SPORTS WAGERS
The Honda Classic
This is probably going to be a good event to wager on in terms of a longshot hitting because three favorites in a row (Dustin Johnson, Jordan Spieth and Hideki Matsuyama) have cashed in the past three weeks, respectively. The favorite this week is Justin Thomas. With that, the PGA TOUR now makes it annual leap to the Florida Swing at the testing PGA National course in Palm Beach, the 10th anniversary of the Honda Classic touching down at this famous stretch.
There’s no surprise to learn that only one former winner here in the last five years has reached double digits under par. The 7,158 yard Par 70 was initially designed by Tom and George Fazio, although it was given a going-over by Jack Nicklaus in 1990; a makeover which created the infamous ‘Bear Trap’ of holes from 15-17. Plenty of hopes have faded and dreams have been crushed at this treacherous trio. The fairways and greens are heavily bunkered and as we have made the switch from California to Florida, so, too, do we make the transition from Poa Annua to Bermuda grass – something for deep stat nerds like us to note down.
Despite the move from LA to Florida, the general feeling is that conditions will be Californian in their nature: breezy and with outbursts of rain. Those players who got stuck into the last few weeks should feel right at home. There’s also a sense that the golfing test will be similar to those of late: Pebble Beach and Riviera featured non-penal conditions off the tee but hard-to-hit greens, and although the change from Poa Annua to Bentgrass is of significance, recent form is also a huge factor. This being a Par 70 track there are only two Par 5s to attack, and boy you had better hope your picks make the most of them. Adam Scott played the longer holes at -6 last year in a string that read 4-4-3-4-4-5-5-5, so doing the business here early in the week is key. With four of the Par 4s measuring 450 yards or more, bogey avoidance will also become a key metric. Lastly, strong winds are expected again and PGA National is a fairly exposed track so expertise in gusty conditions is another key.
The following bets to win outright will be placed at Bet365 because of their cash-out option during the event.
The head to head match-ups will be bet at unless otherwise stated
Wesley Bryan 125-1
After finishing tied for fourth at Riviera you might think the cat is out of the bag regarding this outstanding young talent, but no, the Vegas sportsbooks have him available at a sweet price that we’re not about to miss. That’s very surprising, as even a quick bit of research will note that in his sole start at PGA National in this event Bryan finished a hugely impressive T9 as a rookie. The 26-year-old has had a pretty mixed start to life on the main tour, but his game looks ideally suited to shorter tests where greens are hard to hit. In gaining +1.36 shots from tee-to-green and +1.08 on approach last week, he served notice of that (risking 0.2 units to win 25 units).
Note: There are no heads up match-ups available for Bryan
Daniel Berger 33-1
Here’s an impressive young talent who we expect to get back to winning ways in 2017, and what better event than the one he narrowly missed out on victory back in 2015. That playoff defeat started a fire in Berger and the Florida native (who also went to college in the State such is his love of the place) would claim the first title of his career at the St. Jude Classic in June of last year. It has been a mixed bag so far in 2017 but his best performance of the year to date came in his last outing at the WM Phoenix Open, where after an opening 71 he followed up with 66-66-68 to finish T7. Coming back to his home turf, Berger will surely be confident of making a decent fist of another shot at the title. Berger ranks 17th on tour in Scrambling and 23rd in Birdie Average, two key areas that figure to aid his quest here. Although we prefer odds higher than 33-1, this is a field and event that Berger figures to thrive in (risking 0.2 units to win 6.6 units).
Head-to-head matchups:
D. Berger +101 over D. Woodland (Risking 1 unit).
D. Berger +121 over P. Casey (Risking 1 unit).
Russell Knox 28-1
The more we look at Knox for this event, the more we like him. Scotsman Knox has played PGA National three times – 26-3-2 is an impressive run here by anyone’s standards, and you could get the sense that in wind conditions and on Bermuda surfaces, he is as likely as anyone to prosper. After bagging a pair of titles in 2016 and two runner-up spots, it has been a quiet start to the new term for Knox although a T3 at the OHL Classic back in November was an obvious highlight. A missed cut at the WM Phoenix Open has put the dampeners on a mini run of T17 (Tournament of Champions) and T11 (Sony Open), but having enjoyed plenty of time off of late expect a much-improves showing from the Scot this week. Knox is 5th on Tour in Birdie Average, 6th in Greens in Regulation and 10th in Par 5 Scoring Average (risking 0.2 units to win 5.6 units). 2.6
Head-to-head matchups:
R. Knox +127 over S, Garcia (Risking 1 unit).
R. Knox -122 over L. Oosthuizen (Risking 1.22 units to win).
Ollie Schniederjans 60-1
The 23-year-old has banked top-10s at Torrey Pines and Riviera this season already, so we know that he can handle the more difficult tracks and that experience should bode well for his third visit to the PGA National. He missed the cut last year but finished T9 as a rookie in 2015, and so at this kind of price he has to be worth a go. Schniederjans was one of the best tee-to-green exponents on show last week with +1.74 strokes gained T2G and +1.08 in approach, and it confirms our suspicion that this is a young man with an excellent short game. If he could get his putter going he could well claim the first PGA TOUR win of his career sooner rather than later (risking 0.2 units to win 12 units).
Head-to-head matchup:
O. Schniederjans +120 over E. Grillo (Risking 1 unit).
Luke Donald 66-1
The Englishman loves playing at PGA National, and so it has been refreshing to see him play himself into some kind of form over the past few weeks. A T23 at Pebble Beach was backed by a T17 at Riviera last time out, and those are nice numbers for a guy who has his name inscribed on the Honda Classic trophy and who recorded back-to-back top-10s here in 2014 and 2015. Statistically Donald is nothing special but sometimes players just fit courses, regardless of what the data is telling you. (risking 0.2 units to win 13.2)
Head-to-head matchup:
L. Donald -101 over M. Kayner (Risking 1.01 units to win 1 unit).
