Week 1 Leans

[HinesWard86]

Will come back with analysis later, but right now these are my early leans for Week 1. All feedback is welcome.

South Carolina -19.5 vs. UCF
Minnesota -14.5 at Tulsa (biggest play probably)
Vanderbilt +9 at Wake Forest
Bowling Green ML at Wisconsin
Colorado St. +7.5 at Colorado
Boise St. +7 at Georgia
Auburn -7 vs. Georgia Tech
UCLA -7.5 at SD St.
Texas -39.5 vs. UL Lafayette (2nd biggest play)
Memphis -2.5 vs. Ole Miss
Miami-FSU under 37.5
Washington-Air Force under 50.5
Hawaii-USC over 66.5

All lines courtesy of Pinnacle

 

[LSUpete]

Wow.....is the number really 37.5 in the Miami game......YIKES.


Also, do you really expect USC to score over 66 on Hawaii?

 

[HinesWard86]

I expect the USC-Hawaii game to be something like 51-21. Hawaii will get a couple TD's but USC should score 50.

 

[LSUpete]

ALL I've heard about Hawaii is how bad their offense will be this year. I see this game being 56-0.

 

[AlwaysKeen]

with you on CSU...against you on Minnesota...

 

[JDogg1777]

I like some of your plays, but be careful betting on alot of HUGE favorites. It is the first week and sometimes a team might not play to their potential in the first few games. Plus in these early games, if the favorite jumps out to a big lead they are more likely to play reserves to get valuable game experience and to see if the offseason preparation and conditiong are where they expect it to be. Just some thoughts, but i'm with you on Vandy and the Miami/FSU under, i'll be suprised to see more that 30 points in that one. Good luck and happy gambling season everyone

 

[AlwaysKeen]

excellent advice JDogg...

 

[HinesWard86]

only betting on 3 big favorites and each of them are legitimate reasons

Texas and Minnesota always start off blowing people out. Mason and Brown love to run up the score. I think both of these teams could win by 50. And So. Car., Spurrier is known for running up the score on everyone he can. UCF is also godawful and should again be a bottom 5 team in the nation. it is good advice, but these games look very good.

 

[redpimp]

I had USc-19 but i am totally bailing off this play.... There are way too many question marks around this team for me to have played it!!!The squad looks absolutely nothing like the former team, has no credible run game (yes Spurrier dismissed his two probably NFL calibre running backs), its gonna be that bullshit fun and gun crap in the hands of unproven Qbs..I dont like the way spurrier wings his games, pulling plays out of the air and switching around qbs like some kinda roulette...


Dont get me wrong, i am not saying that this team will be a Redskin type total flop under spurrier....Its just common sense that has prevailed in this case and helped me conclude that USC-19 for a week one game is a very lousy play!!! If the team had largely remained intact from last year, i would consider it...But there is no way i am risking my loot on all those freshmen and back ups!!!


Ps..I am gonna wait for the line to move hopefully to about 21 or even 22 and slap money on the otherside!


Will look forward to betting on them week 3 or week 4 when we all have a good idea as to what kind of team they are.

 

[redpimp]

Also I had Vanderbilt+9 but i am gonna back off this play totally..


This has nothing to do with real football inside info or anything at all.

I am just one of those many who have lived in nashville for 7 years now and i have never ever even experienced a single year where big things were not expected out of this team...Its kinda of amazing..They dont have rabid fans or anything but some how you always hear snippets of info telling you they are gonna do this and that this year and are gonna be great or are gonna win more than 1 game that year... I swear its the uncanniest thing that i have ever seen.. I pathetic team that never achieves anything yet some how always manages to create some buzz some way or another and actually has people seriously looking at them..

I wont fall in this trap again..I have fallen for it 4 years in a row and this year wont be a repeat!!!

If they win the game outright, then great for them..I will jump on the band wagon when they show me something....

This is another play i am just waiting for the line to move so i can bet the other side and salvage my original bet with a small possibility of a middle.

 

[silver7]

Red one

I feel your pain, as I also have it to some degree w/my beloved Goofers. Pound everybody including the hated Big Blue at least for the 1st half then it all turns to sh*t! But in the case of Vandy in this gm I took them for a small $$ bought it from 9.5 to 10. Luck to both of us my friend. Maroney should get 4 TD`s against Tulsa, may be best we`ve ever had @ that spot. But with Mason as coach I always fear the BD!!

 

[AlwaysKeen]

I just don't trust Minnesota on the road Silver...