Wednesday 8/5/15 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

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[superbeets]

Champions League TODAY 17:30

FK Qarabag

v

Celtic

	HOME	DRAW	AWAY
BTEU		2	9/4	11/8	More markets

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RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT FK QARABAG	RECENT FORM
HWALHWHDAWAL​ Most recent​	Unknown	ADHWHWAWHWHW​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: Qarabag have lost only one of their last 18 home matches

EXPERT VERDICT: Celtic are getting hot under the collar over a heat-baked pitch in Baku, which may not be up to scratch. It’s been blistering in the Azerbaijan capital – temperatures at kick-off are forecast to be in the mid-30s – so it’s an evening for staying cool, especially with only a 1-0 lead to defend.

RECOMMENDATION: Draw
1

 

[superbeets]

Europa League Th 6Aug 19:00

Vitesse Arn.

v

Southampton

	HOME	DRAW	AWAY
BT2		2	5/2	5/4	More markets

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RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT VITESSE ARN.	RECENT FORM
HDAWHDADHWAL​ Most recent​	Unknown	HDALALHWALHW​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: Vitesse have lost just once in their last 20 home matches

EXPERT VERDICT: Southamptoncarried on where they left off last season with a fine 3-0 win in the first leg. Despite a summer of more movements, Ronald Koeman seems to have them match-ready and they should have few problems qualifying. However, Saints have not won in their last seven away matches so will be content to take the sting out of the tie.

RECOMMENDATION: Draw
1

 

[superbeets]

French Division 1 Sa 8Aug 20:00

Marseille

v

Caen

	HOME	DRAW	AWAY
BTX		8/15	11/4	6	More markets

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RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT MARSEILLE	RECENT FORM
ALHLAWHWAWHW​ Most recent​	2 - 3 1 - 1 1 - 2 2 - 1	ALHLADHWADHW​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: Caen won 12 league games last season – nine after the winter break

EXPERT VERDICT: Marseille are expected to kick off their Ligue 1 campaign with a straightforward home win but several important players left the club this summer and opponents Caen are no pushovers. They won 3-2 at Marseille last term, drawing 2-2 at PSG and Monaco, and they may be able to frustrate their new-look hosts early on.

RECOMMENDATION: Draw-Marseille double result
1

 

[superbeets]

Swiss Super League Su 9Aug 15:00

Young Boys

v

Thun

	HOME	DRAW	AWAY
		4/6	14/5	4	More markets

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RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT YOUNG BOYS	RECENT FORM
ALHWADHDHLAD​ Most recent​	4 - 0 1 - 1 2 - 1 3 - 2	ADHLHWAWHDHL​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: Young Boys have lost only one of their last 12 home league matches

EXPERT VERDICT: Young Boys have started the Swiss league with three 1-1 draws – they drew three of their first four games last season too – but they can take maximum points against a Thun side struggling to keep clean sheets. They conceded nine goals in their last four matches in 2014-15 and lost 5-3 at home to Grasshoppers last time out.

RECOMMENDATION: Young Boys
2

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MLB

Cubs @ Pirates
Haren was 0-2, 4.50 in his last three starts for Miami; seven of his last 10 starts stayed under the total. .

Locke is 1-2, 5.64 in his last four starts; under is 4-1-1 in his last six.

Cubs won five of their last seven games with Pittsburgh; Chicago won its last six games overall (under 5-0-1). Pirates won five of last eight (under 3-0-1 in last four games).

Dodgers @ Phillies
Anderson is 0-2, 4.98 in his last four starts; under is 3-1-1 in his last five.

Harang is 1-6, 7.94 in his last seven starts (over 5-2).

Phillies are 13-3 since All-Star break; over is 3-1-2 in his last six. Dodgers won four of last six games with the Phillies; under is 5-2-1 in last eight. LA won four of its last five games; over is 3-1-1 in their last five.

Diamondbacks @ Nationals
de la Rosa is 2-0, 2.14 in his last three starts; four of his last six went over.

Gonzalez is 4-0, 2.02 in his last six starts.

Washington is 4-8 in last 12 games overall; six of last nine stayed under the total- they won eight of last ten games with Arizona- six of last nine in series went over. D'backs lost six of their last nine games (under 6-3).

Giants @ Braves
Bumgarner is 3-1, 3.65 in his last four starts; under is 5-3-1 in his last nine.

Perez is 1-1, 9.00 in his last three starts; six of his last nine went over.

Giants lost three of last four games with Atlanta; six of last seven went over the total. SF won 15 of last 20 games; under is 5-3-2 in their last ten. Braves lost seven of last nine games (over 4-0-1 in last five).

Mets @ Marlins
Harvey is 2-2, 3.48 in his last five starts; under is 5-3 in his last eight.

Phelps is 0-3, 3.57 in his last four starts (under 3-1); Marlins scored total of five runs in those four games.

Mets won eight of last ten games; four of their last seven went over- they lost four of last seven with Miami- four of last six went over. Marlins lost nine of last 11 games (under 10-5 in last 15 games).

Cardinals @ Reds
Cardinals are 16-3 when Martinez starts; he is 3-1, 2.19 in his last six starts. Under is 8-1-1 in his last ten starts.

Holmberg allowed two runs in six IP (100 PT) in his first '15 start.

St Louis won five of last eight games with Cincinnati; last six series games stayed under. Cardinals won three of last five games; nine of their last 11 stayed under. Reds won five of last seven games; under is 6-1-1 in last eight.

Padres @ Brewers
Kennedy is 2-0, 2.37 in his last three starts; eight of his last nine went under.

Jungmann is 3-2, 2.02 in his last five starts (under 4-1).

Brewers lost 11 of last 14 games; under is 9-1-2 in last 12. Milwaukee is 5-7 in its last 12 games with San Diego (under 9-3). Padres won five of their last seven games (over 6-1).

American League
Royals @ Tigers
Cueto is 1-0, 2.50 in his last three starts; three of his last four went over.

Boyd was 0-2, 14.85 in his two starts for Toronto (over 1-1).

Royals are 6-3 in last eight games with Detroit; seven of last 10 series games stayed under. KC lost four of its last six games overall. Tigers are 3-6 in last nine games overall- they fired their longtime GM this week.

Twins @ Blue Jays
Duffey is making first MLB start; he is 6-8, 2.66 in 21 AAA starts this year. .

Hutchison is 1-1, 8.39 in his last five starts (over 4-1).

Minnesota won six of last ten games with Toronto; three of last four stayed under Twins lost eight of last ten games overall, with last five staying under. Blue Jays won six of last seven games; their last three stayed under.

Red Sox @ Bronx
Wright is 1-3, 6.11 in his last five starts (over 4-1).

Severino is making MLB debut; he was 7-0, 1.91 in 11 AAA starts.

Boston lost seven of its last eight games with Bronx; four of last seven in series stayed under the total. Red Sox won three of last five games; eight of their last nine went over. Bronx won eight of its last nine home games.

Astros @ Rangers
Kazmir hasn't allowed a run in his first two Houston starts (1-0, 14.2 IP); he is 2-0, 0.53 in his last five starts-- six of his last seven stayed under.

Martinez is 1-4, 7.68 in his last six starts (over is 3-1-1 in his last five).

Houston lost six of last eight games with Texas; four of last six went over the total. Astros won five of last eight games (over 5-3). Rangers won six of last seven games; over is 6-4-1 in their last eleven.

Rays @ White Sox
Ramirez is 0-1, 5.00 in his last three starts; three of his last four went under.

Rodon is 1-3, 6.93 in his last five starts; four of his last six went over.

Rays won six of last seven games with Chicago; five of last six went over the total. Tampa Bay won its last three games, scoring 20 runs; five of their last six on road went over. White Sox lost five of last six games; 10 of their last 11 games went over.

Orioles @ A's
Chen is 1-2, 4.80 in his last five starts; under is 8-1-1 in his last ten.

Graveman is 0-3, 7.11 in his last four starts; four of his last five stayed under.

Baltimore won eight of last 11 games; under is 5-2-1 in their last eight road games. A's lost eight of last 12 games; nine of those twelve games stayed under. Orioles lost four of last six games with Oakland; nine of last 12 in series went over the total.

Indians @ Angels
Salazar is 2-2, 2.15 in his last four starts (under 3-1).

Santiago is 0-1, 8.10 in his last two starts; his last five all went over.

Angels lost ten of last 12 games; seven of last ten went over-- they're 6-3 in last nine games with Indians (under 7-5 in last 12). Indians lost nine of last 13 games, with five of last six staying under.

Interleague
Mariners @ Rockies
Walker is 1-1, 6.82 in his last five starts (over 4-1).

Rusin is 0-2, 6.75 in his last five starts; over is 5-3-1 in his last nine.

Rockies are 4-8 in last 12 games; over is 6-1-1 in their last eight. Colorado lost its last four games with Seattle; over is 3-0-1 in last four series games. Seattle won its last three games, scoring 22 runs-- over is 6-3-1 in their last ten.

Win-loss records this year for team with this starting pitcher:
Chi-Pitt-- Haren (10-11 w/Mia); Locke 11-9
LA-Phil-- Anderson 10-10; Harang 6-12 (1-9 last 10)
Az-Wsh-- de la Rosa 12-9; Gonzalez 12-7
SF-Atl-- Bumgarner 12-9; Perez 5-4
NY-Mia-- Harvey 12-8; Phelps 5-12 (0-5 last 5)
StL-Cin-- Martinez 16-3; Holmberg 1-0
SD-Mil-- Kennedy 9-10; Jungmann 6-4

KC-Det-- Cueto (11-9/0-1); Boyd 0-2
Min-Tor-- Duffey 0-0; Hutchison 14-7
Bos-NY-- Wright 2-5; Severino 0-0
Hst-Tex-- Kazmir (10-10/2-0); Martinez 10-9 (2-8 last 10)
TB-Chi-- Ramirez 11-5; Rodon 8-6
Balt-A's-- Chen 12-8; Graveman 8-9 (0-4 last 4)
Clev-LAA-- Salazar 12-7; Santiago 11-9

Sea-Col-- Walker 12-9; Rusin 2-8

Times this starting pitcher allowed a run in first inning:
Chi-Pitt-- Haren 2-21; Locke 4-20
LA-Phil-- Anderson 8-20 (7 of last 9); Harang 6-18
Az-Wsh-- de la Rosa 5-21; Gonzalez 2-19
SF-Atl-- Bumgarner 5-21; Perez 4-9
NY-Mia-- Harvey 6-20; Phelps 6-17
StL-Cin-- Martinez 3-19; Holmberg 0-1
SD-Mil-- Kennedy 7-19; Jungmann 1-10

KC-Det-- Cueto 5-20; Boyd 1-2
Min-Tor-- Duffey 0-0; Hutchison 9-21 (5 of last 7)
Bos-NY-- Wright 3-7; Severino 0-0
Hst-Tex-- Kazmir 2-20; Martinez 6-19 (4 of last 5)
TB-Chi-- Ramirez 4-16; Rodon 5-14
Balt-A's-- Chen 6-20; Graveman 5-17
Clev-LAA-- Salazar 6-19; Santiago 6-20

Sea-Col-- Walker 5-21; Rusin 4-10

Umpires
Chi-Pitt-- Under is 6-2-1 in last nine Randazzo games.
Az-Wash-- Over is 8-3-1 in last twelve Morales games.
LA-Phil-- Seven of last nine Porter games went over.
SF-Atl-- Underdogs are 10-11 (+$240) in Scott games this year.
StL-Cin-- Six of last eight May games stayed under.
NY-Mia-- Underdogs won three of last five BWelke games.
SD-Mil-- Five of last seven Carapazza games went over.

Min-Tor-- Three of last four Woodring games went over.
KC-Det-- Under is 9-5 in last fourteen Foster games.
Hst-Tex-- Last three Reynolds games went over total.
TB-Chi-- Under is 11-6 in last seventeen Hudson games.
Balt-A's-- Under is 7-1-1 in last nine Bellino games.
Bos-NY-- Favorites won last five Danley games; three of last four stayed under the total.
Cle-LA-- Over is 4-1-1 in last six Hoberg games.

Sea-Col-- Road team won last three Pattillo games.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

WNBA Betting Recap - 7/27-8/2
By Joe Williams

League Betting Notes (from Monday, July 27 through Sunday, Aug. 2)

-- Favorites went 16-1 straight up
-- Favorites went 9-8 against the spread (ATS)
-- Home teams posted a 10-7 SU record
-- Road teams posted a 9-8 ATS record
-- The 'over' went 10-7

Team Betting Notes

-- Los Angeles (5-14) has won back-to-back games for the second straight time this season, and they're 2-0 SU/ATS in their past two road outings. Overall the Sparks have covered three straight, and four of the past five while the 'over' has hit in three in a row.

-- Indiana (11-8) has won three straight games after dumping Connecticut (9-9). The Fever have covered three in a row after an 0-3-1 ATS run. Indiana plays at Chicago (12-8) Tuesday. The Fever is 0-3 SU/ATS against the Sky this season.

-- The 'under' hit for the Sky Sunday, but the 'over' has been the play going 13-8, including 2-1 against the Fever, including their home game June 5 against Indiana.

-- New York (13-6) got back on track Sunday afternoon with a win over Seattle (5-16). The Liberty has won six of their past seven, but they have failed to cover three of the past four.

-- After a pre-All-Star break hiccup, Phoenix (12-7) has won three straight, including each of their past two on the road. The Mercury failed to cover for the sixth time in the past seven outings heading into their game Tuesday against Tulsa (10-11). They're 2-0 SU/ATS against the Shock this season.

-- The Shock are in quite the tailspin, losers of six in a row, and they have posted an 0-5-1 ATS mark during the stretch after covering their first eight.

-- San Antonio (6-14) dropped a second straight Sunday, and they have failed to cover in two in a row after a four-game cover streak. The Stars have been up and down all season, and they travel to Connecticut Tuesday.

-- Washington (11-7) lost Sunday in Chicago for the first time in six games, but they have covered in a season-high six straight. They host the Stars Wednesday, a team they rolled 88-53 in San Antonio July 31.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

At the Gate - Wednesday
By Mike Dempsey

The Pick 6 at Saratoga was not hit on Sunday or Monday, leaving us a carryover of $206,133 going into Wednesday’s 10-race card. The Pick 6 starts with the fifth race with a post time of 3:12 ET.

A couple of bombs back to back on Monday, Goodtolook ($70.50) and Den’s Legacy ($45.20) assured that there would be a nice sized pot moving forward.

The sequence is anything but easy, starting with a $40,000 non-winners of two on turf that drew a full field of 12. Eighty Three is the 5-2 morning line favorite for trainer Wesley Ward, who is off to a slow start at the meet at 1 for 21.

The sixth race is a $50,000 claimer at a mile on turf with 10 going to the post. The Mike Maker trained Honor the Kitten is the 7-2 morning line favorite. The five-year-old drops out of stakes company. Maker had a solid meeting here last summer but is just 2 for 18 here through Monday.

The seventh race is a maiden special weight affair with a field of 10 fillies and mares going six furlongs on the main track. It is another race that we may have to go deep in. There are first timers sent out by Chad Brown, Maker and Kiaran McLaughlin.

The second half of the Pick 6 sequence is an optional claimer on turf with nine going to the post. Christophe Clement sends out Crisolles to her U.S. debut and first start since last October.

The ninth race is the feature, the $100,00 Shine Again which includes a pair of runners that participated in last fall’s Breeders’ Cup.

Stonetastic ran fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (G1) while Unbridled Forever makes her first start since running fifth in the Distaff (G1).

If we are alive going into the final leg we will have to solve a $16,000 non-winners of two claimer with a field of 12. David Jacobson sends out Who’s Z Daddy (3-1) who ran close up fourth at this level here on July 24.

The pool could grow to a $1 million or more, but it is a very tough sequence.


Here is today’s second race (the opener is a jump race) from Saratoga to get the day off to a good start:

SAR Race 2 Clm $12,500 (1:33 ET)
5 Petrocelli 10-1
1 Bambisfrostyracer / 1a Wealth to Me 6-5
4 Playing Joke 6-1
8 Grandpa Len 6-1

Analysis: Petrocelli dueled for the early lead and finished gamely in a runner up finish last out against $16,000 foes. He drops a notch here as he makes his first start for the DiPrima barn that is showing a 1 for 13 mark first off the claim. The barn is capable and took this guy off a low % outfit. Rosario takes the call and the 10-1 morning line looks generous. He has some early zip but will have to outrun his sprint oriented pedigree to get nine furlongs.

Wealth to Me takes a big plunge here after taking on Alw-3 optional claimers last out where he checked in a decent third. The barn is not afraid to jam them in where they can win but the prices are often too short. The barn is off to a slow start at the meeting, winning with just 2 of 24 starters.

Wagering
WIN: #5 to win at 9-2 or better.
EX: 1,5 / 1,4,5,8
TRI: 1,5 / 1,4,5,8 / 1,3,4,5,8

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Saratoga:

SAR Race 9 The Shine Again (5:26 ET)
3 Stonetastic 5-2
9 You Bought Her 8-1
6 Wavell Avenue 4-1
5 Unbridled Forever 5-1

Analysis: Stonetastic makes her first start since fading to finish seventh in the La Brea (G1) at Santa Anita last December. The filly won two of six starts last year and her career best effort came over the Spa main track here last summer where she won the Prioress (G2) in gate to wire fashion, drawing away to win by 8 1/2 lengths. Four fillies she beat that day came back to win their next starts. She has run well fresh, beating Alw-1 optional claimers last July off a 6 1/2 month layoff. The Breen barn is 12% winners with runners coming back off a +180 day layoff. She popped three bullet works last month and looks ready to go off the bench.

You Bought Her came with a five wide bid and finished up well for the runner up spot last out at Prairie Meadows in a runner up finish in the Saylorville. The mare did not enjoy her time in Louisville, not a threat in a seventh place finish in the Humana Distaff (G1) and a sixth in the Winning Colors (G3). Her two previous starts to that were solid, a win in the Minaret at Tampa Bay Downs and a neck loss in the Inside Information (G2) at Gulfstream Park. Only our fourth choice in here earned a higher last out speed fig and her 8-1 morning line looks more than fair.

Wavell Avenue is back on dirt after a rough trip at Woodbine in the Canadian bred Zadradcarta over yielding turf. The filly was off a slow and outrun in the early going, was blocked in traffic turning for home and finished up with some interest when clear for third. She was a sharp winner two back at Belmont Park on the main track against Alw-2 optional claimers, winning by six lengths. The Chad Brown barn is 22% winners moving runners from turf to dirt.

Wagering
WIN: #3 to win at 5-2 or better.
EX: 3,9 / 3,5,6,9
TRI: 3,9 / 3,5,6,9 / 2,3,5,6,9

Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Saratoga
R2: #5 Petrocelli 10-1
R3: #1 Got Winged 10-1
R4: #2 Super Psyche 8-1
R5: #6 One Eyed Ray 10-1
R6: #11 Upgrade 8-1
R7: #3 Vacation Spot 12-1
R8: #2 Cash Control 15-1
R9: #9 You Bought Her 8-1
R10: #7 David Rocks 8-1

Good luck today!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Northfield Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 10 - Post: 9:00 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 72 - Purse:$3000 - NON WINNERS $200 PER START IN 2015. NO. 9 STARTS FROM 2ND TIER NORTHFIELD TRAINER CHANGES HN 4 J.POLLOCK.JR TO P.KARCHER HN 6 T.NOSTADT TO B.LONEY


CONSORTIUM CHOICES


Chatsworth Consortium

# 2 BOXCAR 7/2


# 4 TOBINS FORTUNE 4/1


# 6 WELCOME WAGON 2/1


Really keen on the likelihood of BOXCAR taking down the winner's share for this race. If performance in the most recent affair is representative, this solid standardbred will have a very good shot in this contest. High last race TrackMaster Speed Rating. Take a good look at making this horse your win wager based on excellent win percent alone. Drawing the 2 post at this track has lead to an above average win statistic. TOBINS FORTUNE - Has very good speed ratings and clearly has to be considered for a bet here. Has a substantial shot for this one, if he can race to his back class. WELCOME WAGON - Many selectors know speed is is key. This race horse has credentials with a 78 avg stat. With a 83 avg class stat, this nice horse has one of the most competitive class advantages in the group of animals.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Scioto Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 1 - Post: 6:30 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 62 - Purse:$44500 - OHIO STATE FAIR STATE FAIR MANAGERS PACE 2 YEAR OLD FILLIES K.KAUFFMAN LISTED 3-7


CONSORTIUM CHOICES


Chatsworth Consortium

# 8 HOORAY FOR HAZEL 4/1


# 6 NPR NINE 9/5


# 4 BEAUTEOUS GIRL 8/1


HOORAY FOR HAZEL is the top wager in this race. Most likely think these two have some sort of connection going. Page in the sulky means a formidable chance to get the victory. Always solid driver-conditioner partnership. 25 percent winners when they team up to do work. This race may be controlled by this filly. A single look at the avgerage speed fig will prove that. NPR NINE - Quite possibly think these two have a good thing going. Potter sending the horse out means a great chance to get the ultimate prize. Going to post competently, achieved a very promising speed fig in her most recent contest (64). BEAUTEOUS GIRL - Drawing the 4 post at this track has lead to a well above average win percent.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Del Mar

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 2 - Claiming - 7.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $22000 Class Rating: 95

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF TWO RACES SINCE MAY 5 ALLOWED 3 LBS. A RACE SINCE THEN ALLOWED 5 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000, IF FOR $9,000, ALLOWED 2 LBS.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 5 MEMPHIS 3/1


# 8 DEEP PLAY 6/1


# 1 MAGNA WARRIOR 10/1


My selection for this race is MEMPHIS. His 93 average has this gelding with among the best speed figures for this race. Jockey's recent ROI figures make this gelding a strong wager. Ran a strong last race. DEEP PLAY - With better than average trips to the winner's circle, Valdez will almost certainly have this gelding in excellent position to win the contest. Valdez will most likely be able to get this gelding to break out early in this contest. MAGNA WARRIOR - Recently Saavedra has provided investors with a very good winning percentage with horses racing in dirt sprint races. With a nice Equibase class rating average of 100, has one of the most favorable class advantages in this group of animals.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Louisiana Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 1 - Claiming - 8.3f on the Dirt. Purse: $7000 Class Rating: 80

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE FEBRUARY 5. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000


RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 7 CORINTHIANS SECRET 9/5


# 2 WAKKIANO 9/2


# 5 ZARKING 3/1


My pick here is CORINTHIANS SECRET. Could best this group based on the speed fig - 80 - of his last race. Has to be carefully examined versus this group of horses in this race displaying solid figures recently and an average speed rating of 69 under similar conditions. Has ran admirably in dirt route races. WAKKIANO - Is worth taking a close look at and may be a bet - strong Speed Figures (72 average) at today's distance and surface recently. With Simington controlling the reins on him, this gelding will most likely be able to break out early for this event. ZARKING - Has a very solid shot in this event if you like back class. He looks strong in this spot and I expect will be on the front end or close at the halfway point.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Presque Isle Downs - Race #6 - Post: 7:30pm - Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $13,000 Class Rating: 71

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#2 TRICOLETTE (ML=6/1)
#4 ELLE'S PEGASUS (ML=3/1)


TRICOLETTE - The rider and trainer combination have a profitable ROI when they combine forces. Was in a $7,500 Claiming race at Presque Isle Downs last race out. That contest had an Equibase class figure of 76 and she is moving down in this race. A certain win candidate. ELLE'S PEGASUS - I like to bet on this handicapping theory, a pony coming back off a solid outing within the last month.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 HIDDEN COVE (ML=5/2), #5 KRIS CROSS STREET (ML=7/2), #6 OUR SWEET LEGACY (ML=4/1),

HIDDEN COVE - No wins for this horse at Presque Isle Downs. KRIS CROSS STREET - This mare hasn't been showing me anything in the last couple of outings. OUR SWEET LEGACY - This filly likely won't be right there at the wire.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Putting our cash on #2 TRICOLETTE to win. Have to have odds of at least 5/2 or better though

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [2,4]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Skip

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Thistledown - Race #1 - Post: 12:55pm - Claiming - 8.2 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $10,300 Class Rating: 74

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#1 SUPERTRIPP (ML=5/2)


SUPERTRIPP - Delacruz and Morales have had fabulous success together over the last year. I really like that most recent race on July 24th at Thistledown where she ended up third.

Vulnerable Contenders: #7 GUYANA PRINCESS (ML=3/1), #4 LIZ LEMON (ML=7/2), #2 HOT FRENCH FRIES (ML=4/1),

GUYANA PRINCESS - Looked like she was in good form on July 10th. Hasn't been near the track since then though. Not a positive sign. This runner will have a tough time winning this 1 mile 40 yards dirt race. She just doesn't win races very often. LIZ LEMON - This racer ran a run-of-the-mill speed figure last out. She shouldn't improve and will likely lose in today's event running that figure. HOT FRENCH FRIES - Unlikely that the fig she registered on July 18th will hold up in this contest.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Putting our cash on #1 SUPERTRIPP to win. Have to have odds of at least 1/1 or better though

EXACTA WAGERS:
1 with 7

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
None

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
None

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Rick Needham at Saratoga

RACE #9 - SARATOGA RACE COURSE - 5:18 PM EASTERN POST


The Shine Again Stakes

7.0 FURLONGS DIRT FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD STAKES $100,000.00 PURSE

#7 EXPRESSION
#6 WAVELL AVENUE
#5 UNBRIDLED FOREVER
#2 SWEET BASIL

Here in just the 2nd running of this stakes test, #7 EXPRESSION, a 12-1 BOMB on top folks here in the "Wednesday Opener" ... she's the overall speed leader in this stake field, takes a class drop (-4), and has hit the board in each of her last five outings, winning in her 5th race back. Jockey Manuel Franco and Trainer Charlton Baker send her to the post ... they've hit the board with 56% of more than 50 entries saddled as a team to date. #6 WAVELL AVENUE, a 4-1 shot, has hit the board in four of her last five outings overall, including "Circle Trips" in both her 2nd and 5th races back.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Northfield: Wednesday 8/5 Analysis + Pick Four ticket
By Jeremey Day

DRF HARNESS

Race 8 - $10,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Jeremey’s $1 Pick Four Play:

1,4,6 / 1,3 / 6 / 3,4,5,8 = $24


Best Bet: SUZELLE SEELSTER (7th)

Spot Play: MS JETTA (5th)


Race 1

In a wide open race, (5) HS BABY GRACE is a nicely bred filly who showed a nice burst of speed last out and has room to improve. (6) TT'SSIZZLINSALLY comes off a confidence boosting win on the fair circuit; threat. (9) JESSE'S PRIDE is the horse to beat in the race but gets sent out for a low percentage pilot.

Race 2

(1) SAND SHOCKER well bred 2-year-old gets the best post and could be ready for a breakthrough effort. (4) BROOKLETS BLISS filly is the only horse in the field with a victory and should be closer turning for home. (5) BEAUTIFUL RED has just been racing evenly; command a price.

Race 3

(2) HIGH GEAR WINNER five-year-old turned it around in a big way last out. The trotter will threaten with a similar effort. (1) MASTEROFCEREMONIES gelding is capable of beating this bunch if he minds his manners. (9) FUN N PLEASURE is 0 for the year but made the most money in the field by far last year; threat.

Race 4

In a really weak field (9) BOLD DECISION has been facing slightly tougher and looks in line for a decent trip. (6) BLACKHAWK LOOKOUT paced a nice mile from a tough post last week. (1) BLUE SCOOTIN MATT rarely wins but gets the best post; use underneath.

Race 5

(6) MS JETTA four-year-old mare has a lot of upside and appears to be getting better. (5) DUNKS BROTHER seems to always get picked off late; use caution. (4) GOVERNMENT OFFICAL gelding owns a good burst of speed off the gate which could put him on the ticket underneath.

Race 6

(7) MOOLIT SHARK mare is 0 for the year but finds a nice spot to gain some confidence. (2) SUNRISE SUNSET comes off a scratch and is also 0 for the year but is capable of pacing a big mile with a good setup. (1) TIFFANY MALONE pacing mare needed her last start and should be sharper this time out.

Race 7

(9) SUZELLE HANOVER raced well last out and finds a very weak field. (3) THEN CAME YOU mare has been competitive against better on the year. (2) CINCINNATI MYSTRES will offer a big price and is capable with some racing luck.

Race 8

(6) DESPERATE CROWDS will try and make it two straight bumping up in class. The pacing mare set a lifetime mark last week and could have more to offer. (1) SKYWAY HANOVER gets the best post against a suspect bunch. (4) LAZY TOWN has had two straight pocket trips unable to mount a challenge in both; use underneath.

Race 9

(1) ROJANS'S LAST SHOT four-year-old trotter is the horse to beat if he minds his manners. (3) STIRLING BOUDICA owns the quickest win in the field; fires early. (9) REGAL GLIDE is 1 for 49 lifetime but appears to be fast when he stays trotting.

Race 10

(6) WELCOME WAGON gets sent out first start for the top trainer who has a good percentage in this scenario. (1) AWESOMEANDAMAZING should be in an ideal spot up front or in the pocket; threat. (4) TOBIN'S FORTUNE the pacer also makes his first start for a new barn and has room to improve.

Race 11

(3) ACTION-EAR-TO EAR pacing bred trotter could get an easy early lead and just needs to ration out his speed; driver's choice. (4) HIGH STAKES BANKER looked real good last out winning by open lengths. (5) CIRO doesn't win often but has been trotting faster miles than most in the field.

Race 12

(4) WHATA PACIFIC faces tougher bumping up in class but is one of few in the race with some upside. (3) KALLISTA has yet to be competitive with anything less than a perfect trip; command a price. (2) KJ'S FLASH JORDAN four-year-old could be primed for a better effort third start back off a long layoff against a very soft field.

Race 13

(6) JACK FINN trotting bred pacer just needs an aggressive drive for a chance to pick up his second win of the year. (9) ML GAMBLER has just been racing evenly but could be in line for a ground-saving trip. (1) RIDGE PARK looks to offer low value and has trouble finishing his miles; use caution.

Race 14

(3) CHARITY KID well bred mare will be tough to beat if she gets an easy early lead. (9) JAY JAY REDSKY has been competitive at this level but needs a better start than his most recent efforts. (2) LUCKY CIRO will offer a big price and can upset with some racing luck.

Race 15

(9) ADDYS SECRET has some question marks coming off the scratch but if ready the pacer owns wins against much better on the year. (6) MEDOLAND SAPPHIRE gets sent out for capable connections and paced a big mile last week after the early miscue; threat. (2) STONE OF MAGIC gets good post relief but has been camera shy this year; command a price.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SPOT PLAYS

For Wednesday


TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE


Charles Town (5th) Added Reward, 7-2
(6th) Miss Stroud, 4-1

Del Mar (2nd) Justification, 4-1
(5th) Lily Pod, 3-1

Delaware Park (4th) Crimson Valor, 6-1
(8th) Grecian Prince, 6-1


Evangeline Downs (3rd) Z Bonita, 5-1
(4th) Yabbay, 8-1


Indiana Grand (3rd) Stalwart Tee, 4-1
(5th) Time for My Angel, 4-1


Louisiana Downs (3rd) Leigh's Fast Fix, 5-1
(6th) North Light Ridge, 4-1


Mountaineer (2nd) Toe Tappin Fast, 4-1
(9th) Tizracer, 5-1


Penn National (5th) It Is Back, 9-2
(7th) Pohda Pohda, 7-2


Prairie Meadows (5th) How's My Girls, 4-1
(6th) Montana Rocky, 3-1


Presque Isle Downs (2nd) Two Wonders, 6-1
(6th) Our Sweet Legacy, 4-1


Saratoga (5th) Triple Play, 6-1
(8th) Granny Mc's Kitten, 4-1


Thistledown (2nd) He Is, 5-1
(6th) Indielo, 4-1

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Rays (54-54) at White Sox (50-55)

Game: 3
Venue: U.S. Cellular Field
Date: August 05, 2015 2:10 PM EDT

The Tampa Bay Rays have maintained their playoff hopes while putting a dent in Chicago's by adding to the White Sox's recent home woes.

The Rays will try to give themselves another boost by completing their first season sweep of the White Sox and first in a road series Wednesday.

Tampa Bay (54-54) is two games behind Toronto for the AL's second wild card after winning three in a row - the past two in Chicago - and only two teams stand between the Rays and Blue Jays.

Richie Shaffer hit his first major league homer and Tampa Bay had a season-best four in an 11-3 rout Tuesday, with two off All-Star Chris Sale.

"It was a great night all around. To have these offensive outbursts really help our team because we don't have them very often," center fielder Kevin Kiermaier said. "It lets us know that we can perform at a high level."

Tampa Bay will try to keep rolling in another matchup against a team that's been outscored 51-26 while losing five of six. The White Sox (50-55) won their previous seven - all on the road - to move within 2 1/2 games of a playoff spot, but are now 4 1/2 back with five teams in between them and Toronto.

The White Sox have lost eight of their last nine at home, and Carlos Rodon (4-4, 4.84 ERA) has typified their recent struggles on the South Side. The rookie left-hander, who has a major league-worst 6.57 walks per nine innings at home, has allowed a combined 15 runs in seven innings in his past two games there and gave up a career-worst eight in three innings in a 13-6 loss to the New York Yankees on Friday.

"Just got to be better," Rodon said after losing a third consecutive start at home. "That's about it."

Rodon will make his first appearance against the Rays while Erasmo Ramirez (8-4, 3.61) will try to finish off the sweep and continue his recent road dominance. Tampa Bay took its three home games against Chicago from June 12-14, and its five-game win streak matches its longest in the series.

The Rays have already clinched their best record in a season series, surpassing their 5-2 mark from 2013.

Ramirez, who will be pitching in Chicago for the first time, is 4-0 with a 1.70 ERA in his last seven road starts. He was pulled after tossing 4 1-3 scoreless innings in his lone start against the White Sox on Aug. 10 with Seattle.

The right-hander has been charged with nine runs in his last two starts after going 6-1 with a 1.29 ERA in his prior nine. Three of the four Ramirez yielded Friday, though, were unearned in a 7-5 loss in Boston. The right-hander didn't get a decision and is winless in his last three outings.

With J.B. Shuck and Emilio Bonifacio on the disabled list, no current White Sox player has gotten a hit off Ramirez. Jose Abreu, Gordon Beckham, Tyler Flowers and Alexei Ramirez are a combined 0 for 8.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Mariners (50-58) at Rockies (44-61)

Game: 3
Venue: Coors Field
Date: August 05, 2015 3:10 PM EDT

For the second time this season, Nelson Cruz is in the midst of an impressive power surge.

Seattle teammate Taijuan Walker showed signs of dominance in his most recent outing.

As Cruz looks to continue his offensive tear and Walker tries to build on his first career complete game, the Mariners attempt to earn a three-game road sweep of the struggling Colorado Rockies on Wednesday.

With a solo home run in the seventh inning of Tuesday's 10-4 victory, Cruz has homered in five straight games for the second time this season. He did it from April 11-15. Ken Griffey Jr., is the only Mariner to homer in at least six consecutive contests, doing so over eight straight in July 1993.

After going 5 for 8 in his first two career games at Coors Field, Cruz is batting .433 with 10 of his 31 home runs and 14 RBIs during a 15-game hitting streak.

'I hope he continues to impress me,' Seattle manager Lloyd McLendon said.

McClendon is growing fond of Walker (8-7, 4.73 ERA), who went 0-1 with an 8.02 ERA in four starts prior to yielding only a fourth-inning home run and matching a career high with 11 strikeouts in Friday's 6-1 victory at Minnesota.

'It's coming,' McClendon said. 'You can see what this young man is going to become. It's going to be special.

"This guy, he's got a great repertoire and when it's on, it's on.'

In his first full major league season, Walker has lasted at least eight innings three times over 21 starts. He went 1-4 with a 9.76 ERA in his first six road starts this year but is 5-0 with a 2.06 ERA in the last six.

"I just have to move on now and get ready for the next one," the right-hander, who turns 23 next week, told MLB's official website.

Looking to help Seattle (50-58) to a fourth straight win, Walker makes his first appearance against a Colorado team that's dropped three straight and six of its last seven.

One of two Rockies to face Walker, Jose Reyes is 0 for 6 with two strikeouts and a walk against him.

The veteran shortstop is 3 for 9 with two RBIs in this series to raise his average to .208 in six games since he was acquired by the Rockies (44-61) in the deal that sent Troy Tulowitzki to Toronto.

"He's doing a nice job in a tough situation for him," manager Walt Weiss said. "You can never replace a guy like Tulo, but he's not caught up in any of that. He's himself. He's an established veteran, an All-Star.

"He's done it all in this game, and he's showing up with the same joy, enthusiasm and passion that he has for his whole career."

Teammate Kyle Parker also is 3 for 9 in the set and hit his first home run in 23 career games Tuesday.

Chris Rusin (3-4, 4.61) had a better game at the plate than on the mound Thursday when he homered and singled but gave up six runs and 10 hits in five innings while not factoring in the decision of Colorado's 9-8 loss to St. Louis. The left-hander has not won since June 21 and is 0-1 with a 6.75 ERA in his last three starts.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Orioles (54-52) at Athletics (48-60)

Game: 3
Venue: O.co Coliseum
Date: August 05, 2015 3:35 PM EDT

T.J. McFarland's two scoreless innings of one-hit relief in the Baltimore Orioles' loss in the middle game of this series may not seem significant - except that it marked the first time in six games that the Oakland Athletics faced a left-handed pitcher.

It hardly seems like enough preparation for seeing another one less than 16 hours later considering the Athletics' woes versus Wei-Yin Chen.

Chen can improve to 5-0 in his career against Oakland by helping visiting Baltimore capture this three-game set Wednesday.

Oakland (48-60) had not faced a lefty starter or reliever in the first six games of this 11-game homestand before McFarland - called up from the minors before the game - entered in the seventh inning and yielded only Ike Davis' double in the Orioles' 5-0 defeat.

"He really makes the bullpen better," Orioles manager Buck Showalter said. "It's good to get him back."

Now the Athletics will try to improve upon a league-worst 8-19 mark versus lefty starters as they face Chen (5-6, 3.24 ERA), who has a 1.69 ERA in five starts against them for his lowest mark against an opponent he has faced multiple times.

Chen may have a matchup problem with Billy Butler, who is 8 for 18 against him. Josh Reddick is hitless in nine at-bats versus Chen but has yet to play in this series due to lingering stiffness in his lower back.

Oakland's three RBI leaders can't regularly hit lefties with Reddick at .190, Butler at .189 and Stephen Vogt at .226. Vogt is also in a 2-for-34 funk after striking out three times in four hitless at-bats Tuesday.

Chen has never faced Billy Burns, a .327 hitter against southpaws. Utility man Danny Valencia, who is 4 for 15 against Chen, could make his Oakland debut after being claimed off waivers from Toronto on Monday.

Chen's streak of yielding three runs or fewer in 11 straight games ended in Friday's 8-7 victory over Detroit in which he was charged with six runs over a season-low 3 1-3 innings.

Baltimore (54-52) lost for the third time in 11 games, going 0 for 8 with runners in scoring position as its streak of homering in 10 straight was snapped. Chris Bassitt earned his first victory by striking out seven in seven innings.

The day game after a night game means that both Vogt and the Orioles' Matt Wieters may not be behind the plate. Wieters hasn't started at catcher in consecutive games since July 6-7.

"We're going to talk about it a little bit after the game, see how he feels," Showalter said.

Slugger Chris Davis is hitting .310 with five homers and 15 RBIs in his last eight games. Jonathan Schoop is 8 for 14 in his last four.

A's starter Kendall Graveman (6-7, 3.84) took a step in the right direction by yielding an unearned run in 6 2-3 innings in Friday's 2-1 loss to Cleveland in which he avoided defeat. He posted a 10.22 ERA in losing his previous three starts, recording only four outs in the last of them.

"I was getting ahead of hitters and trusting everything I threw," Graveman said.

The right-hander recorded five outs and allowed a double to J.J. Hardy over two relief appearances against the Orioles last year.