Wednesday

[Coast2Coast]

0-4 yesterday
Record on Rx: 30-35-1 straights; 30-39-1 overall (including MLs)

Today:
Buying this one now as I don't believe the price will go any higher...More later when proper prices are in place (hopefully).

Virginia Tech +9 @ <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comffice:smarttags" /><st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Miami, 1 unit</st1lace></st1:City>
I’ve made some money on both these teams….Miami a few weeks ago and VT more recently. However, I think the Canes’ followers have driven this price up too high. <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Miami</st1lace></st1:City>’s been great as a dog (5-1 ATS in ACC, 6-2 overall) but not as a favorite (0-2 ATS in ACC, 3-4 overall). <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Miami</st1lace></st1:City> is the kind of team whose play is a reminder why you must cap favorites so differently than dogs. <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Miami</st1:City></st1lace> has shown they can hang around against tough teams and even win close games…and thus cover as a dog. They have shown they can play from behind and cover a dog spread at the end. However, being able to stretch out a lead at the end and cover as a favorite is something they haven’t shown they can do except against two early season cupcakes. The strategy and mental approach is really quite different. The Hokies share the same kind of mental toughness to hang in close games. They hung in and covered at FSU and beat Georgia Tech outright in <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Atlanta</st1lace></st1:City>. Their last game at Duke was one of those games that sometimes happen to teams in Cameron. I don’t think it’s indicative at all of this team’s mental toughness on the road. <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Miami</st1lace></st1:City>’s guards and their significant advantage rebounding are both major concerns…but VT is showing itself to be a resilient team that has beaten better teams than this.

 

[TheGeneral+]

Best of luck today.

 

[Coast2Coast]

Thank you sir. In all my years of gambling, this is the first time I've ever had a good luck mcmuffin.

 

[Coast2Coast]

Wake Forest -3 vs. Duke, 1 unit
I see a lotta love for Duke (what else is new) in their rare role as a dog and the line has been bought down to where I will now buy it. The line says Duke would be a small favorite on a neutral court. I most definitely do not agree. I've said a few times on this board that Duke was over-rated and if I'm right, this is where they are exposed. This is Duke's first road game against a Top 20 team. They've only played 2 top 20 teams...losing at home to Maryland and beating Oklahoma in NYC. Has the soft schedule prepared them for a Wake team that scores 91 ppg at home? If you compare the stats blindly, you will see Duke more than measures up. However, the preponderance of home games and much weaker road opposition skews Duke's comparative stats. Wake is the best offense, by far, that Duke will have faced all year. Wake has better inside-out balance than Duke and gets the edge in the front court (+5 rebounding margin in ACC vs. Duke's 0 RM in the ACC). Wake is a great FT shooting team. Wake's fast pace of play and better depth will perhaps cause Duke to be a bit fatigued in the 2nd half. Wake has shown they might just be the BEST team in the ACC, having beaten UNC soundly at home. And Wake has the best player in the ACC in Chris Paul. Wake has beaten Duke two straight times at home so confidence shouldn't be a problem either. Add all that up with a little line value, too......

 

[Vegasvice]

Coast. Couldn't agree with you any more on Wake Forest -3 in this spot. My power ratings have Wake as a better team on a neutral court and I thought this line would be more like 6 or 7. While Duke is finally getting healthy, which may improve their performance, and has held most of their opponents to 40% shooting, Wake will be able to get some easy transition baskets against this slowish Duke team. As long as Reddick and Ewing are not as hot from threepointsville as the Fighting Illini were last night, the Demon Deacons should be able to cover this light impost.

 

[Coast2Coast]

Adding:
South Carolina -2 vs. Arkansas -115, 1/2 unit
Will back the Gamecocks veteran team that defends the home court very well against a still growing Hogs team that hasn't shown yet they can compete on the road (0-3 ATS in SEC).

Ohio-Buffalo over 142-1/2, 1/2 unit
Another Mac Conf. Over involving Buffalo...a great over team because they play reasonably fast, shoot well, don't play great D and play a physical style that results in a lot of fouls on both ends.