NCAAB
Wednesday, March 1
Arkansas won/covered its last five games; they’re 6-2 on SEC road, 4-1 as a road underdog, with losses by 26 at Kentucky, 5 at Missouri. Florida won eight of its last nine games, is 5-3 as a home favorite, covering three of last four home games. Florida won 81-72 at Arkansas Dec 29, their 6th series win in row; Gators had 16 offensive rebounds, but injured C Egbunu had five of them. Razorbacks are 0-7 in the Swamp since ’04, losing last visit 57-56 two years ago. Double digit home favorites are 12-12-1 vs spread in SEC games this season.
Northwestern lost five of its last seven games; they’re 4-3 at home, losing two of last three Big 14 home tilts. Wildcats need quality wins to get off bubble. Michigan won five of its last six games; they’re 2-5 on Big 14 road, winning by 12 at Indiana, 5 at Rutgers. Michigan won nine of last ten series games, with two of last three going OT; Wolverines won two of last three visits to Evanston- two of those three went to OT. Big 14 home teams are 12-12 vs spread in games with spread of 2 or less points.
Dayton won its last eight games (5-3 vs spread); they’re 5-3 as a home favorite, with 5 of 8 home wins by 11+ points. VCU won eight of its last nine games; they lost three of last four games outside of Richmond (won by 11 at crosstown rival Spiders). VCU beat Dayton 73-68 at home Jan 27, after trailing by 10 in first half; Rams were just 2-15 on arc, but had 19-11 edge on foul line. VCU is 4-2 vs Dayton in A-14 games; teams split pair of games here. A-14 home favorites of 5 or less points are 12-13 vs spread this season.
Ole Miss won six of its last eight games, is 4-4 on SEC road, 5-2 vs spread as a road underdog. Rebels won five of last seven games with Alabama, but lost three of last four visits here- they won 82-74 in last visit to Tuscaloosa, in ’15. Crimson Tide is 3-5 in its last eight games, losing three of last four home games. Alabama is 2-4 vs spread as a home favorite. Five of Bama’s last seven games were decided by 5 or less points. SEC home favorites of 5 or less points are 9-21 against the spread this season.
Xavier lost its last five games, is 1-8 vs spread since Somner was lost for the year; Musketeers are 5-3 in Big East home games, 3-3 as a home favorite. Marquette lost five of its last eight games, is 2-6 on Big East road, with only wins at Creighton/DePaul. Marquette hammered Xavier 83-61 at home 11 days ago, going 13-36 on arc (Xavier was 2-17). Musketeers are 6-3 in Big East meetings, winning all three games played here, by 7-4-8 points. Big East home teams are 9-6 vs number in game where spread was 3 or less points.
Louisville won four of its last five games, is just 4-4 on ACC road; favorites are 7-0-1 vs spread in those games— Cardinals are 3-0-1 as a road favorite, with road wins by 15-55-23-4 points. Wake Forest lost three of last five games; they’re 5-3 at home in ACC, winning last three home tilts. Deacons are 3-1 as a home underdog. Cards won 85-76/65-57 in its two ACC games with Wake, winning by 9 here couple years ago. Louisville is shooting 66% on foul line in ACC games, worst in league. ACC road favorites of 3 or less points are 7-5-1 vs spread.
Kansas State lost seven of last nine games, is 3-3 as a Big X road underdog; three of their five road losses are by 5 or less points. TCU lost its last five games, is 1-5 vs spread in its last six games; Horned Frogs are 4-4 at home; their last three home games were decided by total of 5 points. TCU is 3-2 in its last five games with Kansas State; Horned Frogs won 86-80 in OT in Little Apple Feb 1, going 10-17 on arc- they were down 5 with 2:19 left in regulation. Wildcats won three of its last four trips to TCU. Big X home favorites of 3 or less points are 4-8.
Texas lost its last five games, is 5-3 vs spread as a road underdog; six of their eight road losses (0-8) are by 9+ points. Longhorns beat Texas Tech 62-58 at home Feb 1; they’re 16-2 in last 18 meetings with Tech, but they lost two of last three visits to Lubbock. Tech lost its last three games, two in OT; they covered five of last seven games. Red Raiders are 5-3 at home, 2-3 as a home favorite, with wins by 1-1-6-8-6 points. Eight of last nine Tech games were decided by 8 or less points, or in OT. Big X home favorites of 8+ points are 7-20-1 vs spread.
Michigan State won six of last eight games, but is 1-5 in last six road games; they’re 2-4 as a Big 14 road underdog- their only Big 14 road wins are at Minnesota/Nebraska. Illinois won its last three games, all as underdogs, allowing average of 57.7 pts/game; they lost three of last four home games. Underdogs are 6-2 vs spread in Illini home games. MSU won four of last six games with Illinois, winning by 16-7 points in last two visits here. Big 14 home favorites of 3 or less points are 14-11 vs spread this season.
USC lost its last four games, is squarely on bubble; Trojans are 4-3 at home, 2-2 as home favorite, with wins by 16-3-8-26 in Galen Center. Wazzu won its last two games after a 2-10 skid; Coogs are 5-2 vs spread as a road underdog. USC shot 68% inside arc, won 86-77 at Washington State Feb 4; Coogs took only five FT’s the whole game (USC was 13-20). Trojans won last three series games, by 13-10-9 points- teams split last four meetings here. Double digit home favorites are 12-17-1 vs spread in Pac-12 tilts this season.
UNLV is in freefall, losing nine games in row in worst stretch in program history. Rebels are 2-6 at home, 1-5 vs spread as a home underdog. Utah State is 5-4 in its last nine games, but 1-7 on MW road, with only win by 6 at San Jose State. Aggies are 6-2-1 vs spread in their last nine games. USU made 13-21 on arc in 79-63 home win over UNLV Jan 7; home side won five of six Mountain West series games. Aggies lost 62-42/79-77 in last two regular season meetings here. Mountain West road favorites of 5 or less points are 6-7-1 vs spread this season.
OVC tournament, Nashville
Tennessee State beat SE Missouri 65-62 in only meeting Jan 5; TSU is 10-3 in last 13 series games, 2-2 in last four. Tigers are 0-1 in OVC tourney games the last three years; SEMo is 0-1 the last two years- not everyone makes this tourney. TSU won four of its last six games, lost by only 5 at OVC kingpin Belmont in their last game- they start three seniors. Redhawks are 3-4 in last seven games but did win three of last five on the road- they start two freshmen, three seniors, which is odd. SEMo forces turnovers 21.2% of time in OVC, best in league.
Murray State went 8-8 in OVC after being picked to win their division; Racers’ first non-winning OVC season since at least 2001. Racers lost last three games, allowing 82.3 pts/game. Murray has #11 eFG% defense in OVC. Tennessee Tech beat Murray 71-67 at home Jan 7, its second win a row over the Racers after 11 consecutive losses. Eagles have #11 eFG% offense in OVC, making only 32.7% of their 3’s. Tech is 1-2 in OVC tourney games the last four years; since 2003, Murray is 17-10 in this tourney, but 2-3 the last three years.
