NBA Finals Game 3 Preview
By Tony Mejia
NBA Finals - Game 3 - Warriors lead 2-0
Cleveland at Golden State (-1/206.5), 9:00 p.m. ET - ABC
We’ve reached the point in the NBA Finals where all clichés apply.
Since the favorite won both home games, Game 3 is a must-win for the team returning home to lick their wounds after being outscored by an average of 107-83. The old playoff adage is that a series doesn’t start unless the home team loses, but since a 3-0 deficit is basically insurmountable, the Cavaliers’ chances are effectively over if they don’t win.
Because the venue change favors Cleveland and LeBron James is involved, oddsmakers are giving the Eastern Conference champs the benefit of the doubt by calling this a pick’em, respecting the homecourt edge in spite of what we’ve seen transpire to date. After all, Golden State has won the first two games by only 48 points thus far, an NBA record.
There’s an injury concern too, since forward Kevin Love must clear the NBA’s concussion protocol. According to ESPN, he’s confident he’ll be able to play, but that won’t be official until closer to tip-off.
If Love can’t go, 7-foot center Timofey Mozgov, previously banished to the end of the bench for most of the postseason, is expected to have a larger role. While everything tangible seems to favor the Warriors, trends and the expectation that the Cavs will be able to atone for a dismal 110-77 Game 2 loss do fuel faith in the Cavs, especially since Golden State has historically been a letdown in this spot.
"The Warriors have dominated through the first two games of the NBA Finals, but Golden State has struggled in Game 3's of the playoffs the last two seasons. This postseason, the defending champions lost to the Rockets by one point in Game 3 of the opening round and 12 points of Game 3 in the second round to the Blazers," NBA expert Kevin Rogers said. "Granted, Stephen Curry missed both those games due to injury, but he played in the Game 3 blowout loss of the Western Conference Finals at Oklahoma City.
"In the role of a road favorite, the Warriors are 0-6 ATS since the start of the 2015 playoffs in Game 3's, which includes a setback in last season's NBA Finals at Cleveland. However, if the Warriors get flipped to a road underdog on Wednesday, the champs have been successful as Golden State rolled Houston in Game 3 of last season's Western Conference Finals, 115-80 in their only 'dog opportunity in this situation.”
We’ll see which way the money moves the line, but Golden State is well aware of their struggles away from Oakland, sporting a 3-4 record (straight up and against the spread) in road games this postseason. Their last opportunity in this spot came in that must-win Game 6 comeback conquest at Oklahoma City, so they’re looking to build off that performance. Emotional leader Draymond Green has already said it’s on him to have his teammates ready to play. For the Cavs, it’s all on the King, who has led his team to a perfect 7-0 mark in Cleveland these playoffs, bringing their record to 40-8 (.800) on the season.
The beauty of the NBA Finals is that you get to hear a variety of voices commenting about the show unfolding in front of them. Everyone from Magic Johnson to Larry King to Jerry West has chimed in, as has Phil Jackson, who chose to put a comeback bid squarely on James’ shoulders while sharing his recollections of his top guy being put through the ringer the way James has been over the past few days.
"It did something to Michael Jordan," Jackson said of criticism directed at him after going down 2-0 in the 1993 Eastern Conference finals. "You learned something about pulling the cape of Superman. It's not a good idea. He was a man possessed after that. I think it's going to take something for LeBron to step into that. Put his cape on and say, 'I'm going to have to take over a lot of this series, doing the things beyond my level or my normal capacity.' He's been a team player up until this point but I think he's going to have to step beyond that."
So, to recap, the most decorated head coach in NBA history thinks LeBron needs to break character and become more aggressive in order to get his team back in the series. Go out and get your 50 points, LeBron. That’s what M.J. would’ve done.
"What does that actually mean?" James responded, when told of the ‘possessed’ advice. "I think, for me to go out and be who I am, and play as true to the game and as hard as I can, and try to lead this team as who I am. I’m not anybody else. I’m not Michael, I’m not (Muhammad) Ali, I’m not nobody else that’s done so many great things for sport. I am who I am, and if I’m able to go out and put together a game like that -- it wasn’t because I was possessed. It’s because I worked on my craft all season long, and that’s the result of it. Phil’s a great coach. Mike’s a great player. But I am who I am."
James has always been the ultimate team player, by far more Magic than Jordan. At his most effective, he liberates teammates to produce by creating opportunities with the attention he commands and his exceptional on-court IQ and passing skills. He’s dished out nine assists in each of the first two games and should’ve been in double-digits if teammates had knocked down more shots. Kyrie Irving is shooting 33 percent despite averaging 18 points per game, which is a drastic drop-off from what he did against the Eastern Conference these playoffs, posting a shooting clip of 48 percent and 23.5 points per game. Against Toronto, he averaged 25.3 points at home, shooting 57 percent. Cleveland is 6-1 this postseason when J.R. Smith scores in double-figures, but he’s scored a total of eight points in these Finals, shooting 2-for-7 from 3-point range.
Jackson might have meant well with his advice, but he’s dead wrong. James is going to need Irving and Smith to make shots so that his efficient game can flourish without him trying to force the action. In the 21st-century NBA, one player, not even Jordan, can defeat a team simply by becoming possessed. Especially not Golden State, which has taken the collective approach to the brink of becoming the winningest single-season team of all-time counting regular-season and playoffs.
The Warriors would be surpassing Jackson’s 1995-96 Bulls, who went 87-13 in winning it all two decades ago. Golden State comes into Game 3 of the NBA Finals at 87-14. It comes in having found its defensive chops, reminding everyone that there are two sides to its show. On that side of the ball, they’ve dominated of late, particularly in the second half of their last five games.
We’ll see if the Cavs believe it’s still best to try and run with the Warriors at an accelerated pace or attempt to slow things down and disrupt their rhythm, a formula that worked some last year.
The first two games in this series easily went ‘under’ the number and oddsmakers opened Game 3’s total at 206 ½. NBA Totals Expert Chris David doesn’t believe we’ll see a change in Cleveland.
"I still believe the value is with the ‘under’ and I’m very surprised the total isn’t lower. These teams have now played 10 times over the last two seasons and the ‘under’ has gone 6-3-1 in those games," said David. "It’s become very apparent that Cleveland doesn’t have the scheme or manpower to score on Golden State and believing that will change at home probably could be wishful thinking. Even though the Warriors have surrendered 112.5 PPG on the road in this year’s playoffs, the Cavs haven’t proven they could come close to those numbers for this particular matchup.
"Cleveland is averaging 90.7 PPG in its last 10 against Golden State, which includes the 89 and 77-point effort in this series. I’m well aware that Cleveland has played better at home in the playoffs, especially offensively (111 PPG) but the overused cliché of 'styles makes fights' fits perfectly in this series. In last year’s finals, the totals ranged from 193 ½ to 203 ½ and I’m not sure why we aren’t seeing similar numbers this summer. With all that being said, I’m buying the ‘under’ in Game 3 (206 ½) and I would also lean to Golden State’s team total ‘under’ of 103 ½."
The Cavs need to stop giving up easy buckets and ensure they make the Warriors work at both ends. Whether they go big or small, Cleveland has to find a flow that has eluded it. We’ll see if returning home helps the Eastern Conference champs regain their rhythm.
Currently, we’re watching James fail in another NBA Finals, but oddsmakers aren’t sold this is over yet. Curry, the unanimous MVP, hasn’t even played well in the series and has admitted his knee needs rest. Green has had issues with his energy level on the road, which has dragged down teammates. Intrigue remains in spite of Sunday’s massacre. Game 3 will either end the series or get it started again.
