Wednesday Plays

[Coast2Coast]

A full day. I'll add em as I play em....

TCU-Marquette under 130 (1 unit)
Marquette struggling on the offensive end without Diener to bail them out. Without him, they have had one good offensive effort at home against Houston, but the other two games, they shot 36 & 32%. TCU certainly not in the defensive class of those two teams -- Cincy or St. Louis, but TCU has their own issues on the offensive end. The Frogs shot just 40% away from their crib this year. Frogs also a very bad FT shooting team at 59%. I expect this to be a very close game, so the possessions could be very patient at crunch time.

 

[Coast2Coast]

Rutgers +8 vs. Notre Dame
Bought this early because I believe the price will drop. These teams played a week ago at ND and Rut shot 29% and ND 53%, but Rut lost by just ten. Most important stat from that game was Rutgers outboarding the Irish, 37-30 especially on the offensive end, 17-5. Of course Rutgers missed so many shots that night, they had a lot of chances for O boards. Rut has trouble with big teams that pound them in the paint, but that's not this ND team that lives and dies by the jump shot.

 

[Coast2Coast]

Rhode Island-Richmond under 121
Rich can run on occasion, but won't be much running here. Baron's team will run clock on nearly every possession and Rhodie shoots a pathetic 36% on the road and less than 30% from trey. Rich is at least respectable 42% shooting team, but RI knows it will have to shorten this game. And Rich coach Wainwright isn't going to have his team taking shots too quickly either. How many fans are going to be in the house in Cincinnati for this opener? The echoes you hear in the barn are clanks off the rim.

 

[Coast2Coast]

LaSalle +5, -113
Fading any Lappas-coached team is a profitable proposition. If U-Mass covers today, they would have a plus record ATS for the year. Lappas hasn't done that in several years at Mass and Nova. Why would that change now for the worst covering coach in America? LaSalle has its issues to be sure. However, this isn't a play on the Explorers as much as it is against a UMass team that was 4-7 ATS as chalk and whose largest win away from home all year was by 5 points. I love going against soft favorites like Mass...and especially when they are getting 80% of the offshore action as UMass is in this game.

 

[Coast2Coast]

The really bad teams are all playing today and not surprisingly, the public money is going opposite the ugliest dogs. Here are the games in which at least 70% of the action is on the favorite. (% of bets made at six offshores – Pinny, Bowmans, Oasis, Sportbet, WWTS and Sports Interaction). Favorites are getting the majority of the action in the other games too, but at lower %s.
<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comfficeffice" /><o></o>
<?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comffice:smarttags" /><st1:State w:st="on">South Florida (<st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Houston</st1lace></st1:City> 92%)
<st1laceName w:st="on">Weber</st1laceName> <st1laceType w:st="on">State</st1laceType> (<st1lace w:st="on"><st1:State w:st="on">Montana</st1:State></st1lace> 85%)
Idaho (UC Irvine 83%)
LaSalle (Mass 79%)
Rhode Island</st1:State> (<st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Richmond</st1lace></st1:City> 77%)
<st1lace w:st="on">Rutgers</st1lace> (Notre Dame 75%)
St. Bonnie (<st1lace w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Dayton</st1:City></st1lace> 74%)
Seton Hall (Gtown 74%)
Tulane (DePaul 72%)
Duquesne (Fordham 70%)

 

[cincy_]

C2C,

Teams will also try to pace themselves with a big lead - especially if its a scenario where they think they have to play 4 games in 4 days.

Today, I will look for big HT leads for favorites where the first half is high scoring - the favorites will try to control clock in the 2nd half, and as the public pushes the 2nd half total higher, the under gets to be very attractive.

The opposite is happening in the URI game right now - where the favorite was trailing, but it could happen in the Dayton game and the DePaul game today.

 

[Vegasvice]

Houston

C2C,

I am with the "public" on the Houston game because of the way the 2 previous games played out. Houston held South Florida to a pretty amazing 33 field goal attempts in the second game between the teams this year and 44 field goal attempts in the first game. I think that reflects a good matchup for Houston and historically, altho the "conventional wisdom" is that "its tough to beat a team three times in a row", the pointspread results for the last 9 years show that Underdog Double Revenge is a less than 50% play.

I joined you on Rutgers +8, although i am concerned about the field goal percentages which Rutgers allows. As you noted, though, it may simply be poor defending in the paint.

Good luck on your plays today

 

[RogerM]

Coast 2 coast, where do you get those #'s for %'s of bets made per game at the different sites. Thanks for any help, Roger.

 

[Coast2Coast]

Roger,
The name of the service is Sports Insights and they are a pay service. However, the basic % are available free on a slightly delayed basis through the wiseguys plays section of the Letitridesports website. I'm sorry but the owners of Rx do not allow links to other sites here, so I can't post the link. You can find it though if you look.

 

[Tulsa]

Coast, great call on the TCU/MARQ UNDER. It made it well under even after one OT!! Good job and keep it up. tulsa

 

[Coast2Coast]

yeah Vice I saw that stat....the 33 shot game was due to the fact that SF turned it over 26 times and got to the line 26 times that game. Houston is the same ole Penders kind of gambling team...they try to speed people up and cause turnovers and commit an above average number of fouls. Clearly SF didn't handle it well that game.But all that gambling has its price....they give up a lot of freebies and allow 45% fg def overall and 47% on the road. They also shoot a mere 39% on the road. I hear ya about the matchup, but as five point chalk, they look pretty soft to me. I haven't played USF yet...but I'm considering it. Just waiting to see if I might get a better price than 5.

 

[Coast2Coast]

Hey Vice,

You didn't join me on La Salle against our "buddy" Lappas? Mass led about two of the 45 minutes today and La Salle wins it outright. No surprise there. It's funny, Lappas was doing his usual madman on the sidelines act, ripping into the refs. I was listening to the La Salle announcers and they kept saying what a nice guy Lappas is in person and what a jerk he is on the sidelines. THey said "He certainly deserves his reputation as a nutcase." LOL. I think I wrote that once in a don't bet thread. I would hope for the sake of the Mass fans, that he's now officially done there. Although...if he does keep his job, I'll be back next year again, fading his sorry arse.

 

[cincy_]

Thanks for the UMass pick, C2C.


I was planning on passing - took LaSalle just to tail you and was thinking about taking them on the ML too, but just didn't have the balls (I know, I know - gutless)

 

[Coast2Coast]

Gtown-Seton Hall under 121-1/2
Looks like this is as good of a price as we're gonna get. Was surprised the over players liked this one so much, but I'll take the little extra value. Another grinder with two teams that can grind with the best of em.

 

[beachbum]

Da Bulls..........

So.Florida/Houston........Well Mr. Penders is a old favorite as far as fading a coach,he sucks IMO and I will continue to fad him when the right oppurtunities
occur and tonight is perfect.Penders teams are known for playing no "D" what-so-ever,he does love the up-tempo style and full court pressure.The Cougars have already beaten Da Bulls twice this season by 12 pts at So. Florida and 18 pts at home......one game the Bulls shot really bad and the other they committed to many turnovers.
Now Tommy's team ended their season losing their last two games at Marquette without Diener and at home vs UAB,not a good way to enter the Conf USA tourney,while So. Florida finished the season upseting Charlotte at home by 12-points!I'm going to put my money on the team that plays "D" tonight and I'm getting 5-points on top of it......Look at USF in their last 6-games holding their opponets to 41% shooting are less and that was against @Louisville,@Houston,East Carolina,@DePaul,@TCU and Charlotte!Houston does not play an iota of D and I am looking for a nice spot of Revenge here tonight!

Da Bulls+5

 

[Coast2Coast]

South Florida +5 vs. Houston
I love the confidence there Bum! Nice to see you here. I hate to go against Vice, but you know how I share your views about Penders. Been sitting here today hoping for a better price, but the line is ticking to 4.5 so will take the five now. Houston another soft favorite with a lot of public support. I'll fade just about any favorite in a conf. tourney that shoots only 39% on the road and defends at a below average 45%. Cougars have a below average O, below average D and a ramblin, gamblin kind of coach. Hope USF has been working on their ball handling and breaking the pressure. Can't have another game of 20+ TOs. That will prolly be the key to this play.

 

[Coast2Coast]

Irvine-Idaho under 126-1/2
Neither of these teams will impress you with their offense, though Irvine has played better lately. That is probably one reason bettors have bet this total up a full 4.5 points today from the 122 opening number. Time to step in and fade the move.

 

[beachbum]

Scammers....

Hey Coaster,I just got an update on the scammers and they are at 14-2 on Houston+5 tonight.....seems odd to see that many of them on Houston and yet the line is dropping?Love going against the majority of those scammers!

 

[beachbum]

Hall 2ndhalf

Hall+2.5 second half........up 28-27

 

[Coast2Coast]

I think i've been looking at my puter and at hoops too much today. I just looked at my pending plays and I mistakenly bet the OVER in the Irvine game when I meant to bet the UNDER. Maybe I can buy out of it at halftime or just drink so heavily the rest of the night that I don't care I just pissed away a nickel with a stupid mistake.

:drink: