At the Gate - Wednesday
By Mike Dempsey
Monday was a washout with the rains forcing the turf races on to the main track for the second day in a row. With the scratches, it turned into a chalky day.
We had four winners on top on the nine race card, but the prices were puny: $3.80, $3.70, $3.90 and $3.40.
However, the early Pick 5 with a reduced takeout still paid well despite all the chalk. I had three winners on top and my second choice won the other two races, the winners paying $3.90, $3.40, $4.20, $7.30 and $3.80. The $1 Pick 5 paid a decent $112.25. The early Pick 4 paid just $44.25.
We should be back on turf today although there is a chance for a few isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon.
The feature for Wednesday is the $100,000 Coronation Cup, a 5 ½ furlong turf sprint for three-year-old fillies. Nine will go to the post, although a pair is cross-entered in a race on tomorrow’s card so we could be down to seven.
The race is top heavy with early speed and is a tricky race to handicap. I am going with the Todd Pletcher trained Elena Strikes who will be making her turf debut. Pletcher is off to a strong start at the meeting, with 10 winners from 27 starters with six second place finishes and four third place finishes. He is seeking his 11th training title at the Spa.
Here is today’s second race (the opener is a steeplechase) from Saratoga to get the day off to a good start:
SAR Race 2 Md $40,000 (1:00 ET)
4 Confessa 10-1
5 Brandini 3-1
6 Bella Fachi 6-1
3 On a Snowy Evening 5-1
Analysis: Confessa tries dirt and drops in for a tag for the first time here after getting outrun in both starts on grass. The filly catches an easier spot here and seems more suited pedigree wise for the main track. The filly is by Repent out of an Awesome Again mare that has dropped four other foals to race, all winners including one stakes winner, top earner Baffle Me ($427,956). She should be able to handle nine furlongs and she is in light with the bug.
Brandini acted up and broke through the gate and then ended up no match for a 13 1/2 length winner in a runner up finish last out as the beaten favorite. She has now been the beaten fav in 4 of her 7 career starts with four runner up finishes. This is just her second for a tag and she has enough pedigree to handle the extra ground. She is by E Dubai out of a Behrens mare, her first foal to race. She should be ready for a top effort in the third start off the bench for the Bond barn.
Wagering
WIN: #4 to win at 9-2 or better.
EX: 4,5 / 3,4,5,6
TRI: 4,5 / 3,4,5,6 / 2,3,4,5,6
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Saratoga:
SAR Race 9 The Coronation Cup (4:42 ET)
10 Elena Strikes 4-1
5 Scatcapade 5-1
3 Burn Control 6-1
7 Stars Above Me 5-1
Analysis: Elena Strikes is coming off a gate to wire score against Alw-2 foes on the main track at Belmont Park. The filly makes her turf debut here for the Pletcher barn that is 14% winners moving runners from dirt to turf, on the low side considering the barn's numbers in most other categories. The filly is out of the dirt stakes winner Ticket to Houston ($147,150 ) who has dropped eight winners including one turf winner and a couple of stakes winners, top earner Runway Model ($725,598). With this race top heavy with early speed Johnny V. should get a good tracking trip from just off the pace here and the filly has shown an ability to rate.
Scatcapade stalked the early pace and did not have enough punch left late in a fourth place finish going seven furlongs on the turf against Alw-1 foes. Two back going six furlongs she made a good late rally to finish in the runner up spot behind Go West Marie, who won the Cal bred Fleet Treat at Del Mar on July 26. The cut back to 5 1/2 furlongs is a concern and her trainer Clement noted that this distance may be too short for her, but she will get a great pace set up and should be rolling late.
Burn Control is perfect in two starts on dirt and makes her turf debut here for the DeMasi barn. She crushed maidens in her debut at Philly and then dueled through sharp early fractions an after giving up the lead came back to beat Alw-1 foes in her last outing. She has a solid turf pedigree, by Bernstein out of a Pivotal mare that has dropped one turf winner. The barn is showing just a 1 for 31 mark moving runners from dirt to turf. The filly has some serious early zip and looks as if she may get overlooked on the tote here.
Wagering
WIN: #10 to win at 3-1 or better.
EX: 5,10 / 3,5,7,10
TRI: 5,10 / 3,5,7,10 / 3,5,6,7,10
Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
Saratoga
R1: #4 Bodie Island 10-1
R2: #4 Confessa 10-1
R3: #2 Risky Rachel 10-1
R6: #5 My Donna Jean 8-1
R6: #2 Coast of Sangria 8-1
R8: #7 Dear Mama 8-1
R8: #5 Eddy Gourmet 15-1
Good luck today!
w-thumbs!^
