Wednesday 09/09/09 service plays chatter/comps/requests & gm strategy...

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Hot Lines: Today's best MLB bets

Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals (+180, 8.5)

The Phillies are the defending World Series champions and have a six-game lead in the NL East. They also were just swept in a four-game series by the Houston Astros, which manager Charlie Manuel finds more relevant.

"I hear some of them (players) talk, some of them saying, 'We play better when we have to,' and stuff like that, like when there's more pressure," Manuel told the team's web site. "I find that hard to believe when I see us play how we played. ... That doesn't register with me.

"Last year is dead and gone, man."

The Phillies are scuffling with the bats, managing four runs or less in their last 13 games. They have some mound issues as well.

J.A. Happ missed Monday's start with a strained oblique muscle. And Cliff Lee is suddenly hittable, having allowed 12 earned runs and 19 hits - including four homers - in just eight innings over his last two starts, both losses. Lee had given up 13 earned runs in his previous 10 starts.

Pick: Washington


San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giants (-170, 8)

There are two trends tracking for the Giants - one that started just over a month ago and one that has lasted all season.

For most of the year, lefthander Barry Zito has had as much trouble finding consistency as he has had locating the plate. But he has been sharp at home lately, helping keep the Giants in the NL wild card race.

The Giants have won the last four home games started by Zito, who is 3-0 with a 2.16 ERA in those games. He is averaging 1.8 walks per nine innings in that span, well below his season ratio of 3.67.

San Francisco also is a solid 14-7 in home series finales, including a 4-2 mark in games started by Zito. Meanwhile, San Diego has lost nine of its last 10 games at Pac Bell Park.

Pick: San Francisco
 
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Streaking and Slumping Pitchers

Streaking

Scott Feldman (15-4, 3.62 ERA), Texas Rangers

Feldman has been on a great run this season, particularly on the road. Only four of his 15 wins have come in white uniforms and his home ERA is almost two full runs higher than his away.

Feldman had no answers for his road success after his latest win.

“There is really nothing to it,” Feldman told the Associated Press following the 5-1 win over the Orioles last week. “Just being the benefactor of playing on a good team. I do everything the same.”

The Rangers have won six of his last seven starts and the hurler has given up just one run in his last three outings. Keep in mind too, that 12 of the Rangers’ 32 wins have come with Feldman on the bump.

Bronson Arroyo (12-12, 4.23), Cincinnati Reds

You can get an upset stomach trying to follow this streaky hurler. His career has been filled with more up and down results than a kid on ritalin in a bouncy castle.

But over his last seven starts he owes a 1.89 ERA, he’s pitched at least seven innings each time out and the under is 4-2-1.

He might be worth a small play on the road against the Rockies on Wednesday.


Slumping

Kevin Hart (4-5, 4.67), Pittsburgh Pirates

We really didn’t want to pick on the Pirates – MLB teams do that enough as is. But with some many hot starters going today (Wandy Rodriguez, Jon Garland and Ian Snell to name a few that didn’t make the cut), we were left with few hurlers in dire times.

Hart fits the bill perfectly. He’s given up 24 runs (21 earned) in his last 28 innings and the Bucs have won just won of his last five starts.

Hart was disappointed following his last start - a 14-7 setback to the Cards.

“It’s one of those things where when we score six in the bottom of the inning, you’ve got to go out there and have a shutdown inning,” he told reporters. “These guys picked me up tonight, and I didn’t do the same.”
 
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Jim Feist

MLB | Sep 09
San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants Total
8 ov-125 at 5DIMES > 16h.
Free passes are a key to examine closely when looking at baseball totals. Pitchers who allow too many men on base via walks set themselves up for trouble -- and often high scoring tilts. In this game, Wade LeBlanc of San Diego has walked 10 batters in 16 innings, which explains a 6.06 ERA. Veteran Barry Zito of the Giants is a nibbler who is not afraid of walking too many, with 12 walks his last 3 starts (18 innings). Look for plenty of runs, play the Padres/Giants Over the total.
 
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Rob Vinciletti

MLB | Sep 09
Atlanta Braves vs. Houston Astros Total
7½ un+100 at 5DIMES > 21h.
On Wednesday the Bonus Play is on the under in the Atlanta at Houston game. The Braves have bright young righty T.Hanson going tonight. He has a solid 2.68 road era and takes on a light hitting Houston team tonight. The Astros counter with Wandy Rodriguez tonight. Rodriguez has been an excellent home pitcher again this year. He has a 1.60 home era and 2.25 over his last 3 starts. The Astros have gone under in his last three starts and 9 of his overall 13 home starts this year. In his lone home start vs the Braves he handled them rather easily allowing no earned runs over seven innings.
In the series heading into Tuesdays game, five of the six games have gone under the total. This one figures to be low scoring as well.
On Wednesday I have a Triple angle Power side that has a 100% angle involved. In night action the lead play is another solid totals play in the National league. For the Bonus Play take the under in the Atlanta at Houston game. RV.
 
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Vernon Croy

MLB | Sep 09
Atlanta Braves vs. Houston Astros Atlanta Braves
+115 at 5DIMES > 12h.
1* Take the Atlanta Braves on the Moneyline, We are getting very good value here with the Atlanta Braves Wednesday night who are 6-1 in their last 7 games as an underdog. The Braves are also 7-2 in their last 9 games against a lefty starter and they are hitting .281 as a team against left hand starters this season. Tommy Hanson (9-3, 3.07 ERA) has pitched solid on the road this season with an ERA of 2.68 over 8 starts and I look for him to have a solid start against the Astros Wednesday night since he has not faced them before. The Astros are just 1-4 in Wandy Rodriguez's (13-9, 2.82 ERA) last 5 starts when pitching with 4 days rest and he has struggled over 5 career starts against the Braves with an ERA of 5.93. Take the Atlanta Braves as my MLB Bonus Play for Wednesday night.
 
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JR O'Donnell

MLB | Sep 09
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona D-Backs Arizona D-Backs
-123 at 5DIMES > 14h.
 
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Rocky Atkinson

MLB | Sep 09
Atlanta Braves vs. Houston Astros Houston Astros
-130 at 5DIMES > 12h.
Atlanta @ Houston 8:05 PM EST
Play On: Houston (Hanson/Rodriguez) Listed

Atlanta is 1-5 their last 6 games overall after winning last night here in Houston. Houston has won 4 of their last 5 games overall. Houston bullpen has a 3.63 ERA at home this year. Wandy Rodriguez is 13-9 with a 2.82 ERA overall this year, 8-2 with a 1.60 ERA at home and has a 2.25 ERA his last 3 starts. Rodgriguez seems to always pitch extremely well in front of his home crowd. Rodriguez has won two of three decisions against Atlanta since 1997. Braves are 20-43 in their last 63 road games vs. a team with a losing record. Astros are 23-9 in their last 32 home games vs. a right-handed starter. Astros are 10-4 in their last 14 games as a favorite of -110 to -150. Astros are 40-19 in their last 59 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Astros are 13-3 in Rodriguezs last 16 home starts. We'll recommend a small play on Houston tonight! Thanks and good luck, Rocky
 
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MLB WRITE-UP

Wednesday, September 9

Hot Pitchers
-- Misch is 1-0, 1.93 in two starts for the Mets.
-- Cardinals are 11-1 in Wainwright's last 12 starts. Suppan is 1-0, 2.31 in his last couple starts.
-- Zito is 1-0, 1.48 in his last four starts. Leblanc is 1-0, 3.00 in his last two starts.
-- Hanson is 3-1, 2.67 in his last five starts. Rodriguez is 2-2, 1.93 in his last four starts.
-- Arroyo is 2-1, 1.17 in his last five starts. Colorado is 8-1 in Hammel's last nine home starts.
-- Haren is 1-0, 3.15 in his last three starts; he has 1.71 RA in his three starts against the Dodgers this season. Former D-Back Garland won his last three starts, with a 2.70 RA.

-- Feldman is 3-0, 0.47 in his last three starts.
-- Berken is 2-0, 3.38 in his last three starts.
-- Niemann is 3-0, 3.56 in his last seven starts.
-- Verlander is 4-1, 2.63 in his last five starts. Tejeda blanked Angels for 5.1 innings in his first '09 start.
-- Garcia has a 3.44 RA in his last three starts. A's won Cahill's last four starts (2-0, 2.52).
-- Weaver is 2-1, 1.98 in his last four starts. Snell is 4-0, 2.91 in his last four starts.

Cold Pitchers
-- Zambrano is 0-2, 6.08 in his last five starts.
-- Lee is 0-2, 13.50 in his last couple starts. Mock is 1-3, 6.41 in his last four starts.
-- Nolasco has 5.87 RA in his last three starts.

-- Carmona is 1-3, 5.28 in his last five starts.
-- Halladay is 1-3, 5.88 in his last four starts. Pavano is 1-3, 5.40 in his last five starts.
-- Chamberlain is 0-3, 8.57 in his last five starts.
-- Byrd has a 7.56 RA in his first two starts for Boston.

Hot Teams
-- Cubs won three of their last four games.
-- Cardinals won 15 of their last 19 games.
-- Marlins won five of their last six games.
-- Astros won four of their last five games.
-- Reds won seven of their last nine games. Rockies won seven of their last eight games.
-- Dodgers won six of their last seven road games.
-- Padres won 10 of their last 14 games. Giants won seven of their last nine home games.

-- Rangers won five of their last seven games.
-- Bronx won 21 of its last 28 games.
-- Red Sox won seven of their last eight home games.
-- Tigers won six of their last seven games.
-- White Sox won five of their last seven games.
-- Twins won seven of their last eleven road games.
-- Angels won four of their last five games.

Cold Teams
-- Phllies lost five of their last seven games. Nationals lost nine of their last ten games.
-- Pirates lost 11 of their last 12 games.
-- Mets lost 13 of their last 19 games.
-- Braves lost five of their last six games.
-- Brewers are 4-8 in their last twelve home games.
-- Arizona lost its last six games, outscored 38-18.

-- Orioles are 8-18 in their last 26 road games.
-- Indians lost eight of their last eleven games.
-- Rays lost their last seven games, allowing 40 runs.
-- Blue Jays lost nine of their last thirteen games.
-- Royals lost 13 of their last 19 games, but won last two.
-- Oakland is 1-4 in second game of road series if they won the opener.
-- Mariners are 4-8 in their last twelve road games.

Totals
-- 11 of Phillies' last 13 games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 7-2-1 in Cubs' last ten games.
-- Four of last six Florida games went over the total.
-- Seven of last nine Atlanta games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 7-2-1 in Cardinals' last ten road games.
-- Under is 11-3-2 in last sixteen Cincinnati road games.
-- Under is 7-1-3 in last eleven Arizona games.
-- Under is 8-2-1 in last eleven San Francisco games.

-- Seven of last nine Texas road games stayed under the total.
-- 11 of last 15 Bronx home games stayed under the total.
-- 11 of last 12 Minnesota games stayed under the total.
-- Eight of last ten Baltimore road games stayed under the total.
-- Seven of last eleven Detroit road games stayed under the total.
-- 11 of last 15 White Sox games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 11-6 in Seattle's last seventeen games.

Umpires
-- Chi-Pitt-- Four of last five Drake games stayed under the total.
-- StL-Mil-- Under is 11-5 in Holbrook's last sixteen games.
-- SD-SF-- Favorite won Barrett's last six games behind the plate.
-- Phil-Wsh-- Under is 8-2-1 in last eleven Kulpa games.
-- Fla-NY-- Seven of last nine Nelson games went over total.
-- Atl-Hst-- Five of last six Emmel games stayed under the total.
-- Cin-Col-- Under is 11-2-1 in last fourteen Kellogg games.
-- LA-Az-- Underdog won five of the last seven Wendelstedt games.

-- Tex-Clev-- Four of last five Hudson games stayed under the total.
-- Min-Tor-- Underdog won four of last six Nauert games.
-- TB-NY-- Underdog won eight of last eleven Culbreth games.
-- Balt-Bos-- Over is 6-2-1 in last nine Reilly games.
-- Det-KC-- Under is 5-2-2 in last nine Foster games.
-- A's-Chi-- 15 of last 20 Cuzzi games stayed under the total.
-- Sea-LA-- Under is 12-5-1 in last eighteen Miller games.
 
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Trend Report

12:05 PM
TEXAS vs. CLEVELAND
Texas is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Cleveland
Texas is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing Cleveland
Cleveland is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games
Cleveland is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games when playing Texas

12:35 PM
CHI CUBS vs. PITTSBURGH
Chi Cubs are 4-2 SU in their last 6 games on the road
Chi Cubs are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is 1-7 SU in their last 8 games when playing at home against Chi Cubs
Pittsburgh is 0-5 SU in their last 5 games when playing Chi Cubs

2:05 PM
ST. LOUIS vs. MILWAUKEE
St. Louis is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Milwaukee
St. Louis is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Milwaukee
Milwaukee is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
Milwaukee is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home

3:45 PM
SAN DIEGO vs. SAN FRANCISCO
San Diego is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games
San Diego is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing San Francisco
San Francisco is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games when playing at home against San Diego
San Francisco is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing San Diego

7:05 PM
PHILADELPHIA vs. WASHINGTON
Philadelphia is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Washington
Philadelphia is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Washington
Washington is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games at home
Washington is 1-9 SU in its last 10 games

7:05 PM
TAMPA BAY vs. NY YANKEES
Tampa Bay is 0-5 SU in their last 5 games when playing on the road against NY Yankees
Tampa Bay is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
NY Yankees are 11-2 SU in their last 13 games
NY Yankees are 7-1 SU in their last 8 games when playing Tampa Bay

7:07 PM
MINNESOTA vs. TORONTO
Minnesota is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
Minnesota is 2-13 SU in its last 15 games when playing Toronto
Toronto is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Minnesota
Toronto is 13-2 SU in its last 15 games when playing Minnesota

7:10 PM
BALTIMORE vs. BOSTON
Baltimore is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
Baltimore is 2-15 SU in its last 17 games when playing Boston
Boston is 12-1 SU in its last 13 games when playing at home against Baltimore
Boston is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home

7:10 PM
FLORIDA vs. NY METS
Florida is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Florida is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing NY Mets
NY Mets are 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Florida
NY Mets are 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Florida

8:00 PM
ATLANTA vs. HOUSTON
Atlanta is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
Atlanta is 4-10 SU in its last 14 games when playing on the road against Houston
Houston is 10-4 SU in its last 14 games when playing at home against Atlanta
Houston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

8:10 PM
DETROIT vs. KANSAS CITY
Detroit is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
Detroit is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Kansas City
Kansas City is 4-9 SU in its last 13 games when playing at home against Detroit
Kansas City is 6-19 SU in its last 25 games at home

8:11 PM
OAKLAND vs. CHI WHITE SOX
Oakland is 4-1 SU in their last 5 games when playing on the road against Chi White Sox
Oakland is 5-2 SU in their last 7 games when playing Chi White Sox
Chi White Sox are 5-2 SU in their last 7 games
Chi White Sox are 2-5 SU in their last 7 games when playing Oakland

8:40 PM
CINCINNATI vs. COLORADO
Cincinnati is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games
Cincinnati is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Colorado
Colorado is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Cincinnati
Colorado is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Cincinnati

9:40 PM
LA DODGERS vs. ARIZONA
LA Dodgers are 5-2 SU in their last 7 games when playing on the road against Arizona
LA Dodgers are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games when playing Arizona
Arizona is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games at home
Arizona is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games

10:05 PM
SEATTLE vs. LA ANGELS
Seattle is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games on the road
LA Angels are 4-2 SU in their last 6 games at home
LA Angels are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games
 

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CPAW: :howdy:

I asked this question several times, but never got an answer.

What ever happened to Steve McQueen? I used to really enjoy his posts.

Thx.
 
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Marc Lawrence MLB - Wednesday 9/9
Play On: Cincinnati w/Arroyo vs Hammel

Note: The Reds meet the Rockies in Game Three of their four-games series when Bronson Arroyo takes on Jason Hammel at Coors Field in Colorado. Despite being just 3-3 in his last six team starts, Arroyo has been super-sharp in those games with a 1.59 ERA. He also owns a 2.55 ERA in his last five road starts. After a hot start, Hammel has cooled down, going just 5-5 in his last 10 team starts. Considering his 6.75 ERA in his last three starts in September it appears he hits the wall just about this time of season. Back the steady serves of Arroyo and the Reds here tonight.
 
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CPAW: :howdy:

I asked this question several times, but never got an answer.

What ever happened to Steve McQueen? I used to really enjoy his posts.

Thx.

SM is around, he posts from time to time in the chatter section. If you want to contact him you can always PM him.
 
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Dave Cokin

(951) CHICAGO CUBS
(952) PITTSBURGH PIRATES
Take "(952) PITTSBURGH PIRATES"

The Pirates are just awful, but I lean their way today. Carlos Zambrano is clearly not right and the Cubbies are toast as far as the playoff race is concerned. I would imagine Pirates starter Hart would love to stick it to his former team. No chance of my making a big play on the pathetic Pirates, but they're worth a flyer at home dogs odds today.
 
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Dominic Fazzini

I pulled down a win on my complimentary selection Tuesday backing the Rangers against Cleveland in Game 1 of the teams' doubleheader. Now I'm turning to an underdog to claim another victory.

Athletics rookie Trevor Cahill (8-12, 4.66 ERA) has really improved as the season has progressed. The right-hander is 2-1 with a 2.81 ERA over his last five starts.

Cahill hasn't receive a decision in two starts against the White Sox this year, but he has a 3.09 ERA against them, allowing four runs and nine hits in 11 2/3 innings. He gave up two runs and six hits in six innings on Aug. 16 in his last start vs. Chicago, a 3-2 Oakland victory.

Freddy Garcia (1-2, 4.76 ERA) will be making his fifth start since being called up from Triple-A Charlotte on Aug. 18. The veteran right-hander has improved with each start, allowing one run and seven hits in six innings Friday against Boston, but his track record over the past three seasons is not good, as he is 3-8 with a 5.36 ERA.

Garcia is 6-6 with a 5.08 ERA in 19 career starts against the A's, and 1-1 with a 5.23 ERA in two home starts this year.

Oakland has won four straight games in Chicago this year, and scored seven runs in the first two innings Tuesday en route to an 11-3 victory. The White Sox have made it a habit of shooting themselves in the foot all season, and I think that trend continues today. Look for Cahill to make another strong start today and the underdog A's to gain the victory.
2♦ OAKLAND
 
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Karl Garrett

G-Man going to the junior circut for your Wednesday Bonus Play winner, as I like the White Sox to rebound from last night's pounding.

Trevor Cahill has found a little groove, as the righty is 2-0 over his last 3 starts with an ERA just over 2. The problem is, he is just 2-5 on the road this year with a 4.99 ERA.

Chicago has still won 5 of their last 7, while Oakland has now won their last 3, and are 4-1 this year on the south side of Chicago.

Freddy Garcia stops all of that nonsense, as Garcia is coming off 6 solid frames of 1 run ball in a home win over Boston. Look for Freddy to build on that positive start, and for the Pale Hose to cool off the A's in this meeting tonight.

Remember, even with last night's win, the Athletics are just 28-40 on the road for the season.

Lay the home wood, and go with the White Sox.
2? WHITE SOX
 
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Bobby Maxwell

Bonus Play winner on Tuesday as the Yankees got the ninth-inning walk-off homer from Nick Swisher to get me the comp play cash. Tonight I'm in the National League with a comp selection on the Marlins as they visit the Mets.

Florida ekked out the win on Tuesday night in New York and expect them to make this one look easy as they have righty Ricky Nolasco (10-8, 5.27 ERA) on the mound going up against lefty Patrick Misch (1-1, 3.25).

The Marlins have won six of Nolasco's last nine starts, including Thursday at home when he held the Braves to three runs in six innings of work in an 8-3 Florida win. He's faced the Mets twice this season, both back in April before the New York implosion and the onslaught of injuries hit them.

Misch makes his third start as a Met and this guy didn't have any luck with the Giants last season and not much in his first two this year with New York. The Giants lost his final eight starts with them and then even though he pitched well in his first outing with the Mets, they lost 5-2 to the Cubs.

New York has not been very good lately, and really all season. The Mets are on slides of 4-11 as underdogs, 5-18 against N.L. East teams, 1-5 as a home 'dog, 1-6 at home against teams with winning road records and 4-10 against right-handed starters.

Meanwhile, the Marlins are 11-5 in Nolasco's last 16 starts, 5-2 in his last seven on the road, 13-3 when he gets a full five days of rest, 33-15 as a favorite and 5-1 when they face N.L. East squads.

Florida isn't mathmatically eliminated from the postseason and they are still playing some decent baseball. New York hasn't played decent ball all season. Play the Marlins in the Big Apple tonight.
3? FLORIDA
 
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Sports Gambling Hotline

Comp play winner on the Cubs last night, now 31-15-3 the last 49 days with our comp plays.

How does the old saying go? If it ain't broke, you don't need to fix it?

Well, we are coming right back this Wednesday afternoon and playing the Cubs to once again handle the Pirates.

Pittsburgh has now lost 11 of their last 12 games, and they are now 1-4 at home this year against Chicago.

In fact, the Cubs are now 8-2 in the season series, and have won 25 of the last 31 series meetings against their division rivals.

As for the pitching matchup, Carlos Zambrano is 5-2 on the road this year, while rookie Kevin Hart has hit the skids, losing his last 3 starts while allowing 12 earned runs in 17 innings of work.

No doubt about it, the Cubs are the play in this matinee contest at PNC.

Play on Chicago.
5♦ CUBS
 

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John,

Be Happy, that we got the plays!

Will you ever respond to my email?
 

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