Big Ten Bowl Report - Part 1
By ASA
Big Ten Bowl Games scheduled between Dec. 26 and Dec. 30
Illinois (+6, 61.5) vs. Louisiana Tech
Zaxby's Heart of Dallas Bowl
Friday, Dec. 26 – 1:00 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Cotton Bowl, Dallas, TX
After starting 1-5 in B1G play, the Illini won their final two games of the season to become bowl eligible, both upsets (win over Penn State as a five-point underdog and win over Northwestern as a 7.5-point underdog). They’re tabbed as a six-point underdog here in their first bowl appearance since 2011. Illinois faces a tough decision at quarterback for this game. Wes Lunt led the team with 14 TD passes and just 3 INT, but he was injured midway through the season and when he returned, he wasn’t as effective as he was pre-injury. Reilly O’Toole, more of a dual-threat, led the team to wins against Minnesota, Penn State, and Northwestern. Coaches haven’t indicated which player will start this game, but it’s a safe assumption that both will see the field. It’s a big task for whoever starts under center, because Illinois didn’t get a great contribution from the running attack all season long and they’ll be going against a defense that ranked 16th nationally against the run (117.9 rush YPG allowed by LA Tech). Leading rusher Josh Ferguson only had one game where he exceeded 95 rushing yards as the team ranked 114th in rush YPG nationally.
Defensively the Illini weren’t great this season. Nine of 12 opponents scored 30+ points and they finished the season ranked 108th in scoring defense and 115th in yards per game allowed. Statistically LA Tech isn’t an offensive juggernaut (65th in yards per game), but the Bulldogs did average 45 PPG over the last five games – including a 76-point outburst in a win over Rice on November 29th. The offense is led by QB Cody Sokol, who tossed for 3,189 yards, 29 TD, and 13 INT in 2014. They also got a great contribution from RB Kenneth Dixon, who rushed for 1,236 yards (5.2 YPC) and 21 TD. Louisiana Tech has been one of the best teams to wager on this season, finishing with a 10-3 record against the spread. Their 76-31 win over Rice placed them in the Conference USA Championship game, where they nearly pulled off the upset win (L 23-26 to Marshall).
Louisiana Tech suspended six players before the Marshall game, including five starters, and it's unlikely they'll play in this bowl. Over the last four years, LA Tech is 3-6 SU and 8-1 ATS in games against Power Five conference teams, including a 52-24 win over Illinois in 2012. They covered games against Oklahoma and Auburn this season as a heavy underdog. LA Tech has covered both of its bowl appearances since 2008 while Illinois is 2-1 SU & ATS in three bowl appearances since 2007.
Rutgers (+3, 66) vs. North Carolina
Quick Lane Bowl
Friday, Dec. 26 – 4:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Ford Field, Detroit, MI
The destination isn’t quite as desirable as other bowl games, so motivation could play a factor for both sides here. Most media experts didn’t expect much from Rutgers before the season and a 7-5 finish and a trip to a bowl game is a bit of a success in itself, but the Scarlet Knights aren’t exactly “hot” coming into this game. They’ve dropped four of the last six, losing to Ohio State, Nebraska, Wisconsin, and Michigan State by a combined score of 44-180. They were able to close it out on a positive note, winning at Maryland 41-38. QB Gary Nova disappeared far too often in big games and was maddeningly inconsistent. In Rutgers’ five losses, Nova combined for 1 TD pass and 10 INT (19 TD and 2 INT in seven Rutgers victories). He doesn’t have much of a running attack to lean on, especially after starting RB Paul James went down with a knee injury in September. As a team, the Scarlet Knights rank 89th in rush YPG and the leading rusher, Desmon Peoples, has 447 yards (3.9 YPC) and 3 TD.
Luckily for the Scarlet Knights, North Carolina doesn’t boast a great defense. The Tar Heels rank 118th in yards per game allowed, 108th against the pass, 117th against the run, and 119th in scoring D. Eight of 12 opponents scored 35+ points, and three scored 50+ points. North Carolina looked like one of the nation’s worst team’s midway through the season as it struggled to a 2-4 record that included losses of 29 points to East Carolina, 25 points to Clemson, and 17 points to Virginia Tech. The Tar Heels righted the ship in the 2nd half of the season, finishing 4-2 with quality wins over Georgia Tech, Pittsburgh, and Duke. It ended with a dud in a 28-point loss to NC State, but a 6-6 campaign is more than most expected after the porous start that this team got off to. QB Marquise Williams is the player to watch here. He led the team in passing (2,875 yards), rushing (732 yards), and total touchdowns (32). Williams could lead this UNC offense to a big day against this Rutgers defense that has allowed 37+ points in five of the last six games.
The Scarlet Knights have dropped back-to-back bowl games, losing to Virginia Tech in 2012 and Notre Dame in 2013. North Carolina won the Belk Bowl last year and this will be their fifth bowl appearance in the last five years (were ineligible in 2012 despite an 8-4 finish). These two opponents have met four times since 2006. North Carolina is 3-1 SU in those four meetings, but Rutgers covered as the 9.5-point underdog in the last meeting in 2011.
Penn State (+2.5, 40) vs. Boston College
New Era Pinstripe Bowl
Saturday, Dec. 27 - 4:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY
If you like hard-hitting defenses, buckle your chin straps for this one. Two top-15 defenses meet in Yankee Stadium in a game where motivation is high for both sides. PSU is playing its first bowl game in three years after the NCAA lifted its postseason ban earlier this year. BC is searching for its first bowl win since 2007, aiming to end a four-game bowl losing skid. Penn State jumped out to a 4-0 start to 2014 that included quality wins over Central Florida and Rutgers. Things quickly went downhill as the Nittany Lions managed just two wins over the final eight games. QB Christian Hackenberg had just four touchdown passes and 10 INT’s over those eight games while completing less than 50% over that span. All of the blame can’t be on Hackenberg, however, as the PSU offensive line was one of the worst in the nation. PSU allowed a B1G-high 42 sacks while only averaging 103.6 rush YPG (120th nationally). Despite being so inept on offense, the defense was able to keep them in a number of games (four of their six losses were by seven points or fewer). The Nittany Lions rank 2nd in yards per game allowed, 10th against the pass, 1st against the rush, and 8th in scoring defense.
That defense will be put to the test against a Boston College offense that runs the ball very well. The Golden Eagles rank 15th in rush YPG, led by QB Tyler Murphy. Murphy set an ACC record for rushing yards by a quarterback with 1,079 and scored 10 rushing touchdowns. He wasn’t terribly effective through the air, finishing with 11 pass TD, 10 INT, and 56.9% completions. He also has solid contributors around him as RB’s Jon Hillman and Myles Willis combined for 1,152 rush yards and 14 TD.
These two used to meet every year, but since Penn State became a member of the B1G, they’ve met only twice (2003 & 2004). Boston College won both of those meetings. The Golden Eagles are 0-4 SU & 1-3 ATS in the last four bowl games, including a 19-42 loss to Arizona in the AdvoCare V100 Bowl last year. Penn State is 0-2 SU & ATS in their last two Bowl games (last win came in 2009 - 19-17 vs. LSU in the Capital One Bowl) and this will be their first bowl appearance since 2011.
Nebraska (+6.5, 62) vs. USC
National University Holiday Bowl
Saturday, Dec. 27 - 8:00 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Qualcomm Stadium, San Diego, CA
The Huskers, like Iowa, had a chance to win the B1G West with a couple of wins late in the season. Instead, they dropped back-to-back games to Wisconsin and Minnesota to fall out of the running. Nine wins wasn’t enough to save coach Bo Pelini, who was canned after the season. Interim coach Barney Cotton will serve as the head coach in the Holiday Bowl when Nebraska takes on USC. Nebraska will lean on its rushing attack behind stud RB Ameer Abdullah. Abdullah finished 2014 with 1,523 yards and 18 TD (also had 208 receiving yards and 3 receiving TD). Abdullah had a knee sprain that limited down the stretch (68.5 rush YPG over the final four weeks), but he expects to be fully healthy for this matchup on December 27th. If Abdullah can’t get going, then Nebraska will be in trouble because QB Armstrong hasn’t shown the ability to lead this offense through the air. Armstrong completed just 51.7% of his passes with 19 TD and 11 INT this year and disappeared in Nebraska’s biggest games – 38-of-80 passing for 186 pass YPG with 2 TD and 3 INT against ranked opponents this year.
USC hasn’t faced an offense as focused on running the football as Nebraska will be, mostly going against pass-first offenses in the Pac-12. However, of the five opponents that had the most rushing yards against USC this season, three of them came away with victories (UCLA, Utah, and Boston College). USC finished in fourth place in a crowded Pac-12 South where five teams finished 8-4 or better, and the Trojans were just a few plays away from a possible 11-1 finish (three losses by six points or fewer). USC has a terrific trio of offensive playmakers led by QB Cody Kessler, who finished with 36 TD passes and just 4 INT on 70.7% completions. Kessler’s favorite target, Nelson Agholor, caught 97 passes for 1,223 yards and 11 scores while RB Javorius Allen had a breakout campaign of 1,337 rush yards (5.3 YPC) and 9 rush TD. The Trojans scored 30+ points in eight of 12 games and ranked 27th nationally in points per game.
USC appears to have the coaching advantage here as Steve Sarkisian will appear in his first bowl game as head coach of the Trojans. His last bowl win came here in the Holiday Bowl in 2010, when he coached Washington to a victory over Nebraska, 19-7. The Huskers are 1-3 SU & ATS in their last four bowl games, the lone victory coming last year in the Gator Bowl against Georgia. USC will be playing its third consecutive bowl game and first against a B1G opponent since the 2008 Rose Bowl (Penn State). They won last year’s Las Vegas Bowl against Fresno State, 45-20, making them 4-1 SU & ATS in the last four bowl appearances.
Maryland (+14, 48) vs. Stanford
Foster Farms Bowl
Tuesday, Dec. 30 - 10:00 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, CA
Here we have another B1G team that didn’t exactly end the season with a bang. After starting 4-1 this year, the Terps limped to a 3-4 finish that included losses of 28 points (Ohio State), 45 points (Maryland), 22 points (Michigan State), and 3 points to “rival” Rutgers to end the season. Offensively this team lacked explosiveness all season long. QB CJ Brown finished with just 13 TD and 9 INT while completing 53.2% while also leading the team in rushing with a measly 569 yards (3.8 YPC) and 7 rush TD. Leading WR Stefon Diggs missed the final three games of the season with a lacerated kidney, but reports indicate that he will be ready for this game against Stanford.
Maryland will need all the help it can get on offense against this Cardinal defense that ranked 5th in yards allowed, 7th against the pass, 11th against the rush, and 2nd in scoring defense despite playing some of the most explosive Pac-12 offenses week-to-week. Only two opponents exceeded 20 points against Stanford this season (Oregon & Arizona State) as Stanford held the likes of USC, Notre Dame, Washington State, Cal, and UCLA to just 14.8 PPG. With that defensive prowess, it’s a bit of a surprise that Stanford finished 7-5. The main problem, obviously, was an inept offense. Much like Maryland, the Cardinal struggled to find explosive plays. QB Hogan finished with just 17 TD and 8 INT on the season while the leading rusher, RB Remound Wright, finished with just 552 yards (4.3 YPC) and 8 TD. They were able to find their stride a bit, notching 418 yards and 38 points against Cal and 436 yards and 31 points against UCLA over the final two weeks.
Looks like the oddsmakers expect Stanford’s offense to continue to roll here against a Terrapin defense that ranks 97th in YPG allowed and 83rd in PPG allowed; favoring the Cardinals by 14 points – making Maryland the largest underdog of the bowl season. Maryland has not fared well against other top defenses this season, scoring just 7 points against Wisconsin (4th in total defense) and 15 points against MSU (6th in total defense). Maryland is 4-2 ATS in their last six as a double-digit underdog.
This is just the third bowl appearance since 2008 for the Terps. They lost to Marshall as a 2-point underdog in the Military Bowl last year, 20-31. Stanford is 16-8 ATS in their last 24 as a double-digit underdog, including a 4-1 ATS mark this year. Motivation for the Cardinals is a discussion, considering Stanford has been to four straight BCS Bowls. They lost to Michigan State by four points in the Rose Bowl last year.
