Wednesday 3/23 Plays

[smooth53_98]

TOP PLAYS:
AQU R3 - 3 Bayou Breeze 9-5

SECONDARY PLAYS:
AQU R2 - 1 Twin Tower 3-1

LONGSHOTS:
-none

Good Luck!

-smooth

 

[smooth53_98]

Harness:

Meadowlands
R7 - 4 Reach For Eternity 7-2 (ex 4-1,3,7-4)
R11 - 9 Humminbird N 7-2 (ex 9-3,6,8-9)

Good Luck!

-smooth

 

[smooth53_98]

Meadowlands Pick 4

Race 6 - $1 Pick 4: 1,2,3 with 4,7 with 1,3,10 with 2,3,6 (54 combinations)

Good Luck!

-smooth

 

[jimmyk+]

like that TWIN TOWER selection , maybe get 7-2 or 4-1 as BUSY will be bet HARD ...........!!!

 

[smooth53_98]

That's what I am hoping for... no time to watch the tote tomorrow, I'll have to put it in early and pray someone pounds Busy!

-smooth

 

[jimmyk+]

lets get that nag home in the 2nd at AQU. , gl w the rest of your plays today ..............lets keep this momentum rollin !!!!! Gonna tell everyone i see at the poker room that BUSY cant lose !!!! get us a price !!! lol !!!

 

[smooth53_98]

Race 2 - Aqueduct – Smooth’s figures

Horse / Raw Speed / Speed / Pace / Power
1 / 85.39 / 183.87 / -26.40 / 295.65
3 / 83.91 / 173.04 / -17.75 / 274.70
6 / 78.00 / 165.43 / -11.40 / 254.83
2 / 74.50 / 165.37 / -14.75 / 254.62
7 / 79.50 / 164.46 / -1.75 / 245.71
5 / 81.50 / 165.29 / 9.00 / 237.79
4 / 75.00 / 161.88 / 5.00 / 231.88

Horses are sorted based on Power…. The larger the number, the better with the exception of pace where the lower the number the better. When a horse is tops in all four categories, it is a big plus.

-smooth

 

[jimmyk+]

interesting, looks very similar to a rating system my pick 6 partner uses .........adheres to it like a slave , no matter how good the horse looks on paper, if the power # isn't right it's a tossout .................w/ VERY few exceptions , we have enjoyed great success w/ it ........he's been using it for 12 years and swears by it ........personally, i think he is a slave to the system ,as i've found times where i've hit a decent number on a horse based on intangibles not included in his number crunching (i.e. horse for course , wet/fast, trainer streaks, among others ) BUT,that being said, i cannot argue w/ his results ........His DOCUMENTED ROI is outstanding..............

 

[smooth53_98]

I don't have the time I need to crunch the numbers on every race that I want to, however if my figures disagree with my angles, generally I will lower my wager... when everything agrees, I unload on it. I have found my power figures to be quite profitable overall, and even better when coupled with some of my stronger angles.

-smooth

 

[jimmyk+]

so you are flexible as to bet size whereas he is not , it's either a play or no play ....................i have tried to tell him that he needs to be flexible because this game CANNOT be reduced to JUST numbers ...............he 's a stubborn one and makes money w/ it , so who am i to argue .................i think 'capping is part math , part art and part luck ............gotta incorporate ALL factors in play for any given race .......jmo

 

[smooth53_98]

I generally rate my plays based on how the angles, my figures, my software (when I actually use it), and gut feel about it. I base most of my exotics off of the variances between the power figures of different entries.

When I get my home computer back (currently it is in storage as my wife and I are between houses right now), I will try to post some of my software's output here. My software is based on probabilities of certain factors producing winners next time out and does projet a line for each horse in the race (generally what I use as my threshold for betting, or the lowest I will take a horse at)... It works very well, especially when I couple it with my figures (All 4 figures and my software agreeing produces 47.86% winners with a 1.16 ROI... this condition happens in about 10% of all the races where I run all both my software and all my figures). Couple that with some of my top shelf angles and we are over 50% in some categories (and up to 75% with a specific chalky angle).

I like to think of my figures/software as the math, my angles as the art, and leaving the rest up to luck!

-smooth

 

[smooth53_98]

TOP PLAYS:
AQU R3 - 3 Bayou Breeze 9-5 - 1ST 3.80/2.60/2.10

SECONDARY PLAYS:
AQU R2 - 1 Twin Tower 3-1 - 1ST 7.60/4.20/3.00

LONGSHOTS:
-none

 

[jimmyk+]

awesome job Smooth !!!!

 

[smooth53_98]

Meadowlands
R7 - 4 Reach For Eternity 7-2 (ex 4-1,3,7-4) - OUT
R11 - 9 Humminbird N 7-2 (ex 9-3,6,8-9) - 3RD 2.80