WEDNESDAY BET O THE DAY

[OccamsRazor]

RECORD YTD 48-30 (.615)
SIDES 33-20 (.622)
TOTALS 15-10 (.600)

On Monday, Utah brought home the cash here.

Going with a value play today as a Sub.500 team with a worse than average defense is laying 10 points. Defense covers the spread, no matter what sport you're Capping. Sub.500 teams laying double digits?? Rare.

Linemaker has had to overvalue Cleveland due to public's infatuation with James and Atlanta's backtoback position tonight. Atlanta will be competitive tonight coming off a confidence infusing win over the Lakers. Players are aware of the line and being 10 point dogs to the lowly Cavaliers will rile Atlanta.

Atlanta's last 10 on the road have been against TOP caliber home teams(5-5 ATS as a road dog).Only exception was Boston and Atlanta beat them straight up in Boston.

ATLANTA+10

 

[kayaman]

Thanks. Laid off both Miami and Golden St. last night. Good call. I have a question. What's your take on the talk about Cleveland being a playoff caliber team?

 

[OccamsRazor]

Its all about perceptions Kaya, Cleveland is one loss from a 39% win rate. Clippers and Golden State have better records. Do they look like a playoff team now, you tell me.

Cleveland beat a tired an uninterested San Antonio team about a week ago and the bandwagon tailgate flew open for the public and media to get on board. Today they find themselves being 10 point favorites. Perceptions. Media and public don't want to face the fact that Cleveland just lost to Chicago! Everybody loves a winner and the San Antonio win is all they see.

 

[kayaman]

True. I like what your saying. However, I get the feeling that Cleveland plays well at home but suck on the road. Definetly not playoff caliber. Am I wrong by saying that are good at home?

Also, I was looking at the Lakers over. As an away fav Lakers are 16-7 O/U and Houston (while not playing the role often) are 2-0 home dogs O/U. Did you see anything about this?

Appreciate your input.

 

[OccamsRazor]

Kaya: Again perceptions, Cleveland is 14-12 at Home ATS and are winning their games by 3 points. I would'nt say they were good, a little tiny bit better than average is more like it.

Don't have time to look at Laker/Houston can't give you an informed opinion have to go to work. I'm the " Night manager" for a stable of young girls and I have to make sure that they bring home the cash.



Just kidding. Good Luck

 

[kayaman]

right, right. work it, dogg!

 

[OccamsRazor]

Well this game got ugly for us here at the end of the 3rd.

Lets chalk this up as a loss. (Reverse Jinx). Back at em tomorrow.

 

[jwblue]

The line was Atlanta +40 right?

Damn. Thanks for the hard work OR.


IS

 

[SweeptheBoard]

I get the shaft on my 6th total in 8 days as jason terry hits a meaningless 3 w/ 8 secs left to send the game over the total

last nite he cant make 2 free throws to keep the game on an even # and possible OT

unreal

 

[OccamsRazor]

It only got worse. When I made this bet, Atlanta's 40 point+ loss to the Lakers flashed into my mind and I said naw this is Cleveland. Close to 40 tonight.

Feel for those that had the UNDER 191.5 Terry made a last second 3pointer to put it at 192. At least my demise was quick in the first.

 

[OccamsRazor]

I feel your pain Sweep.

 

[SweeptheBoard]

thx - i'll be ready 4 your comeback tomorrow

 

[kayaman]

Occam, thanks for the play. Even though it lost it don't matter cause we always got tomorrow (unless I die in my sleep)

 

[GLJJNOVA]

Razor......I stayed off this one, bad team phobia. Sure you'll bounce back with a winner. I think your next side will be golden. Your home cooking dishes are great.

Best Wishes
Gary

 

[DonMarco]

Occam

Sorry I have to say this now, when it is too late. I didnt see your post earlier today.

Never, ever, bet on a road team coming of a home dog win the day before. Especially if there opponent is coming of an upset loss. I have the numbers to support this theory but cant post it right now.

Trust me, thats a very, very, losing proposition over the years.

The linemakers know that, the public doesn't.

No wonder why the Cavs were laying 10 here.

Good luck buddy.

 

[hansenbros.]

if you can, post some of that stuff -- that's GOOD info!

gl

 

[OccamsRazor]

Don Marco thanks for the info. It makes sense from an emotional view point and emotions are the X factor in Capping. Good to see you back don't be a stranger.

 

[Antonioli]

Damn, good ta see ya don~

Antolini

 

[DonMarco]

hansen

I'm away from home and cant access my database right now. When I get some time I will post it. However, if you have time for it, you can search my posts in the Capping Zone, I remember posting some of this system's numbers there on someones demand last year. Overall, this system hits around 75% su and 50% ats, but going into details, (revenge, conference, opp of upset loss, etc), it can go as high as 85% su and 80% ats depending on the situation. There are actually some perfect situations issued from this system in last 10 years, like one that is 34-0 su/ats. I just cant post exact overall numbers w/o my database. By the way, I do remember that the Hawks are one of the league's worst teams on the road following a home dog win over the past few years. Bulls are another bad team in that situation.

Occam, Yes it makes a lot of sense. The energy that these teams spend in there wins as home dogs is amazing. And not only that, but the public tends to have a short memory. When they see an upset like that one, and see the same team playing the next day, they are all over it, especially if getting a big number like Atlanta did last night. There are some very similar situations in college hoops as well that will hit around 66% ats year after year.
I'm doing NBA writeups for some sources every single day in last two years and for this game I had a special note "stay away from atlanta" Best of luck today buddy.


Antolini

whats up buddy ? I'm around, just not posting a whole lot. How's the life treating you ?

 

[Antonioli]

but the public tends to have a short memory.

it's very true.