NBA Northwest Division Analysis
By Joe Nelson
Take a look at the five teams in the Western Conference Northwest Division as we approach the second half of the season. Here is a breakdown of the results and spread results for each team in the Northwest division and a look at what situations may be favorable moving forward for each squad.
In the loaded Western Conference, the Northwest only features two viable playoff contenders and compared with the rest of the conference, the Northwest has been the weakest and most disappointing division. Portland has a huge lead in the division at the break, but Oklahoma City is certainly a team that is poised to make a run after the slow injury-plagued first month. While the rest of the division features three lottery-bound teams, there have been opportunities for those teams to play well and at least two of those squads look like potential play-on teams the rest of the way.
Portland Trail Blazers: At the break, Portland is the #3 seed in the Western Conference at 36-17, but there is fine line between the #3 and #7 spots in the Western Conference with five teams sitting just two games apart. The Blazers slumped into the break with losses in nine of the last 15 games to surrender a lot of ground in the conference race as at one point, Portland looked like a team that could challenge Golden State for the best record in the conference. The overall schedule has been relatively weak for Portland and the Blazers only have six wins against teams considered in the top 10 of the league, the second-fewest among the teams in that top 10 grouping at the moment.
The Blazers are just 13-12 S/U on the road this season, but they have one of the best division records in the NBA at 7-1 S/U. The Blazers are 2-0 against Oklahoma City this season with two meetings to go which could be a key edge in a race that most expect will tighten down the stretch. Portland is on a 5-10 ATS run to melt away what was once a great spread record as the Blazers are now 27-25-1 ATS at the All Star break, with a slight winning mark at home and a slight losing mark on the road. Portland is 9-7 ATS as an underdog this season including winning both instances as a home underdog while compiling a 23-5 S/U record at home. The ‘under’ has been the best bet in Portland home games going 19-9 on the season.
Oklahoma City Thunder: At the All Star break, Oklahoma City is the first team on the outside of the Western Conference playoff picture, sitting a half game behind the Suns and a game ahead of New Orleans in what figures to be a three-team race down the stretch. Oklahoma City has by far the best average point differential of those teams and the Thunder has the strongest home court edge going 16-8 S/U at home this season. The Thunder has played a top six schedule at this point in the season and obviously much of the losing occurred early in the season with a short-handed roster. Oklahoma City has not fared well against top competition, going 4-13 S/U vs. the top 10 and 11-18 S/U vs. the top 16 in the league at this point in the season despite most, including Kevin Durant, still feel like this team is a legitimate contender to make a deep playoff run.
After starting the season 3-12 S/U though 7-7-1 ATS, the Thunder have made an incredible turnaround. With that success has come steep pricing as Oklahoma City has been a tough team to support, riding a 10-18 ATS run since mid-December. On the season, the ‘under’ is leading the way for the Thunder as well at 30-21-2 on the season. Oklahoma City is just 12-17 S/U and 10-18-1 ATS on the road this season, really burning backers in the road underdog role that has been very successful for most teams this season. Oklahoma City is 4-11-1 ATS as a road underdog this season, while blindly backing road underdogs in the NBA has connected at an over 53 percent clip before the All Star break. Oklahoma City is a perfect 5-0 ATS this season as a home underdog, though it is worth noting that all five of those covers came in November.
Denver Nuggets: Denver head coach Brian Shaw appears to be on a growing hot seat as the Nuggets are a big disappointment this season at 20-33, including 20-29-4 ATS at the break. After losing seven of the first nine games, Denver made a quick turnaround in November to enter December at .500, but since mid-January, the Nuggets have been on a free fall, losing 13 of the final 15 games before the break with only four covers in that span. It was not long ago that Denver was one of the toughest places in the league to play, but the Nuggets are 12-14 S/U at home, going 10-14-2 ATS at the Pepsi Center. There are losing marks pretty much across the board for the Nuggets in any breakdown expect for Denver being 4-1 ATS this season as a double-digit underdog, a situation Denver may be in more often in the coming weeks if the losses keep piling up. Into the break, the Nuggets have lost S/U in each of the last six home games and this is a team that is 8-19 S/U on the road this season, going 10-15-2 ATS. The ‘under’ has been successful in Denver road games as well at 15-9-3, including a 6-1-2 run before the All Star break. It has been a relatively tough schedule for the Nuggets at this point in the season and there could be some opportunities to improve in record in the upcoming weeks, but a rally back into the playoff race certainly seems unlikely.
Utah Jazz: If you want to dig really deep for a sleeper to make a run at the playoffs, the Jazz have some reasons to suggest a strong finish could be on the way. Utah is nearly 10 games behind the Suns for the final spot in the Western Conference, but this is a team with an average point differential of only -2.4 per game and that is through a schedule that rates as the second-toughest in the NBA at this point. Utah is just 4-19 S/U vs. the top 10 teams in the league, but the good news is that most of those games are out of the way and outside of a tough first two games after the break, the late February and March schedule looks pretty attractive for the Jazz. Utah has been a slight ATS winner this season at 28-24-1 ATS, finding success on the road at 16-11-1 ATS and as an underdog at 23-19-1 ATS.
Utah enters the break on an 18-11-1 ATS run going back to mid-December and this is a team that has leaned to the ‘under’ with the ‘under’ in Jazz games going 30-22-1 this season. The home court for the Jazz is starting to look a bit tougher as well with Utah covering in five of the final seven home games before the break, featuring four S/U wins including a big upset over Golden State. Utah is just 7-8 ATS this season as a home underdog at this point in the season. Thirteen of the past 15 foes in Salt Lake City have been held to 100 or fewer points as Utah and the ‘under’ have been finding more success at EnergySolutions Arena with improved defensive play. It would take an epic run for Utah to climb back into the race, but for what it is worth, the Jazz look like one of the best of the lottery teams and a team that could be somewhat of a surprise team in the second half even with little to play for.
Minnesota Timberwolves: The Wolves started the season 2-2 with the losses coming in tight games with Memphis and Chicago as this looked like a promising team that might surprise. Injuries derailed the squad quickly and Minnesota has spent most of the season as one of the worst teams in the league, clearly shifting to the youth movement and looking to the future. Just before the break, Minnesota surprised with wins in three of the final five games with the two losses coming in competitive games with the two conference leaders. The Wolves certainly did not have an All Star this season, but it was a bit of showcase weekend with Andrew Wiggins taking the MVP in the Futures game and Zach LaVine winning the Slam Dunk contest with two Minnesota rookies on display.
At 11-42 S/U on the season, Minnesota will be in a good position to land another high profile rookie in the draft this summer and Minnesota is just 23-29-1 ATS on the season even with a recent surge, going 17-11 ATS since Christmas. It is a little hard to believe that Minnesota has been a favorite seven times this season, going 2-5 ATS and the Wolves are just 10-16 ATS at home even with some hefty underdog pricing at times. This has been one of the few clear ‘over’ teams in the league with the ‘over’ 30-23 on the season though that has been less conclusive in the last month with Minnesota playing more competitive ball overall. Minnesota is 10-3 ATS since Christmas in road games taking advantage of big spreads in many of those games as they have only five S/U road wins all season. The edge for the ‘over’ in Wolves games has almost been exclusively away from the Target Center as well. It has been a challenging season for a franchise that has had very little success in its history, but the second half schedule is a bit more promising and Minnesota’s young squad could emerge as a play-on team in many situations as there is some exciting young talent on the roster.
