 

[United]

Hey United. Look forward to your plays.

Are you still coaching?

I don't think our old forum even exists, does it?

Good luck on your plays.

I know one of my bets for the first week is going to be Colorado.

Oakas,

How did you know it was me? I couldn't use the name action on this forum. Someone is already registered as action. The call name still exists. No forum though. I use the name Hoosier Action at another place. I still coach the hoops. Going to take a closer look at Colorado nowd1g1t Nice to see your still around.

Ultrahogfan,

You could be right. Tulane D is pretty bad though. I would think HC for Tulsa would recruit the kind of qb that fits into this agressive offense.

Good luck

 

[OAKAS]

Oakas,

How did you know it was me? I couldn't use the name action on this forum. Someone is already registered as action. The call name still exists. No forum though. I use the name Hoosier Action at another place. I still coach the hoops. Going to take a closer look at Colorado nowd1g1t Nice to see your still around.



Hey United. I figured it out when I saw you posting the same picks and write-ups and from Indiana.

I see Ron is not having his big contest this year.

Good luck this year my friend.:toast:

 

[United]

Thanks Oakas and good luck to you my friend.

Navy +23 @ Ohio St (2)

Navy is coming off a pretty good season under first year coach Niumatalolo's reign. They won the rushing title for the 4th year in a row and went to their 6th straight bowl game. Navy has certainly established that they can compete, as they won 4 games last year against teams that went to a bowl game. Navy returns 11 starters from last year. Although they lose a really good qb and a pair of rb's who combined for over 2000 yards, they still have plenty of talent who are used to this system. Navy returns most of its D from last season. Navy is soild on the line with veterans that know their blocking schemes. And when they have to punt, and I'm sure they will, their punter averaged 41.6 last year.

I like these stats also:

Navy are 53-22 ats last 75 road games.
OS are 0-5 ats last 5 games in Sept.
OS are 1-6 ats last 7 home games.
OS are 1-5 ats last 6 as a fav of 10 1/2 or more.

Ohio State of course will have a super athlete at QB in Pryor. They did lose some studs from a very tough D in Laurinatis and Jenkins. In all 28 seniors graduated from that team. Of course Ohio State is always deep in talent and will just reload in those spots.

I picture this game with the clock running as Navy eats a lot of clock with that offense. They only had 20 receptions last year the entire season. I can't picture them deviating from that even if they do get down a few scores in this game. That is who they are and how they play the game. Ohio St has made a lot of changes and switches on both the offensive and defensive line. I also think they will try to establish their running game. Hopefully Pryor will work on staying in the pocket(at least that's what they say they want to do) and not getting loose for huge gains. The one good thing is Ohio State doesn't run up the score on teams. The coach is a true gentleman when it comes to that. I think Ohio St will play a lot of players if they get out way ahead. I guess I think 23 points is a awful lot to give this Navy team and most teams usually have some respect for the academies in these situations.

Good luck my friends

 

[fballplaya]

Ohio St 20
Navy 6

 

[United]

Ohio St 20
Navy 6

I would be very happy if that was the final

The under is looking very tempting.

 

[United]

Nevada @ Notre Dame -14 (2)At first I wasn't going to play this game. After further review I'm really starting to like it a lot. Not going to go into the ND plays noone and their always favored by more than they should be. Because it's true. But in this case their opponent's schedule is also weak. At least the entire conference seems to leave the D at home. They do have a ton of players back and will be a top tier team in their conference and even a better team at home. Point is they are hitting the road where they are 3-8 ats last 11 games and 4-9 ats last 13 road games as a dog of 10 1/2 or more. Yes they score a ton of points against the cupcakes but they only scored 17 at Missouri and 19 at home against Texas Tech. Now you know as well as I do that those two teams are also known for their offense and not their D. No doubt Nevada is out of their territory and playing their opener in a very hostile enviroment. ND did finish at 7-6 last season and a very strong win vs Hawaii in a bowl game (49-21). I see Nevada lost to Hawaii 38-31. I don't know. Just don't see how the Nevada D is going keep the Irish out of the end zone in this one. 10 starters back on offense and 6 on the D with a heck of a lot more depth at most of the positions than Nevada could spell a long day. Baylor @ Wake Forest -2 (2)Just wanted to bet it now in case it does go up a 1/2 or a 1 point. Will have to write this one up a little later this evening when I have more time.Good Luck

 

[United]

Baylor @ WF -2 (2)

Baylor was a darling team ats last year. They finished at 4-8 but were much better ats at 8-2. They still didn't get a W on the road and their opening up against the same team that beat them last year at home 41-13. At first I thought WF must have graduated the entire team. Baylor has a shit load of layers returning and they will be a tough out whoever they play this year. I still think WF will get it done in this one at home. They also return a bunch of starters on offense including Skinner at QB who enters his Sr. season as the most accurate passer in ACC history. I always like having the experienced qb on my side especially at home. The opener should bring plenty of fans to the game. WF should be a very well balanced team as they are healthy to start the season and will follow a veteran offensive line. The D took a hit losing some vets but they did rank 16th last season in ppg. I respect Baylor and realize they are a hungry team with bowl expectations. Still taking the home team in this one.

I have a lot of leans on games, but I'm going to stop at 7.

Final card for week 1:

All for 2 units

Tulsa -13 1/2

Oklahoma St -6

Oklahoma -22

Texas -40 1/2

Navy +23

Notre Dame -14

Wake Forest -2

Comments and info always welcome

 

[midman2161]

I love the Texas play.. I would be shocked to see them only win by 42, and then it would still be a cover. I'm guessing it will be in the fifties though, with ULM not likely to score

 

[United]

Midman,

It sure would be nice to get a coaster@)

 

[fivestarjake]

i'm really leaning towards navy also. as everyone knows ohio st. has BIG game vs usc and we saw how they handled this same scenario vs ohio last year(with a more talented team). 1 player the buckeyes can't afford to lose is pyror. although i would like to see bauserman get in some snaps with pyror maybe in the slot. i believe they save that trickery the following week though. you would think ohio st. keeps it "vanilla" here. i like navy to keep within the #.

 

[United]

i'm really leaning towards navy also. as everyone knows ohio st. has BIG game vs usc and we saw how they handled this same scenario vs ohio last year(with a more talented team). 1 player the buckeyes can't afford to lose is pyror. although i would like to see bauserman get in some snaps with pyror maybe in the slot. i believe they save that trickery the following week though. you would think ohio st. keeps it "vanilla" here. i like navy to keep within the #.

Very good points I don't think they will want to get Pryror hurt in this game. Otherwords, like you said nothing fancy.

 

[kegman]

good luck.

 

[United]

Thanks Kegman

News from Purdue:

Sophmore rb Ralph Bolden has beaten out last year's senior starter Jayceen Taylor. Coach says he's a complete back that makes big plays. Coach also says that they are very deep at that position and will try to take advantage of it.

All those against Purdue this week:

No action for me on this one. I noticed a lot on Toledo and the points and with good cause. With Tiller gone this team will be completely different than Boiler teams we have grown accustomed to week after week. They almost solely depended on the pasing game. I just think many will be surprised as Purdue will try to run the ball a lot more this season.

 

[fivestarjake]

Thanks Kegman

News from Purdue:

Sophmore rb Ralph Bolden has beaten out last year's senior starter Jayceen Taylor. Coach says he's a complete back that makes big plays. Coach also says that they are very deep at that position and will try to take advantage of it.

All those against Purdue this week:

No action for me on this one. I noticed a lot on Toledo and the points and with good cause. With Tiller gone this team will be completely different than Boiler teams we have grown accustomed to week after week. They almost solely depended on the pasing game. I just think many will be surprised as Purdue will try to run the ball a lot more this season.

which should have us focusing on the under 50' imo

 

[United]

:toast:

Good luck tomorrow everyone