STATSYSTEMS SPORTS STAT/SHEETS, 2/19/14
NCAA COLLEGE BASKETBALL
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** Wednesday, 2/19/14 NCAACB Knowledge *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2013-14 NCAA College Basketball season we will analyze all of your daily basketball action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
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Wednesday's Notebook
•St Joe's won last three games with Rhode Island, beating them 61-57 in first meeting Jan 22. Hawks won/covered four of last five games, 3-2 on A-13 road, winning by 4-3-11 points on foreign soil. URI lost last five games (1-4 vs. spread); they're 2-1 as a home underdog, losing home games by 1-5-12 points- underdogs are 4-1 versus spread in their home games. A-13 home underdogs of 5 or less points are 7-10 versus spread.
•Cincinnati (-14) beat UCF 69-51 at home Jan 23, making 56% inside arc, while Knights were 6-17 on foul line. Bearcats are 0-3 as road favorites, winning away games by 16-1-7-4-3 points, with a loss at SMU. Home underdogs are 5-1 versus spread in their road games. AAC home underdogs of 8 or less points are 3-8 versus spread. UCF snapped 9-game skid in last game- they're 0-4 as home dogs, losing at home by 25-12-10-1-20.
•Home side won seven of last eight Akron-Buffalo games; Zips lost last four visits here, by 13-3-12-14 points. Akron is 3-2 in last five games (0-5 vs. spread) with four of five decided by 4 or less points- they're 2-1 as road dogs, losing two of last three on road, by 3-3 points. Buffalo won five of last seven games, is 5-1 as home favorite, but they lost last home game. MAC home favorites of 5 or less points are 11-13.
•Home team won 10 of last 12 Western Michigan-Ohio games; Broncos lost last five visits here, by 4-32-3-16-5 points- they beat Ohio 90-74 in first meeting (+1) Feb 5, outscoring Bobcats 26-7 on foul line, 38-20 in last 10:00 of game. MAC home favorites of more than 5 points are 7-14 versus spread. Ohio won its last three home games; they're 2-4 as favorites at home, winning in Athens by 20-4-5-7 points.
•Creighton (-8) beat Marquette 67-49 at home Dec 31; Bluejays were 13 of 35 from arc, 4-4 on line, 12-27 inside arc. Big East home underdogs of 4 or less points are 6-4 versus spread. Marquette won/covered its last three games- they're 5-1 at home, with only loss in OT to Villanova. Eagles are 2-4 as Big East underdogs. Creighton won six of last seven games, is 1-4 versus spread in last five- dogs covered their last four road games.
•Vanderbilt (+1.5) beat Missouri 78-75 at home Jan 16, making 12-32 on arc as they avenged an 81-59 loss here LY; Commodores are 3-2 as road dogs, losing away games by 5-23-6 points, winning at A&M/Georgia. Missouri won last two games by total of six points; they're 2-3 as home favorites, winning at home by 21-8-1-5, losing to Georgia/Kentucky. SEC home favorites of 9+ points are 14-8 versus spread.
•Oregon split its last six games after a 1-5 Pac-12 start; Ducks are 1-4 as home favorites, winning last two at home by 12-10 points. Washington (+2.5) beat Oregon 80-76 Jan 23, shooting 57% inside arc; Huskies lost last three visits to Eugene by 5-25-5 points. Pac-12 double digit home favorites are 12-8 versus spread. Washington lost four of its last five games; they lost last six road games, covering one of last four as road dog.
•Miami lost six of its last seven games, with last four losses all by 7 or less points; Hurricanes are 0-3 as ACC favorites this year, getting beat SU in all three- they're 0-6 at home, scoring 60 or less points in all six. Notre Dame lost five of last seven games, with both wins in OT; Irish are 0-5 on ACC road, losing away games by 5-8-2-7-6 points. ACC home favorites of 5 or less points are 6-12 versus spread.
•Illinois lost 10 of last 11 games, with only win at Penn State; Illini won four of last six games versus Minnesota, splitting last four played here. Big Dozen single digit home favorites are 12-20 versus spread. Minnesota lost four of last six games but won four of last five at home- they're 1-3 as a home favorite-- underdogs covered five of their six home games. Illinois is 2-3 as a road underdog, losing away games by 25-6-7-10-9 points.
•Arizona (-13) beat Utah 65-56 at home Jan 26, after trailing by 10 early in game that was tied with 10:00 to go; Wildcats are 5-0 versus Utah in its Pac-12 games, winning here by 26-4 points. Arizona split its last four games, is 1-6 versus spread in last seven; their last three road games were all decided by 3 or less points. Pac-12 home underdogs of 5 or less points are 11-8 versus spread. Utah won its last five home games.
•UCLA (-7) beat Cal 76-64 at home Jan 26, holding Bears to 35% from floor; Bruins lost last three visits to Berkeley by 4-16-13 points. UCLA won/covered six of last seven games; they're 3-2 on Pac-12 road, losing at Utah/Oregon State. Pac-12 home favorites of 4 or less points are 3-5 versus spread. California won three of last four games but lost two of its last three at home- they're 2-5 versus spread in their last seven games.
•UNLV led by 16 early, hung on for 76-73 (+8.5) win at Pit Jan 15, with Rebels making 7-13 from arc; teams are now 7-7 in last 14 series games, but Lobos beat UNLV on this court in last two MW tourneys, after loss to Rebels here in regular season. Mountain West home teams are 7-5 versus spread in games where spread was 2 or less points. UNLV won six of its last seven games- they're just 2-4 as a home favorite.
•Colorado was just 9-24 on foul line in 72-51 (+5.5) loss at Arizona State Jan 25; ASU won last three series games by 9-1-21 points- they had big rivalry win Friday night, while Buffs won at USC Sunday, so they had two less days to prep for this. Pac-12 home teams are 19-14 versus spread in games where number was less than six points. Buffaloes are won four of last five games, are 3-2 as home favorites since Dinwiddie got hurt.
•Situational Trends of The Day
-- BOSTON COLLEGE is 12-1 ATS (+10.9 Units) in road games off an upset loss to a conference rival as a home favorite since 1997.
The average score was BOSTON COLLEGE 67.5, OPPONENT 66.3.
-- CINCINNATI is 8-0 UNDER (+8.0 Units) after a game where they made 78% of their free throws or better over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was CINCINNATI 60.0, OPPONENT 57.6.
-- LOYOLA-IL is 1-11 against the 1rst half line (-11.1 Units) in home games after 2 straight games committing 11 or less turnovers since 1997.
The average score was LOYOLA-IL 27.5, OPPONENT 33.2.
-- SYRACUSE is 10-0 UNDER (+10.0 Units) the 1rst half total off 2 consecutive close wins by 5 or less over a conference rival since 1997.
The average score was SYRACUSE 29.6, OPPONENT 27.8.
-- PORTER MOSER is 17-4 UNDER (+12.6 Units) the 1rst half total after 3 straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers as the coach of LOYOLA-IL.
The average score was MOSER 24.7, OPPONENT 28.6.
•Matchup Trends of The Day
-- NORTHWESTERN is 1-11 ATS (-11.1 Units) versus excellent teams - shooting >=45% with a defense of <=42% this season.
The average score was NORTHWESTERN 58.0, OPPONENT 71.7.
-- FLORIDA is 14-2 UNDER (+11.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
The average score was FLORIDA 68.9, OPPONENT 58.1.
-- CREIGHTON is 0-8 against the 1rst half line (-8.8 Units) in road games versus excellent ball handling teams - committing <=12 turnovers/game after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was CREIGHTON 31.8, OPPONENT 34.3.
-- AUBURN is 11-1 UNDER (+9.9 Units) the 1rst half total versus good shooting teams - making >=45% of their shots after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was AUBURN 27.6, OPPONENT 31.5.
-- JIM BOEHEIM is 15-3 ATS (+11.7 Units) versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of >=45% after 15+ games as the coach of SYRACUSE.
The average score was BOEHEIM 81.2, OPPONENT 63.4.
•Situation Analysis of The Day
-- Play Against - Road underdogs with a money line of +135 to -155 (UCLA) - excellent shooting team (>=47.5%) against a good shooting team (45-47.5%), good ball handling team (<=14.5 TO's) against a poor pressure defensive team (<=14.5 TO's).
(206-55 since 1997.) (78.9%, +107.5 units. Rating = 4*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -179
The average score in these games was: Team 72.5, Opponent 65.3 (Average point differential = +7.3)
The situation's record this season is: (39-11, +16.7 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (77-23, +33.2 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (117-31, +59.9 units).
-- Play On - Road teams as a favorite or pick (DELAWARE) - average shooting team (42.5-45%) against a poor shooting team (40-42.5%) after 15+ games, after a game where a team made 20% of their 3 point shots or worse.
(56-21 since 1997.) (72.7%, +32.9 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (63-15)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 4.3
The average score in these games was: Team 69.7, Opponent 60.8 (Average point differential = +8.9)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 30 (42.3% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (2-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (16-3).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (23-9).
-- Play Against - Home favorites of 10 to 19.5 points (FLORIDA) – an average 3PT shooting team (32-36.5%) against a poor 3PT defense (>=36.5%) after 15+ games, good ball handling team (<=14.5 TO's) against a poor pressure defense (<=14.5 TO's) after 15+ games.
(71-30 over the last 5 seasons.) (70.3%, +38.4 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (12-94 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 13.4
The average score in these games was: Team 62.4, Opponent 72.4 (Average point differential = -10)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 29 (27.9% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (17-7).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (44-23).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (144-95).
-- Play Under - All teams where the total is between 130 and 139.5 points (CINCINNATI) - in a game involving two average shooting teams (42.5-45%) after 15+ games, in a game involving two good rebounding teams (+3 to +6 reb/game) after 15+ games.
(50-14 over the last 5 seasons.) (78.1%, +34.6 units. Rating = 4*)
The average total posted in these games was: 134.7
The average score in these games was: Team 64.3, Opponent 64.3 (Total points scored = 128.7)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 38 (57.6% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (10-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (20-6).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (72-50).
-- Play Under - Home teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points (MONMOUTH) - an average offensive team (67-74 PPG) against an explosive offensive team (>=78 PPG), off an upset loss as a favorite, a bad team (20% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record.
(47-17 since 1997.) (73.4%, +28.3 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 144.2
The average score in these games was: Team 67.5, Opponent 70.8 (Total points scored = 138.2)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 29 (45.3% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (2-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (6-3).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (17-6).
-- Play On - Home favorites of 6 to 11 points versus the first half line (KANSAS ST) - a good defensive team (63-67 PPG) against a poor offensive team (63-67 PPG), after allowing 85 points or more against opponent after allowing 85 points or more 2 straight games.
(28-4 over the last 5 seasons.) (87.5%, +23.6 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Team favored by 4.4
The average first half score in these games was: Team 38.7, Opponent 28.6 (Average first half point differential = +10.1)
The situation's record this season is: (5-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (13-0).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (64-48).
-- Play On - Road teams where the 1rst half line is +1.5 to -1.5 (WM & MARY) - a bad pressure defensive team - forcing <=12 turnovers/game, off a home win scoring 85 or more points, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a team with a losing record.
(31-7 over the last 5 seasons.) (81.6%, +23.3 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Team favored by 0.5
The average first half score in these games was: Team 34.2, Opponent 29.3 (Average first half point differential = +4.9)
The situation's record this season is: (6-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (17-3).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (87-68).
-- Play Under - All teams where the first half total is 65.5 to 70.5 (EVANSVILLE) - an average offensive team (67-74 PPG) against an average defensive team (67-74 PPG), in a game involving two good free throw shooting teams (69-73%), after 2 straight games making 50% of their shots or better.
(48-13 over the last 5 seasons.) (78.7%, +33.7 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 67.8
The average first half score in these games was: Team 32.4, Opponent 30.8 (Total first half points scored = 63.2)
The situation's record this season is: (10-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (25-8).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (106-64).
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Wednesday's Match-ups
#733 NORTHWESTERN @ #734 OHIO ST
(TV: 7:00 PM EST, Big Ten Network - Line: Ohio State -14.5, Total: 117) - Ohio State used its strong defense over the weekend to avoid back-to-back losses and pull over .500 in the Big Ten. The 23rd-ranked Buckeyes will attempt to avoid a second straight home loss when they host struggling Northwestern on Wednesday. The Wildcats looked like they were making a move in the conference with four wins in five games before falling flat with a three-game slide.
Ohio State is among the nations leaders in points allowed on defense and held a third opponent to less than 40 points in Saturday’s 48-39 triumph at Illinois to help make up for a lackluster performance on the other end. Aaron Craft was the only player to score in double figures with 14 points while the Buckeyes shot 38.3 percent. Northwestern is not the type of team that can penetrate a strong defense like Ohio State, ranking among the lowest in the nation with an average of 60.7 points offensively.
•ABOUT NORTHWESTERN (12-14 SU, 9-16-0 ATS, 5-8 Big Ten): The Wildcats have scored more than 55 points once in the last four games - an 85-70 loss at Michigan State - and rank last in the Big Ten in scoring - more than five points fewer than the next-closest team. Drew Crawford leads the team in scoring at 15.6 points but is struggling to 40.7 percent from the field and went 1-for-15 from the floor in the 54-48 loss to Minnesota on Sunday. “Our margin for error in this league is very slim,” coach Chris Collins told reporters. “We’re going to play close games.... We need to find (ways), and I need to do a better job of helping guys manufacture points.”
•ABOUT OHIO STATE (20-6 SU, 13-12-0 ATS, 7-6 Big Ten): The Buckeyes manufactured just enough points on Sunday by giving plenty of time down the stretch to reserves Trey McDonald, Marc Loving and Amedeo Della Valle. Loving, in particular, drew praise from his teammates following the contest. “We’ve got five games left (in the regular season) and we need that from (Loving),” Craft told the Columbus Dispatch. “He can’t be inconsistent down the stretch.” Loving put up eight points in 16 minutes at Illinois after totaling three points in the previous six contests.
•PREGAME NOTES: The Buckeyes have taken eight straight in the series.... Craft is shooting 65.4 percent from the field over the last four games.... Wildcats G JerShon Cobb has scored more than 20 points in back-to-back games.... The Buckeyes are 10-22 versus the spread in home games versus poor shooting teams - making less than 42% of their shots since 1997.... Northwestern is 0-8 against the spread versus top caliber teams - outscoring their opponents by 12+ points/game this season.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, NORTHWESTERN covered the spread 518 times, while OHIO ST covered the spread 482 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, OHIO ST won the game straight up 885 times, while NORTHWESTERN won 104 times. In 1000 simulated games, 675 games went over the total, while 299 games went under the total. *EDGE against the total =OVER.
--In 1000 simulated games, NORTHWESTERN covered the first half line 567 times, while OHIO ST covered the first half line 433 times. *EDGE against first half line =NORTHWESTERN. In 1000 simulated games, 672 games went over first half total, while 290 games went under first half total. *EDGE against first half total =OVER.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--NORTHWESTERN is 16-11 against the spread versus OHIO ST since 1997.
--OHIO ST is 25-2 straight up against NORTHWESTERN since 1997.
--11 of 17 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--NORTHWESTERN is 14-12 versus the first half line when playing against OHIO ST since 1997.
--11 of 17 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Wildcats are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
--Under is 11-5 in the last 16 meetings.
--Underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
--Home team is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--Under is 9-1 in NW last 10 overall.
--Under is 20-8-1 in NW last 29 vs. Big Ten.
--Under is 6-1 in NW last 7 Wednesday games.
--OSU is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. Big Ten.
--OSU is 9-4 ATS in their last 13 Wed. games.
--Under is 5-1-1 in OSU last 7 Wednesday games.
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#735 BOSTON COLLEGE @ #736 SYRACUSE
(TV: 7:00 PM EST, ESPN2 - Line: Syracuse -14.5, Total: 132) - Fresh off back-to-back dramatic victories, Syracuse has proven - depending on your perspective - that it is virtually unbeatable, or perhaps that the top-ranked Orange are highly beatable. Syracuse hopes to remain undefeated - preferably with less late-game anxiety - when Jim Boeheim's squad hosts Boston College on Wednesday. The Orange defeated Pittsburgh last Wednesday on Tyler Ennis' 35-footer at the buzzer and snuck past North Carolina State on Saturday on a steal that led to C.J. Fair's transition layup with 6.7 seconds to play.
"This team has reacted well to every tough situation they've been in or put themselves in," Boeheim said, via Syracuse.com. "That's something they should be really given a lot of credit for." If it's possible for a team riding the longest winning streak in school history to have a flaw, it's the lack of a consistent offense for the Orange, as they have not scored more than 61 points in four straight games and rank 220th in the nation in points per game (70 per contest). Boston College, meanwhile, has lost eight of its last nine, a stretch that began with a hard-fought 69-59 loss to Syracuse on Jan. 13.
•ABOUT BOSTON COLLEGE (6-19 SU, 7-15-1 ATS, 2-10 ACC): The Eagles led the Orange by five points with about 10 minutes left in the first meeting but were ultimately done in by 10 missed free throws and 16 turnovers. Olivier Hanlan, who shot just 2-of-7 in the first matchup, leads the team with 18.2 points and has hit 46 3-pointers, tying Lonnie Jackson for the team lead. Second-leading scorer Ryan Anderson (14.8 points, 7.1 rebounds) has filled up the stat sheet - in all the right ways - over the last two games, totaling 24 points, 14 rebounds, seven assists, six steals and zero turnovers.
•ABOUT SYRACUSE (25-0 SU, 13-7-1 ATS, 12-0 ACC): Since scoring a career-high 28 points in an overtime win over Duke on Feb. 1, Fair has averaged just 12.5 points on 37.5 percent shooting over his last four outings. The Orange are a thin team - often using only six players without center Baye Moussa Keita (knee) - but the senior big man may return to the lineup against the Eagles. Jerami Grant (12 points, 14 rebounds) and Rakeem Christmas (14 points, 12 rebounds, seven blocks) each came up big against North Carolina State and must stay out of foul trouble again versus Boston College.
•PREGAME NOTES: Fair is 2-of-10 from long range over his last four games and is shooting 27.5 percent on the season - well below his 3-point percentage from last season (46.9).... Syracuse PG Tyler Ennis committed four turnovers against the Wolfpack - just his second game with more than two turnovers this season.... Since shooting 4-of-15 from 3-point range over his first 12 games, Anderson has not attempted a single shot from behind the arc.... Syracuse is 9-23 against the spread in home games versus good free throw shooting teams - making more than 72% of their attempts after 15+ games since 1997.... The Eagles are 5-12 versus the spread when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, SYRACUSE covered the spread 532 times, while BOSTON COLLEGE covered the spread 468 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, SYRACUSE won the game straight up 876 times, while BOSTON COLLEGE won 107 times. In 1000 simulated games, 762 games went over the total, while 218 games went under the total. *EDGE against the total =OVER.
--In 1000 simulated games, BOSTON COLLEGE covered the first half line 536 times, while SYRACUSE covered the first half line 464 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 736 games went over first half total, while 264 games went under first half total. *EDGE against first half total =OVER.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--SYRACUSE is 7-5 against the spread versus BOSTON COLLEGE since 1997.
--SYRACUSE is 8-4 straight up against BOSTON COLLEGE since 1997.
--4 of 6 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--SYRACUSE is 8-4 versus the first half line when playing against BOSTON COLLEGE since 1997.
--4 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.
--Road team is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--BC is 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.
--BC is 7-16-1 ATS in their last 24 games overall.
--Over is 5-0 in BC last 5 vs. Atlantic Coast.
--SYR is 13-5-1 ATS in their last 19 games overall.
--Under is 7-1 in SYR last 8 home games.
--Under is 12-3-1 in SYR last 16 overall.
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#737 AUBURN @ #738 FLORIDA
(TV: 7:00 PM SunSports (Florida), ESPN3 - Line: Florida -17, Total: 136) - Florida has vaulted to No. 2 in the national rankings and is closing in on a top seed in the NCAA Tournament, but the Gators must be wary of a letdown when they host Auburn in an SEC matchup on Wednesday. Florida extended its winning streak to 17 and opened a three-game lead atop the SEC with a come-from-behind victory at Kentucky on Saturday. The Gators held off a second-half comeback to win at Auburn last month and improve to 16-1 in the last 17 meetings against the Tigers.
Auburn guard Chris Denson, who leads the conference in scoring at 20.9 points per game, called Florida "the best defensive club I've ever seen" following the 68-61 defeat Jan. 18. The Tigers rebounded from a narrow loss to Kentucky by matching a season-high point total in Saturday's 92-82 victory over Mississippi State to improve to 4-2 following a six-game skid. Auburn has lost in its last eight visits to Florida and is looking to win in Gainesville for the first time since Feb. 10, 1996.
•ABOUT AUBURN (12-11 SU, 10-9-0 ATS, 4-8 SEC): The Tigers rely on the backcourt duo of SEC leading scorer Chris Denson and KT Harrell, who are averaging 40.1 points and combined to score 56 in the win over Mississippi State. Harrell, who knocked down four 3-pointers and had 18 points in the first meeting with Florida, rebounded from a season-worst seven-point performance versus Kentucky to score 26 on Saturday. "I know I had a bad game, but it's not about one game defining you," Harrell told reporters. "It's about how you bounce back that defines you."
•ABOUT FLORIDA (23-2 SU, 11-9-1 ATS, 12-0 SEC): Senior point guard Scottie Wilbekin opened the season on suspension but is making up for lost time, averaging 19.8 points over his last four games. Wilbekin earned SEC Player of the Week honors after scoring a career-high 21 points in a victory at Tennessee on Feb. 11 and eclipsing that mark with 23 points in the win over Kentucky. Wilbekin, who on Monday was named a finalist for the Cousy Award, given to the nation's top point guard, did not commit a turnover and was 21-of-24 from the free-throw line in the past two contests.
•PREGAME NOTES: The Gators are seeking a school-record 18th straight win. They have won 17 in a row on three previous occasions.... Auburn is 2-23 against teams ranked No. 1 or 2, the last win coming over top-ranked Kentucky in 1988.... Florida's 29-game home winning streak is the third-longest active run in the nation.... Auburn is 38-15 Over in road games versus good ball handling teams - committing less than 14 turnovers/game after 15+ games since 1997.... Florida is 17-6 Under versus good ball handling teams - committing less than 14 turnovers/game after 15+ games over the last two seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, AUBURN covered the spread 564 times, while FLORIDA covered the spread 403 times. *EDGE against the spread =AUBURN. In 1000 simulated games, FLORIDA won the game straight up 873 times, while AUBURN won 110 times. In 1000 simulated games, 608 games went over the total, while 356 games went under the total. *EDGE against the total =OVER.
--In 1000 simulated games, AUBURN covered the first half line 619 times, while FLORIDA covered the first half line 381 times. *EDGE against first half line =AUBURN. In 1000 simulated games, 609 games went over first half total, while 391 games went under first half total. *EDGE against first half total =OVER.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--FLORIDA is 13-9 against the spread versus AUBURN since 1997.
--FLORIDA is 19-3 straight up against AUBURN since 1997.
--8 of 16 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--AUBURN is 12-10 versus the first half line when playing against FLORIDA since 1997.
--9 of 17 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Tigers are 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
--Underdog is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--AUB is 1-7 ATS in their last 8 Wed. games.
--AUB is 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games.
--Over is 7-1 in AUB last 8 Wed. games.
--Under is 25-8-1 in FLA last 34 overall.
--Under is 18-7-1 in FLA last 26 home games.
--Under is 16-4-1 in FLA last 21 vs. Southeastern.
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#739 SAINT LOUIS @ #740 GEORGE MASON
(TV: 7:00 PM EST, NBC Sports Network - Line: Saint Louis -7.5, Total: 134) - Tenth-ranked Saint Louis will put several streaks on the line when the Atlantic 10 Conference leader visits George Mason on Wednesday. The Billikens are riding a school-record 17-game win streak, are undefeated in road games and can tie the school record for best league start with a win against the Patriots. It hasn't been easy for the defensive-minded Billikens, who won their past two games by a total of four points and needed overtime to beat the Patriots on Feb. 1.
The last-place Patriots had a two-game win streak snapped Saturday but could give Saint Louis another run. George Mason's offense - ranked fourth in the conference in scoring (74.6) and second in field-goal percentage (47.3) - will face a Billikens' defense that tops the league and is ranked ninth nationally in points allowed (58.9). Patriot sharpshooter Patrick Holloway (43.1 percent from the 3-point line) will try to get free against the nation's second-best 3-point defense.
•ABOUT SAINT LOUIS (23-2 SU, 9-13-0 ATS, 10-0 A-10): Dwayne Evans leads the defending conference champion with 14.8 points and 6.5 rebounds. Jordair Jett adds 13.2 points and is second in the A-10 with 4.9 assists. Evans, Jett and Mike McCall Jr. each have at least 34 steals while the Billikens allow opponents to shoot 38.9 percent from the floor and 26.7 percent from the arc.
•ABOUT GEORGE MASON (9-16 SU, 9-13-0 ATS, 2-9 A-10): Bryon Allen (15.8 points) and Sherrod Wright (14.8) lead the Patriots, who have lost five straight home games. Holloway chips in 9.1 points off the bench and Jalen Jenkins adds 7.1 points and a team-high 6.1 rebounds. Allen, Wright and Jenkins - who didn't become a regular starter until conference play - have all raised their scoring averages during A-10 action and the Patriots are averaging eight more points than in non-conference play.
•PREGAME NOTES: Saint Louis is tied with Florida for the fourth-longest active winning streak in the country, trailing Wichita State (27), Syracuse (25) and Stephen F. Austin (21).... The Billikens (9-0) join Wichita State (10-0) and Syracuse (6-0) as the only teams undefeated in true road games.... The Patriots haven't lost six straight home games since the 1994-95 season.... Saint Louis is 11-3 Under versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing less than 14 turnovers/game this season.... George Mason is 2-13 versus the spread in home games versus good ball handling teams - committing less than 14 turnovers/game over the last two seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, GEORGE MASON covered the spread 504 times, while SAINT LOUIS covered the spread 496 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, SAINT LOUIS won the game straight up 690 times, while GEORGE MASON won 284 times. In 1000 simulated games, 489 games went over the total, while 484 games went under the total. *No EDGE.
--In 1000 simulated games, GEORGE MASON covered the first half line 483 times, while SAINT LOUIS covered the first half line 474 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 569 games went over first half total, while 431 games went under first half total. *EDGE against first half total =OVER.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--GEORGE MASON is 1-0 against the spread versus SAINT LOUIS since 1997.
--SAINT LOUIS is 1-0 straight up against GEORGE MASON since 1997.
--1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--GEORGE MASON is 1-0 versus the first half line when playing against SAINT LOUIS since 1997.
--1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
•RECENT TRENDS
--Under is 8-1 in SLU last 9 road games.
--Under is 20-7 in SLU last 27 overall.
--Under is 11-3 in SLU last 14 vs. Atlantic 10.
--GMU is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 Wed. games.
--GMU is 5-17 ATS in their last 22 home games.
--Over is 5-1 in GMU last 6 vs. Atlantic 10.
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#743 CINCINNATI @ #744 UCF
(TV: 7:00 PM EST, ESPNU - Line: Cincinnati -6.5, Total: 131) - It does not take long looking at the American Athletic Conference rankings to find Sean Kilpatrick’s name. Ninth-ranked Cincinnati travels to Central Florida on Wednesday and its senior leader will look to continue a season that finds Kilpatrick atop the conference in scoring and made 3-pointers. Central Florida will have its hands full with the top team in the league, but the Knights come in after snapping a nine-game losing streak in Saturday’s 75-74 victory over South Florida.
Isaiah Sykes scored the game-winning layup for Central Florida and the Knights got 13 points from AAC rookie of the week Justin McBride. The Bearcats won the previous matchup with Central Florida, forcing six turnovers in the opening minutes of the second half en route to a 69-51 home victory on Jan. 23. The Bearcats have won 16 of their past 17 games, rebounding from having their 15-game winning streak halted by SMU with a 73-62 victory Saturday against Houston.
•ABOUT CINCINNATI (23-3 SU, 10-10-0 ATS, 12-1 AAC): The Bearcats already have clinched a bye through the first round of the inaugural AAC tournament next month, sparked by Kilpatrick’s 20.1 points and 69 made 3-pointers in 26 games. Senior Justin Jackson averages 3.1 blocks per game, tops in the conference and 13th nationally. The Bearcats hold opponents to 57.7 points per contest, fifth nationally, but have allowed an average of 69 points in their past two games.
•ABOUT CENTRAL FLORIDA (10-13 SU, 5-12-0 ATS, 2-10 AAC): The Knights lead the conference in rebounding at 38.5 boards per contest, but have been unable to translate that into victories thanks to shooting 40.6 percent from the field in league action. Sykes is fifth in the AAC in scoring at 18.1 and third in rebounding at eight per contest. McBride, a 6-10, 310-pound center who did not score in his first four games of the season after recovering from a knee injury, has 32 points in his past three games.
•PREGAME NOTES: Kilpatrick and Jackson combined for 32 of Cincinnati’s 44 second-half points Saturday.... Sykes shot 2-for-12 in the first matchup with Cincinnati, finishing with nine points.... After facing the Knights, Cincinnati plays three consecutive ranked opponents in fifth-ranked Louisville, 21st-ranked Connecticut and No. 24 Memphis.... The Knights are 0-6 versus the spread in home games versus good ball handling teams - committing less than 14 turnovers/game this season.... The Bearcats are 5-17 against the spread versus good ball handling teams - committing less than 14 turnovers/game after 15+ games over the last two seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, CINCINNATI covered the spread 532 times, while UCF covered the spread 468 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, CINCINNATI won the game straight up 713 times, while UCF won 251 times. In 1000 simulated games, 626 games went over the total, while 352 games went under the total. *EDGE against the total =OVER.
--In 1000 simulated games, UCF covered the first half line 513 times, while CINCINNATI covered the first half line 487 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 620 games went over first half total, while 339 games went under first half total. *EDGE against first half total =OVER.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--CINCINNATI is 1-0 against the spread versus UCF since 1997.
--CINCINNATI is 1-0 straight up against UCF since 1997.
--1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--UCF is 1-0 versus the first half line when playing against CINCINNATI since 1997.
--1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
•RECENT TRENDS
--CIN is 3-12 ATS in their last 15 road games.
--Under is 40-11 in CIN last 51 overall.
--Under is 14-5 in CIN last 19 road games.
--UCF is 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 home games.
--UCF is 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games overall.
--Over is 4-1 in UCF last 5 vs. American Athletic Conference.
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#755 CREIGHTON @ #756 MARQUETTE
(TV: 8:00 PM EST, Fox Sports 1 - Line: Creighton -3, Total: 143) - Fresh off a statement win in a showdown for first place in the Big East Conference, Creighton hopes to keep the momentum going when it visits Marquette on Wednesday night. The 12th-ranked Bluejays moved atop the league standings on Sunday by bludgeoning then-No. 6 Villanova for the second time in less than a month behind a season high-tying 39 points from Doug McDermott. “I think he’s as good a (college) basketball player as I’ve ever seen,” Villanova coach Jay Wright said of McDermott. “There’s nothing he can’t do."
Marquette lost at Creighton 67-49 on New Year's Eve but carries a season-high three-game winning streak into the rematch. The Golden Eagles have won four of their last five and only a pair of overtime losses last month is keeping them from knocking on the door for an NCAA Tournament berth. Marquette has advanced to the NCAAs for eight consecutive seasons - the sixth-longest active streak nationally - and is among four programs to reach the regional semifinals in each of the last three seasons.
•ABOUT CREIGHTON (21-4 SU, 14-9-0 ATS, 11-2 Big East): McDermott leads the nation in scoring at 25.9 points per game and is etching his name alongside a Who's Who of all-time greats. McDermott (2,863 points), who was named Big East player of the week for a league-record seventh time, surpassed Larry Bird for 13th place on the NCAA career list and is 22 points shy of eclipsing Tyler Hansbrough (2,872) and Elvin Hayes (2,884). Guard Jahenns Manigat scored 16 points in the win over Marquette on Dec. 31, but he was held scoreless against Villanova and is averaging only 4.8 points in his last five games.
•ABOUT MARQUETTE (15-10 SU, 10-12-1 ATS, 7-5 Big East): Coach Buzz Williams has played musical chairs with his starting lineup for much of the season, but moving leading scorer Davante Gardner back to the bench has paid off in the recent hot stretch. Gardner has turned in consecutive 16-point outings in a reserve role and taken advantage of his bruising 290-pound frame in those games, going to the free-throw line 21 times and missing only once. Second-leading scorer Jamil Wilson is also on a tear, averaging 19.3 points in the three-game win streak after being held to one point in a loss at St. John's on Feb. 1.
•PREGAME NOTES: Creighton is 22-1 when McDermott scores at least 30 points, including 8-1 this season.... Marquette G Derrick Wilson had a career-high six steals in Saturday's win over Xavier - the third time in five games he has at least four thefts.... Creighton averages a Big East-best 80.8 points while Marquette allows a conference-low 65.4.... The Golden Eagles are 12-3 against the spread in home games versus good defensive teams - shooting percent defense of less than 42% after 15+ games over the last three seasons.... The Bluejays are 6-0 versus the spread after two straight games making 78% of their free throws or better this season.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, CREIGHTON covered the spread 616 times, while MARQUETTE covered the spread 356 times. *EDGE against the spread CREIGHTON. In 1000 simulated games, CREIGHTON won the game straight up 690 times, while MARQUETTE won 282 times. In 1000 simulated games, 619 games went over the total, while 347 games went under the total. *EDGE against the total =OVER.
--In 1000 simulated games, CREIGHTON covered the first half line 575 times, while MARQUETTE covered the first half line 425 times. *EDGE against first half line =CREIGHTON. In 1000 simulated games, 629 games went over first half total, while 332 games went under first half total. *EDGE against first half total =OVER.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--MARQUETTE is 1-1 against the spread versus CREIGHTON since 1997.
--MARQUETTE is 1-1 straight up against CREIGHTON since 1997.
--1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--CREIGHTON is 2-0 versus the first half line when playing against MARQUETTE since 1997.
--1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
•RECENT TRENDS
--CRE is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. Big East.
--CRE is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Wednesday games.
--Under is 18-7-1 in CRE last 26 road games.
--MARQ is 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. Big East.
--Over is 3-0-1 in MARQ last 4 overall.
--Over is 3-0-1 in MARQ last 4 vs. Big East.
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#757 WICHITA ST @ #758 LOYOLA-IL
(TV: 8:00 PM EST, KS22 (Wichita State), ESPN3 - Line: Wichita State -12, Total: 129) - Third-ranked Wichita State continues its pursuit of an undefeated regular season when it travels to Chicago and faces Missouri Valley Conference foe Loyola on Wednesday. The Shockers are the 21st team in NCAA history to win their first 27 games and have four regular-season contests remaining as they prepare to meet the Ramblers, a team they beat 57-45 last month in Wichita. Loyola is struggling and has lost five of its last six games.
Wichita State is 14-0 in conference play for the first time in school history after defeating Evansville 84-68 on Sunday. The Shockers are one of two undefeated teams in the nation – top-ranked Syracuse is the other – and primed to make a push for a second consecutive Final Four appearance. Loyola has scored 62 or fewer points in four of its last six games and the 45 it scored against Wichita State on Jan. 28 remains a season low.
•ABOUT WICHITA STATE (27-0 SU, 17-6-1 ATS, 14-0 Missouri Valley): Guard Ron Baker scored a career-high 26 points in the win over Evansville and was named the conference’s Player of the Week after averaging 22.5 points and shooting 17-of-29 in two games. Baker ranks second on the team in scoring (13.4), assists (3.1) and steals (46) and blends well with point guard Fred VanVleet (11.9 points, 5.2 assists, 55 steals). Forward Cleanthony Early leads the Shockers in scoring (16.2) and rebounding (6.3) and scored 23 points in the earlier victory over Loyola.
•ABOUT LOYOLA-CHICAGO (9-17 SU, 9-14-1 ATS, 4-10 Missouri Valley): The Ramblers shot just 35.3 percent from the field, went 3-of-16 from 3-point range and missed six of 12 free throws in the recent loss to the Shockers. Guard Milton Doyle was the lone player to reach double digits that night with 16 points and the freshman is having a solid campaign by leading Loyola in scoring (15.8) and steals (30). Forward Christian Thomas contributes 13.7 points and 6.5 rebounds and guard Jeff White averages 10.2 points per game.
•PREGAME NOTES: Wichita State has won the last four meetings and owns a 12-4 edge in the series.... Doyle had 16 points and a season-best 10 rebounds for his first career double-double in Saturday’s 70-62 loss to Drake.... Early is averaging 18 points over the last eight games.... The Shockers are 14-6 against the spread versus good ball handling teams - committing less than 14 turnovers/game this season.... The Ramblers are 16-30 versus the spread in home games versus good defensive teams - shooting percent defense of less than 42% since 1997.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, LOYOLA-IL covered the spread 513 times, while WICHITA ST covered the spread 453 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, WICHITA ST won the game straight up 792 times, while LOYOLA-IL won 180 times. In 1000 simulated games, 700 games went over the total, while 273 games went under the total. *EDGE against the total =OVER.
--In 1000 simulated games, LOYOLA-IL covered the first half line 541 times, while WICHITA ST covered the first half line 419 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 669 games went over first half total, while 295 games went under first half total. *EDGE against first half total =OVER.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--LOYOLA-IL is 1-0 against the spread versus WICHITA ST since 1997.
--WICHITA ST is 1-0 straight up against LOYOLA-IL since 1997.
--1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--WICHITA ST is 1-0 versus the first half line when playing against LOYOLA-IL since 1997.
--1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
•RECENT TRENDS
--WICH is 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 Wed. games.
--WICH is 22-6-1 ATS in their last 29 games overall.
--Under is 8-0 in WICH last 8 Wed. games.
--Over is 17-5 in L-IL last 22 home games.
--Under is 14-6 in L-IL last 20 Wed. games.
--Over is 4-1 in L-IL last 5 vs. Missouri Valley.
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#777 ARIZONA @ #778 UTAH
(TV: 10:00 PM EST, Fox Sports 1 - Line: Arizona -4.5, Total: 129.5) - Arizona remains poised to receive a top seed in the NCAA Tournament, but the fourth-ranked Wildcats definitely are vulnerable heading into Wednesday’s game at Utah. The Wildcats have dropped two of their last four games since losing starting forward Brandon Ashley to a season-ending foot injury on Feb. 1, and star guard Nick Johnson’s shooting slump has coincided with Ashley’s absence. Johnson is shooting 23 percent from the field over the last four games, including 2-of-24 from 3-point range.
While Arizona holds a one-game lead over UCLA in the Pac-12, Utah is in a seventh-place tie with Washington and looking to strengthen its NCAA Tournament chances. “For us, it’s like the postseason is kind of starting right now,” Utes coach Larry Krystkowiak told the Deseret News. “You need to just be dialed in and get in that mind set.” The Utes lost 65-56 at Arizona on Jan. 26, but they’re eager for the rematch at home, where they’ve won 19 of their last 21 games dating back to last season.
•ABOUT ARIZONA (23-2 SU, 14-10-0 ATS, 10-2 Pac-12): Look for more reserves to get involved against Utah after coach Sean Miller relied heavily on his starters in last Friday’s 69-66 double-overtime loss at Arizona State. “For us to win the most games this year, I think our biggest upside lies in trusting Jordin Mayes, Elliott Pitts, Gabe York a little bit more, throwing Matt Korcheck in there and taking some minutes away from the players that are playing,” Miller told reporters. Freshman forward Rondae Hollis-Jefferson has stepped up with Ashley out, averaging 13 points and 7.7 rebounds over the last three games.
•ABOUT UTAH (17-8 SU, 14-5-1 ATS, 6-7 Pac-12): The Utes are looking to bounce back from an 80-66 loss at UCLA on Saturday, when starters Jordan Loveridge, Brandon Taylor and Dakarai Tucker were held to a combined 20 points and seven rebounds. Guard Delon Wright, who scored a team-high 19 points in last month’s loss to the Wildcats, ranks among the top 15 nationally in field-goal percentage (59.7) and steals (2.8). Loveridge averages a team-high 7.6 rebounds for the Utes, who were outrebounded 40-29 by the Wildcats last month.
•PREGAME NOTES: Utah is shooting 76.1 percent from the foul line in Pac-12 play, while Arizona ranks last in the conference at 64.1 percent.... Johnson is averaging 12.4 points in five career games against Utah after scoring 22 in last month’s win.... Arizona leads the Pac-12 with a rebounding margin of plus-6.2 in league play.... Utah is 25-12 versus the spread when playing against a team with a winning record over the last two seasons, including 11-0 ATS when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 80%).... The Wildcats are 8-18 against the spread when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) after 15 or more games over the last three seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, UTAH covered the spread 557 times, while ARIZONA covered the spread 443 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, ARIZONA won the game straight up 575 times, while UTAH won 391 times. In 1000 simulated games, 718 games went over the total, while 282 games went under the total. *EDGE against the total =OVER.
--In 1000 simulated games, UTAH covered the first half line 532 times, while ARIZONA covered the first half line 468 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 672 games went over first half total, while 328 games went under first half total. *EDGE against first half total =OVER.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--UTAH is 6-3 against the spread versus ARIZONA since 1997.
--ARIZONA is 8-1 straight up against UTAH since 1997.
--3 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--UTAH is 6-3 versus the first half line when playing against ARIZONA since 1997.
--3 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Wildcats are 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
--Underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
--Road team is 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--ARIZ is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 vs. Pacific-12.
--Under is 39-16-2 in ARIZ last 57 overall.
--Under is 15-5-1 in ARIZ last 21 vs. Pacific-12.
--UTAH is 21-6-1 ATS in their last 28 home games.
--UTAH is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Wednesday games.
--Over is 4-1 in UTAH last 5 vs. Pacific-12.
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#779 UCLA @ #780 CALIFORNIA
(TV: 10:30 PM EST, Pac-12 Network - Line: California -1.5, Total: 148) - With Arizona suddenly struggling, three straight wins have catapulted No. 25 UCLA back into the Pac-12 Conference hunt and the national rankings. The Bruins have won six of their last seven games and look to gain even more ground in the race when they visit California on Wednesday. UCLA never trailed in defeating California 76-64 in their first meeting of the season.
California was the first team to knock off the then-No. 1 Wildcats this season and could move into a tie for second place in the conference with a victory this evening over UCLA. The Golden Bears have won two straight overall with an 80-76 triumph over Washington State along with a 72-59 blowout versus Washington, and are 11-2 at home this campaign. They've also beaten UCLA three straight times at home.
•ABOUT UCLA (20-5 SU, 16-8-0 ATS, 9-3 Pac-12): Although the Bruins started the season 8-0, coach Steve Alford warned his team how important it is to finish strong. “A lot of times, November wins get forgotten,” Alford said. “It’s what you do the month of February.” Projected by some as a No. 6 or 7 seed in the NCAA Tournament, UCLA continues to lead the conference in scoring and is 11th in the nation with an average of 83.1 points.
•ABOUT CALIFORNIA (17-8 SU, 12-12-0 ATS, 8-4 Pac-12): The Golden Bears are relying on experience in their drive toward an NCAA berth. All four returning starters average in double figures - Justin Cobbs (16 points), Tyrone Wallace (12.1), Richard Solomon (11.8) and David Kravish (11.6). Solomon is one of three players in the nation to average a double-double.
•PREGAME NOTES: Cobbs, whose last-second shot beat Arizona, has been selected as finalist for the nation's top point guard award.... UCLA ranks 13th in the RPI, while California is 43rd.... Solomon is 11th in the nation in rebounding.... The Bruins are 5-15 against the spread in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) over the last three seasons.... California is 52-33 versus the spread in home games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) since 1997.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, UCLA covered the spread 602 times, while CALIFORNIA covered the spread 398 times. *EDGE against the spread =UCLA. In 1000 simulated games, UCLA won the game straight up 533 times, while CALIFORNIA won 433 times. In 1000 simulated games, 610 games went over the total, while 366 games went under the total. *EDGE against the total =OVER.
--In 1000 simulated games, UCLA covered the first half line 574 times, while CALIFORNIA covered the first half line 388 times. *EDGE against first half line =UCLA. In 1000 simulated games, 621 games went over first half total, while 379 games went under first half total. *EDGE against first half total =OVER.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--CALIFORNIA is 22-16 against the spread versus UCLA since 1997.
--UCLA is 22-16 straight up against CALIFORNIA since 1997.
--17 of 30 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--CALIFORNIA is 22-15 versus the first half line when playing against UCLA since 1997.
--22 of 31 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Bruins are 2-7 ATS in the last 9 meetings.
--Bruins are 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings in California.
--Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in California.
--Favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
--Home team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--UCLA is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. Pacific-12.
--Over is 13-5 in UCLA last 18 Wed. games.
--Under is 17-5-1 in UCLA last 23 road games.
--CAL is 3-14 ATS in their last 17 Wed. games.
--CAL is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 vs. Pacific-12.
--Over is 4-0 in CAL last 4 Wednesday games.
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