At the Gate - Wednesday
By Mike Dempsey
We will be at the halfway point of the 40-day Saratoga meeting on Sunday and we are starting to see the trainer and jockey standings shake out about as I expected.
Trainer Chad Brown, who finished second to Todd Pletcher the last two summers at the Spa got off to a very slow start at the meeting, but has picked things up and now has seven winners from 35 starters, now hitting at a 20% clip.
Brown is tied with Graham Motion for second behind Pletcher, who has won 15 races from his 51 starters, with 10 seconds and six thirds. He leads in purse earnings with $1,232,259.
David Jacobson got off to a slow start, but picked up winner on Monday’s card and now has two winners from his 28 starters. Rudy Rodriguez had another winner on Monday with first timer Condo Commando ($26.20) and now has four winners from 33 starters.
Chilly barns include Dominic Schettino (0 for 19), Mark Hennig (1 for 19), Steve Asmussen (1 for 18), and Kiaran McLaughin (1 for 14).
Wesley Ward has won with 3 of 21 starters, but I discovered an interesting statistic. Ward has hit with just one of his last 39 juveniles at the Spa dating back a couple of years.
Javier Castellano has won 22 races and leads all jockeys, five ahead of John Velazquez. Irad Ortiz Jr. leads in purse earnings with $1,757,433 and is third in wins with 15, one ahead of his brother Jose.
Taylor Rice is really struggling, having won just one race from her 44 mounts, while Julian Leparoux has been chilly as well, with just two winners from 45 mounts. Corey Lanerie has been riding for the cold Jacobson barn and has won just three races from his 47 mounts.
Among the jockeys without a win at the meeting are Dylan Davis (0 for 20), and Edgar Prado (0 for 17).
Wednesday’s feature is a good one, the $100,000 John’s Call at 1 5/8 miles on the turf. Ten entered but Alpha is main track only and Micromanage will likely scratch to go in tomorrow’s $100,000 Birdstone, so we likely will have a field of eight go to the gate.
The Pletcher trained Winning Cause is going to be lower than his 2-1 morning line and is coming off a fourth in the United Nations (G1). Tricky Hat tossed in a clunker last out in the Monmouth (G2) but I am expecting a better effort out of him this afternoon.
To purchase my full card report for Saratoga for Wednesday click here.
Here is today’s second race (the opener is a steeplechase race) from Saratoga to get the day off to a good start:
SAR Race 2 Md $20,000 (1:00 ET)
4 Boss Daddy 12-1
7 Yankee Dime 5-1
5 Moonluck 3-5
8 Hey Kid 10-1
Analysis: Boss Daddy makes his debut for the Carroll barn that is 12% winners with first timers. The colt is by Distorted Humor (16% winners with debut runners) out of the graded stakes winner Hello Lucky ($315,565) who has dropped a couple of foals to race but no winners to date. The colt has a couple of good-looking local drills including a gate drill. The colt debuts with lasix and this looks like a good spot here tagged for $20,000.
Yankee Dime takes another drop in class after coming off the bench for $75,000 last out at Belmont Park and weakened to finish third. The gelding battled for the early lead and weakened in the stretch over a racing strip that was not kind to inside speed that day. He ran in a couple of tough maiden races last year including running into Cairo Prince in his second career start. He owns the edge in early and mid pace numbers and will be the one to catch.
Moonluck ran well in a couple of seconds last year. He ran second to Bakken last October at Belmont Park, that foe ran second in the True North Handicap (G2) in his most recent outing. The 3-5 morning line sure looks short while the jam in for $20,000 does not look good either. His recent works did not impress at least one morning clocker.
Wagering
WIN: #4 to win at 5-1 or better.
EX: 4,7 / 4,5,7,8
TRI: 4,7 / 4,5,7,8 / 2,4,5,7,8
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Saratoga:
SAR Race 9 The John's Call (4:49 ET)
1 Tricky Hat 5-1
8 Winning Cause 2-1
10 Holiday Star 6-1
7 Manchurian High 20-1
Analysis: Tricky Hat tossed in a real bad one last out in the Monmouth (G2), getting outrun in the early going and never picking his feet up in a 14th place finish at 7-1. Four runners have come out of that race to win next out including runner up Hangover Kid, who won the Bowling Green (G2) on July 12 at Belmont Park and sixth place finisher Finnegan's Lake, who won the Arlington Handicap (G3) in his next outing on July 12.
Last fall our top pick won the Laurel Turf Cup at 1 1/2 miles, and then was a decent third in the Sycamore (G3) which was off the turf and contested on poly. His return race this spring was solid against allowance foes where he was beaten a neck by Boisterous off a 5 1/2 month layoff. That runner is a Grade 1 winner that has earned $1.4 million. Next up in the Elkhorn (G2) he did not show much punch in the stretch in a fifth place finish but was only beaten 4 3/4 lengths. The runner up in that race was War Dancer who came back to win the Louisville Handicap (G3) and then ran a close up third in the Arlington Handicap.
Shug brings him back here off a two month freshening and he gets some class relief facing non-winners of a graded stake in 2014. He is reunited with Rosie and figures to bounce back with a better effort.
Winning Cause also gets some class relief after a decent effort in a fourth in the United Nations (G1) at Monmouth Park. The colt came with a mild late run splitting rivals, beaten 1 1/4 lengths in the 1 3/8 miles race. His lone career win on grass was over the Spa turf in the restricted Sir Cat last summer going a mile.
The extra ground is a question mark but he has a decent enough pedigree, by Giant's Causeway out of a Kingmambo mare. He gets Johnny V. back who has been on board this guy a few timer and is a logical player here for the hot Pletcher barn, but the price may end up on the light side.
Holiday Star made a good late run to finish third in the Cape Henelopen last out at Delaware Park going 1 1/2 miles. The gelding is two for eight on turf in his career, the wins coming in Florida where he broke his maiden at Tampa Bay Downs and beat Alw-1 foes at Gulfstream Park.
He is getting a few pounds from our top two picks and has strong connections in his corner with Graham Motion who is having a strong meeting (7 for 27) with five of his wins coming on the turf. The gelding appears to be heading in the right direction and has a decent enough pedigree to be able to handle the extra ground. He is by Harlan's Holiday out of a Deputy Minster mare.
Wagering
WIN: #1 to win at 4-1 or better.
EX: 1,8 / 1,7,8,10
TRI: 1,8 / 1,7,8,10 / 1,3,7,8,10
Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
Saratoga
R1: #4 Lillehammer 12-1
R1: #7 Albany Road 10-1
R2: #4 Boss Daddy 12-1
R2: #8 Hey Kid 10-1
R9: #7 Manchurian High 20-1
R10: #19 Full Pads 8-1
Good luck today!
w-thumbs!^
