While the NFL season turned out to be very profitable last year, winning 57% of my games and +31.90% of my bankroll, going 65-49, including winning 67% of my games from about week 11 on, the college season was equally as bad.
The good news was the situations I use actually won last year, winning about 55% of the games. The situations I use in college presented too many games for me to play each week (winning 57% over the last five years or so), so I decided to pick the winners out each week that I 'thought' were the 'best' plays. Unfortunately, halfway through the season, I was picking the losers out of the bunch, while keeping the winners on the table. The situations were winning about 58% of their games, at that point. I then decided to play all of the games for less per game. But, of course, those plays ended up winning around 55% for the year, down from the 58% half way through the season. Moral of the story is the information was solid, I just misplayed the information.
For this year, I have pulled the best strategies I have, which have never had a losing season, as far back as my database goes, which is 1988. Those will be the situations I use this year. When these situations conflict with the rest of my situations, the record is about .500. Knowing that, I will still be monitoring all of my situations to make sure I am not playing against them, while using the 'best of the best,' if you will, as my actual plays. Those plays will be rated as 3% of my bankroll and they should generate about 75-80 plays this year.
I will reserve 2% plays for some special situations, which apply once in a while, like this weekend. When these 'best of the best' situations have more than one situation applying to them, the record is even better and those plays will be considered for 3.5% or 4% plays.
Only time will tell, but I feel very confident playing from a list of situations which have not had any losing seasons since 1988.
A few notes about game 1 games. All home favorites since 1988 that are favored by -27 or more and playing their first game against an opponent who is also playing their first game, are just 16-30 ats. Playing large favorites in their first game is not profitable. Think twice before playing on Michigan, Minnesota, Washington State, Oklahoma, LSU, and Texas, who are all favorites of -27 or more.
Away underdogs, who have already played one game, and are a dog of +19 or more, are 14-5 ats. That fits San Jose State this week. And if those away dogs won their first game, they are 9-1 ats. Nothing earth shattering but something to think about.
For Saturday:
IOWA -10.5 Miami-OH.
Hawkeyes are coming off an extremely successful season last year but are in a bit of a rebuilding mode on offense this year. They return just one starting offensive lineman and have to replace Brad Banks at quarterback. While those substitutes should probably fill in successfully, it might take a few games to get in sync with each other. They take on a very solid Miami-OH club, who returns 14 of their starters, including four offensive lineman and most importantly, quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, who is a complete quarterback. Miami qualifies in a very solid returning starter situation, which is 88-36-3 71% since 1991. I rate teams as Class A, B, C and D teams. Class B and C teams (of which Miami is) fitting this situation are 69-22-3 and when going against Class B, C and D teams, of which Iowa is, it is 59-15-2 ats.
Using just stats from last year, my numbers, figured two different ways, favor Iowa by 19 points in this game. BUT, Iowa is not as good as last year and Miami-OH. is better than last year, or at least should be. That probably brings this line down to around 15 points, with those adjustments. In addition, this returning starter situation has covered games by an average of 6.9 points, which means the line of +10.5 plus the average situation of 6.9 points, creates a fair line of closer to 17.5 points. The linemaker has probably adjusted this line down a little too much but the situation is still very valid to make this play.
Much has also been written about Kirk Ferentz's mark of 5-0 as a non-conference favorite of more than 10 points, winning those games by an average score of 45-9. Miami finished 7-5 last year and could have been 8-4 if not for some questionable calls in a game at Marshall. But, let's look at who Iowa beat up on in those five non-conference games. In 1999, they beat a N. Illinois team who was 2-9 the year before. In 2001, they beat a Kent team who was 1-10 the year before and they beat this same Miami team, who was 6-5 the year before. More on that in a minute. In 2002, they beat an Akron team who was 4-7 the year before and a Utah State team who was also 4-7 the year before. The point being, they beat a bunch of teams who were terrible the year before. That is not the case with Miami. And the year they beat Miami was only Roethlisberger's second career game and he was a freshman that year. He is now a schooled veteran, who is also familiar with playing at Iowa.
The lone concern here is Iowa controlled the stats last year in Miami, beating them 29-24, but, again, I think Miami is a better team this year and should be able to make the adjustments. Miami has a good history of playing on the road and I like their chances here.
FLORIDA -24.5 San Jose State
SJ State qualifies in the same 88-36-3 situation that Miami qualified in. In addition, as previously noted, away dogs playing in their second game against teams playing in their first game, are 14-5 ats and 9-1 ats if they won their first game, which SJ State did, 29-0 over Grambling last week.
My numbers, using last year's stats, favor Florida by 27 points in this game, but SJ State is a better team this year and it's hard to tell how good Florida will be. Florida returns only three starters on defense so it might take a little time for them to adjust. Rating SJ State as a little better than last year should bring this line down to around 25 and the situation more than makes up for the rest of the difference. We also get an experienced quarterback in Scott Rislov.
Last item to note here is Florida has a game on deck with Miami-FL next week so I can't see them showing too much in this game. In addition, Florida must replace Rex Grossman and that could take them a game or two to make the necessary adjustments. I'll grab the points here against an uninterested Florida team.
KANSAS ST -37 Troy St
I'm having a hard time understanding this line. My numbers from last year favor Kansas State by scores of 54-0 and 49-4. And Kansas St. is probably better this year while Troy State, a good defensive team last year, returns only four starters on defense and only nine overall. So, there is value using last year's numbers and our play on team is better this year. And remember, this is Kansas State's second game so the large number shouldn't be a problem here.
But the real kicker here is Bill Snyder, who simply dominates inferior opponents. Snyder, since 1992, is now 21-4 ats against non-conference teams, winning those games by an average score of 46-7. And, if the line is higher than -24, he is 12-1 ats, winning by an average score of 57-3! Since 1997, Snyder is 29-9 overall at home and 24-3 if laying -20 or more points since 1995, winning by an average score of 49-6. I'll ride the train one more time with Snyder as a motivated head coach and what appears to be clear value.
COLLEGE BEST BETS
YTD 0-0
3% MIAMI-OH +10.5
3% SAN JOSE STATE +24.5
2% KANSAS STATE -37
The good news was the situations I use actually won last year, winning about 55% of the games. The situations I use in college presented too many games for me to play each week (winning 57% over the last five years or so), so I decided to pick the winners out each week that I 'thought' were the 'best' plays. Unfortunately, halfway through the season, I was picking the losers out of the bunch, while keeping the winners on the table. The situations were winning about 58% of their games, at that point. I then decided to play all of the games for less per game. But, of course, those plays ended up winning around 55% for the year, down from the 58% half way through the season. Moral of the story is the information was solid, I just misplayed the information.
For this year, I have pulled the best strategies I have, which have never had a losing season, as far back as my database goes, which is 1988. Those will be the situations I use this year. When these situations conflict with the rest of my situations, the record is about .500. Knowing that, I will still be monitoring all of my situations to make sure I am not playing against them, while using the 'best of the best,' if you will, as my actual plays. Those plays will be rated as 3% of my bankroll and they should generate about 75-80 plays this year.
I will reserve 2% plays for some special situations, which apply once in a while, like this weekend. When these 'best of the best' situations have more than one situation applying to them, the record is even better and those plays will be considered for 3.5% or 4% plays.
Only time will tell, but I feel very confident playing from a list of situations which have not had any losing seasons since 1988.
A few notes about game 1 games. All home favorites since 1988 that are favored by -27 or more and playing their first game against an opponent who is also playing their first game, are just 16-30 ats. Playing large favorites in their first game is not profitable. Think twice before playing on Michigan, Minnesota, Washington State, Oklahoma, LSU, and Texas, who are all favorites of -27 or more.
Away underdogs, who have already played one game, and are a dog of +19 or more, are 14-5 ats. That fits San Jose State this week. And if those away dogs won their first game, they are 9-1 ats. Nothing earth shattering but something to think about.
For Saturday:
IOWA -10.5 Miami-OH.
Hawkeyes are coming off an extremely successful season last year but are in a bit of a rebuilding mode on offense this year. They return just one starting offensive lineman and have to replace Brad Banks at quarterback. While those substitutes should probably fill in successfully, it might take a few games to get in sync with each other. They take on a very solid Miami-OH club, who returns 14 of their starters, including four offensive lineman and most importantly, quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, who is a complete quarterback. Miami qualifies in a very solid returning starter situation, which is 88-36-3 71% since 1991. I rate teams as Class A, B, C and D teams. Class B and C teams (of which Miami is) fitting this situation are 69-22-3 and when going against Class B, C and D teams, of which Iowa is, it is 59-15-2 ats.
Using just stats from last year, my numbers, figured two different ways, favor Iowa by 19 points in this game. BUT, Iowa is not as good as last year and Miami-OH. is better than last year, or at least should be. That probably brings this line down to around 15 points, with those adjustments. In addition, this returning starter situation has covered games by an average of 6.9 points, which means the line of +10.5 plus the average situation of 6.9 points, creates a fair line of closer to 17.5 points. The linemaker has probably adjusted this line down a little too much but the situation is still very valid to make this play.
Much has also been written about Kirk Ferentz's mark of 5-0 as a non-conference favorite of more than 10 points, winning those games by an average score of 45-9. Miami finished 7-5 last year and could have been 8-4 if not for some questionable calls in a game at Marshall. But, let's look at who Iowa beat up on in those five non-conference games. In 1999, they beat a N. Illinois team who was 2-9 the year before. In 2001, they beat a Kent team who was 1-10 the year before and they beat this same Miami team, who was 6-5 the year before. More on that in a minute. In 2002, they beat an Akron team who was 4-7 the year before and a Utah State team who was also 4-7 the year before. The point being, they beat a bunch of teams who were terrible the year before. That is not the case with Miami. And the year they beat Miami was only Roethlisberger's second career game and he was a freshman that year. He is now a schooled veteran, who is also familiar with playing at Iowa.
The lone concern here is Iowa controlled the stats last year in Miami, beating them 29-24, but, again, I think Miami is a better team this year and should be able to make the adjustments. Miami has a good history of playing on the road and I like their chances here.
FLORIDA -24.5 San Jose State
SJ State qualifies in the same 88-36-3 situation that Miami qualified in. In addition, as previously noted, away dogs playing in their second game against teams playing in their first game, are 14-5 ats and 9-1 ats if they won their first game, which SJ State did, 29-0 over Grambling last week.
My numbers, using last year's stats, favor Florida by 27 points in this game, but SJ State is a better team this year and it's hard to tell how good Florida will be. Florida returns only three starters on defense so it might take a little time for them to adjust. Rating SJ State as a little better than last year should bring this line down to around 25 and the situation more than makes up for the rest of the difference. We also get an experienced quarterback in Scott Rislov.
Last item to note here is Florida has a game on deck with Miami-FL next week so I can't see them showing too much in this game. In addition, Florida must replace Rex Grossman and that could take them a game or two to make the necessary adjustments. I'll grab the points here against an uninterested Florida team.
KANSAS ST -37 Troy St
I'm having a hard time understanding this line. My numbers from last year favor Kansas State by scores of 54-0 and 49-4. And Kansas St. is probably better this year while Troy State, a good defensive team last year, returns only four starters on defense and only nine overall. So, there is value using last year's numbers and our play on team is better this year. And remember, this is Kansas State's second game so the large number shouldn't be a problem here.
But the real kicker here is Bill Snyder, who simply dominates inferior opponents. Snyder, since 1992, is now 21-4 ats against non-conference teams, winning those games by an average score of 46-7. And, if the line is higher than -24, he is 12-1 ats, winning by an average score of 57-3! Since 1997, Snyder is 29-9 overall at home and 24-3 if laying -20 or more points since 1995, winning by an average score of 49-6. I'll ride the train one more time with Snyder as a motivated head coach and what appears to be clear value.
COLLEGE BEST BETS
YTD 0-0
3% MIAMI-OH +10.5
3% SAN JOSE STATE +24.5
2% KANSAS STATE -37
