week 1 going against superbowl participants is profitable

[gamblingshark1]

whether its losing players to free agency, or players holding out for bigger contracts, or the public loving to play the top 2 teams from the year before, this angle of fading the superbowl participants from the prior year on week 1 has worked for quite awhile for me. If the first game loses then double up the 2nd game. quit if the first game wins. this year game 1 is atlanta down from +4.5 to +3 now. no line on this one game forever at my book. lost out on the +5 chance. game 2 is ne -6.5, will buy to the 7 if necessary. the last 10 years has only seen both game 1 and game 2 win once, did not ever lose both game 1 and 2, overall record is
9-5-4 not counting year 2016 which would be a win fading the superbowl winner

2017 new England vs atlanta sb
then week 1 ne-7 loses outright to kc,atl -6 is a push

2016 Carolina vs Denver
then week 1 Carolina plays Denver -1.5 and the superbowl winner won by 1

2015 seattle vs new England
then week 1 seattle -3.5 lost by 3, ne -6.5 won by 7, ( I always buy to a solid number)

2014 seattle vs Denver
then week 1 seattle won by 20, Denver -7 was a push

2013 Baltimore vs sf
then week 1 Baltimore +7.5 (missing key players)lost by 18, sf -4.5 won by 6

2012 nyg vs ne
then week 1 nyg -3.5 lost by 7, ne won by 21

2011 gb vs pitt
then week 1 gb -5 won by 8, pitt lost by 28

2010 saints vs indy
then week 1 saints -4.5,5 won by 5, indy lost by 10

2009 pitt vs ariz
then week 1 pitt -6.5 won by 3, ariz -5 lost by 4

2008 nyg vs ne
then week 1 nyg won by 9, ne -16 won by 7

 

[pizza]

good stuff

 

[gamblingshark1]

Lines have come down on both games...Houston is +6 juiced now

 

[Twisted]

Iggles r gunna get smoked!

 

[gamblingshark1]

Sheesh...from atl +4.5 to atl -1...see if 1 of these superbowl teams don't cover

 

[BigLouReturns]

That's why you handicap the game at hand.

 

[SaintsFan1977]

SB winner the following year is like 11-4 since 2001. Hard to go against that. Good luck going forward.

 

[gamblingshark1]

ATL with at least 14 penalties and Matt Ryan looked like crap the whole 2nd half and ATL defenders laying all over the field ..all that and the only thing needed was an extra point made on a td and they cover the original line.
On to the next one...Houston +7 hopefully..the line dipped to 5.5 and is back to 6 now

 

[BigLouReturns]

ATL with at least 14 penalties and Matt Ryan looked like crap the whole 2nd half and ATL defenders laying all over the field ..all that and the only thing needed was an extra point made on a td and they cover the original line.
On to the next one...Houston +7 hopefully..the line dipped to 5.5 and is back to 6 now

And if they can hold a 28-3 lead over the Patriots in the Super Bowl...but they don't.

And if they scored a TD on 4th and goal in Philly in the divisional round last season...but they don't.

And if they score a TD last night on several red zone trips...but they don't.

Can you see the pattern here???

 

[wizard1183]

And if they can hold a 28-3 lead over the Patriots in the Super Bowl...but they don't.

And if they scored a TD on 4th and goal in Philly in the divisional round last season...but they don't.

And if they score a TD last night on several red zone trips...but they don't.

Can you see the pattern here???

That they DONT get it done? lol

 

[BigLouReturns]

That they DONT get it done? lol

Correct! This Atlanta team reminds me a lot of the Houston Oilers from the last 80's - early 90's. At times their offense looked unstoppable but they just could not win that crucial game. Just like the Falcons couldn't hold a huge lead in the super bowl, the Oilers blew a 35-3 lead in Buffalo during the wild card round of the 1992 season. I don't think a team ever recovers from a loss that devastating and so far the Falcons look exactly like last season.

 

[Twisted]

Yea fuck Atlanta!!!

 

[sunshine11]

So bet against Philly next game. Who are they playing btw?

 

[gamblingshark1]

So bet against Philly next game. Who are they playing btw?

My thread does not say to bet against philly next game. the next game is today. Houston +7 -125 and then the thread is done.

 

[BigLouReturns]

My thread does not say to bet against philly next game. the next game is today. Houston +7 -125 and then the thread is done.

"this angle of fading the superbowl participants from the prior year on week 1 has worked for quite awhile for me. If the first game loses then double up the 2nd game."

Your Philly angle lost so according to your post, double up the 2nd game. Your words.

 

[rubadubrob]

Good luck with Houston GShark. Looking for the split!

 

[gamblingshark1]

"this angle of fading the superbowl participants from the prior year on week 1 has worked for quite awhile for me. If the first game loses then double up the 2nd game."

Your Philly angle lost so according to your post, double up the 2nd game. Your words.

I think I see what you are saying now,,,but in all the above examples it was game 1 and game 2 on the same day,, nothing with stats showing what happened week 2 to a losing team the prior week,,,both games take place on the same day. and Houston just pushed,,,so once again there has not been 2 losing plays on the same day in over 10 years,,i didn't look past 10 years

 

[exploited17]

What was that back to back road system you had last year? Did real good.

 

[gamblingshark1]

What was that back to back road system you had last year? Did real good.

im starting that thread up again. And I expect it to do even better this time by not just betting blindly on the 2nd game of a back to back road game where the road team won the first of the two. The few losses I had did not take into account one or more days rest advantage for the team I was betting against. The whole premise of the theory is that the team playing the 2nd game on the road is likely not as rested as the home team and even more so as the season goes on the travel takes its toll.

 

[SunDodger]

The angle is play on the SB winner. Fade the SB loser.



Defending SB champ is now 10-4-1 ATS when hosting on opening night, since 2004. They are 9-3-1 ATS when not more than a TD fav.

The SB loser is now on a 3-16 ATS run. 1-13 ATS when playing on the road.