Wednesday 07/29/09 service plays chatter/comps/requests & gm strategy...

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Wednesday 07/29/09 service plays chatter/comps/requests & gm strategy...

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FYI, let's limit the comps to the first 2 pages, I need this thread to be used for chatter and what games members would like to pick up or split. Service thread getting way to much chatter. Ty.

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Lady Luck: Today's WNBA best bet

Los Angeles Sparks at Chicago Sky (-3, 145)

Is Candace Parker ready to be Candace Parker?

The reigning WNBA Rookie of the Year and MVP has had a tough time regaining her form. She began the season on the sidelines, recovering from giving birth to her first child. In five games since her return, she is averaging just 5.8 points and 5.2 rebounds.

Parker may be turning a corner, however. In her last game before the All-Star break, she had her first double-double with 10 points and 10 rebounds, adding six blocks and five assists in 48 minutes - all season highs - of an overtime loss at Seattle.

She also did not play in the All-Star Game, allowing her a couple of days to catch her breath and regroup for the second half.

Last year against Chicago, Parker averaged 13.0 points, 6.5 rebounds and 3.0 blocks as Los Angeles swept the two-game series.

Pick: Los Angeles
 
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WNBA LONG SHEET


Wednesday, July 29


LOS ANGELES (4 - 9) at CHICAGO (8 - 10) - 7/29/2009, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LOS ANGELES is 9-21 ATS (-14.1 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
LOS ANGELES is 8-20 ATS (-14.0 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 77+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.
CHICAGO is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) in all games this season.
CHICAGO is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) in May, June, or July games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 2-2 against the spread versus LOS ANGELES over the last 3 seasons
LOS ANGELES is 3-1 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
 
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Hot Lines: Today's best MLB bets

Detroit Tigers at Texas Rangers (+112, 8.5)

No team plays below the total more than the Detroit Tigers - except the Texas Rangers.

The total has been under in Detroit's last seven games, during which the Tigers are averaging 2.6 runs. Longer trends include 15 of the last 17 and 21 of the last 25.

Overall, the under is 61-35-2 in Detroit's games this season. That is the second-best mark, trailing only the 61-32-4 in games involving Texas.

Texas is averaging 3.6 runs in its last 12 games, and the under is 11-0-1 in that stretch. Since June 5, Rangers games have a 33-10-1 mark against the under.
The mound matchup of Justin Verlander and Scott Feldman pits starters who have not given up more than three earned runs since July 1.

Pick: Under


Toronto Blue Jays at Seattle Mariners (+165, 7.5)

One way or another, the Roy Halladay trade talk will be over by the weekend. For the Toronto Blue Jays, it can't end soon enough.

Since GM J.P. Ricciardi admitted he would listen to offers for Halladay on July 7, the Blue Jays have been in a funk, losing 10 of their last 16 games with three three-game slides.

During that span, Toronto is averaging 4.4 runs, but 39 of its 71 runs have come in four games. It has been held to three runs or less nine times and is 0-6 in one-run games.

Even the normally unflappable Halladay appears to have been affected. He has not pitched poorly, but is 1-1 in three starts since Ricciardi's declaration and again will be making another potential "last start for the Blue Jays."

Toronto is just 1-5 in Halladay's last six outings.

Pick: Seattle
 
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Streaking and Slumping Pitchers

Streaking

Matt Cain (San Francisco Giants)

In July, batters almost have been better off trying to work Cain for a walk rather than figuring out how to hit him.

The righthander has made five starts this month. Over 29 1-3 innings, he has given up just 20 hits and 11 walks.

“He’s really emerged, I think, as a terrific pitcher,” Giants manager Bruchy Bochy told the team’s web site. “He’s not trying to power his way through guys and he has great poise out there.”

Cain is 3-0 in his last five starts, allowing no more than one earned run in any of them. He also appears to be unaffected by the line drive he took off his elbow vs. San Diego on July 11.

John Lackey (Los Angeles Angels)

It has been a trying season for the veteran righthander, who spent the first six weeks on the disabled list and the next six trying to develop some consistency. He finally appears to have found it.

Lackey has won three straight starts for the first time in nearly a year, compiling a 1.52 ERA while beating CC Sabathia, red-hot Brett Anderson and Francisco Liriano.

The Angels have won five of Lackey's last six starts.


Debuting

Chris Tillman (Baltimore Orioles)

Tillman will be making his major league debut against the Kansas City Royals. The 21-year-old righthander also will be auditioning for the role of Baltimore’s fifth starter because Rich Hill and Jason Berken have pitched poorly of late.

Originally a 2006 second-round pick of Seattle, Hillman was acquired in the Erik Bedard trade, a heist that also included All-Star Adam Jones and closer George Sherrill. He was 11-4 with a 3.18 ERA for Double-A Bowie in 2008 and 8-6 with a 2.70 ERA for Triple-A Norfolk this year.

In the minors, Tillman was a strikeout pitcher, having rung up 253 in 232 1-3 innings since the start of the 2008 season. He has averaged better than a strikeout per inning at every stop in the minors.


Slumping

Aaron Harang (Cincinnati Reds)

The righthander has lost his last three starts, giving up 12 earned runs and 24 hits in 16 innings for a 6.75 ERA. He also has a 1.75 WHIP during that span.

But that doesn’t tell the whole story. Harang is winless in his last 11 starts since May 25, allowing 12 homers in 62 2-3 innings. He began the season by surrendering just seven homers in 64 1-3 innings.

Zack Greinke (Kansas City Royals)

If Greinke doesn’t win the AL Cy Young Award, he can lay the blame squarely on his teammates, who seem to lay down when he takes the mound and offer him little support.

Greinke has not pitched poorly in his last four starts. In fact, he has pitched rather well, allowing seven earned runs with 32 strikeouts in 26 innings. But the Royals have lost all four outings, and Greinke is 0-3 with a no-decision because he has received just three runs of support.

Under bettors have cashed in Greinke’s last six starts.
 
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MLB WRITE-UP

Wednesday, July 29

Hot Pitchers
-- Wells is 6-1, 3.63 in his last seven starts.
-- Cain is 3-0, 1.53 in his last five starts.
-- Johnson is 2-0, 2.30 in his last three starts. Kawakami is 1-1, 2.04 in his last three starts.
-- Santana has a 2.28 RA in his last four starts.
-- Parra is 1-0, 2.50 in his last three starts.
-- Kershaw is 5-0, 1.11 in his last eight starts. Pineiro is 3-0, 0.82 in his last three starts.
-- Happ is 3-1, 2.30 in his last six starts.

-- Angels won last three Lackey starts (2-0, 1.52). Laffey is 1-0, 2.07 in his last two starts.
-- Halladay has a 2.16 RA in his last three starts.
-- Chamberlain is 2-0, 1.32 in his last couple starts.
-- Anderson is 2-1, 1.36 in his last five starts.
-- Greinke is 0-3, 3.12 in his last four starts; Royals scored three runs in those four games.
-- Verlander is 2-1, 1.17 in his last three starts. Feldman is 4-1, 2.76 in his last five starts.

Cold Pitchers
-- Hampton is 1-2, 8.40 in his last three starts.
-- Duke is 1-4, 4.46 in his last five starts.
-- Harang is 0-5, 6.20 in his last seven starts. Latos is 1-1, 3.72 in his first two major league starts.
-- Mock is 0-2, 12.46 in his two starts this season.
-- Hammel is 0-2, 4.45 in his last five starts.
-- Petit is 0-5, 7.62 in nine starts this season.

-- Rowland-Smith is 0-1, 5.23 in two starts this season.
-- Garza is 1-2, 4.62 in his last four starts.
-- Prospect Tillman makes MLB debut for Orioles; he was 8-6, 2.70 in 18 starts at AAA Norfolk this season.
-- Penny is 1-1, 5.51 in his last three starts.
-- Colon is 0-2, 7.27 in his last three starts. Twins lost Liriano's last three starts (0-2, 8.10).

Hot Teams
-- Braves won six of their last nine games. Marlins won six of their last seven games.
-- Mets won their last four games. .
-- Nationals won six of their last eight games.
-- Cubs are 9-3 since the All-Star break.
-- Phillies won 19 of their last 22 games.
-- Cardinals won six of their last seven home games.
-- Giants won 12 of their last 15 home games.

-- Bronx won ten of its last twelve games.
-- Red Sox won eight of their last eleven home games.
-- Rangers won eight of their last nine games.
-- Twins won their last three games, allowing five runs.
-- Angels won 12 of their last 16 games. Indians won six of their last eight games.

Cold Teams
-- Reds lost 13 of their last 17 games. Padres lost 19 of their last 24.
-- Rockies lost three of their last four road games.
-- Brewers lost nine of their last twelve home games.
-- Dodgers lost four of their last five games.
-- Astros lost three of their last four games.
-- Arizona is 5-8 in its last thirteen games.
-- Pirates lost 12 of their last 14 road games.

-- Rays lost three of their last four home games.
-- Orioles lost nine of their last eleven games. Royals are 5-8 in their last thirteen road games.
-- Oakland lost 15 of its last 24 road games.
-- Tigers lost seven of their last eight road games.
-- White Sox lost nine of their last 11 road games.
-- Mariners are 4-7 in their last 11 home games. Toronto lost 12 of its last 15 road games.

Totals
-- Under is 12-3 in Atlanta's last fifteen road games.
-- Under is 11-5-1 in Cincinnati's last seventeen home games.
-- Seven of last ten Colorado road games stayed under the total.
-- Six of last seven Washington road games went over the total.
-- Under is 12-6-1 in Houston's last 19 road games.
-- Over is 9-3-1 in Dodgers' last thirteen road games.
-- Under is 4-0-1 in Happ's last five starts.
-- Under is 10-2-2 in Pirates' last fourteen road games.

-- Over is 8-4-1 in Bronx Bombers' last thirteen road games.
-- Under is 12-3-1 in Royals' last sixteen road games.
-- Under is 9-2-1 in last twelve Boston games.
-- Under is 10-0-3 in last thirteen Texas games.
-- 11 of last 12 White Sox games stayed under the total.
-- Over is 6-0-1 in Cleveland's last seven games.
-- Under is 11-4-1 in Toronto's last sixteen games.

Umpires
-- Atl-Fla-- Underdog won four of last six Hohn games.
-- SD-Cin-- Three of last four Barry games went over the total.
-- Colo-NY-- Seven of last eight Holbrook games stayed under total.
-- Wsh-Mil-- Favorite won seven of last eight Nauert games.
-- Hst-Cubs-- Underdog is 8-5 in last fourteen Davis games.
-- LA-StL-- Favorite won six of last seven Wegner games.
-- Phil-Az-- Last six Runge games stayed under the total.
-- Pitt-SF-- Road team won four of Scott's last five games.

-- Clev-LA-- Eight of last eleven Carlson games stayed under total.
-- Tor-Sea-- Four of last five Hoye games stayed under the total.
-- NY-TB-- Favorites won four of last five Eddings games.
-- KC-Balt-- Underdog won five of last seven Bell games.
-- A's-Bos-- Three of last four Culbreth games went over the total.
-- Det-Tex-- Seven of last ten Gibson games went over the total.
-- Chi-Min-- Underdog won six of last eight Layne games.
 
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Trend Report

2:20 PM
HOUSTON vs. CHI CUBS
Houston is 5-2 SU in their last 7 games when playing on the road against Chi Cubs
Houston is 4-2 SU in their last 6 games when playing Chi Cubs
Chi Cubs are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games
Chi Cubs are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games at home

3:35 PM
CLEVELAND vs. LA ANGELS
Cleveland is 2-4 SU in their last 6 games when playing on the road against LA Angels
Cleveland is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
LA Angels are 7-2 SU in their last 9 games at home
LA Angels are 9-2 SU in their last 11 games

3:45 PM
PITTSBURGH vs. SAN FRANCISCO
Pittsburgh is 16-7 SU in its last 23 games when playing San Francisco
Pittsburgh is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing San Francisco
San Francisco is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh
San Francisco is 6-12 SU in its last 18 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh

4:40 PM
TORONTO vs. SEATTLE
Toronto is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Seattle
Toronto is 8-17 SU in its last 25 games
Seattle is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home
Seattle is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games

7:05 PM
KANSAS CITY vs. BALTIMORE
Kansas City is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Baltimore
Kansas City is 4-9 SU in its last 13 games when playing on the road against Baltimore
Baltimore is 16-7 SU in its last 23 games when playing Kansas City
Baltimore is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Kansas City

7:08 PM
NY YANKEES vs. TAMPA BAY
NY Yankees are 10-2 SU in their last 12 games
NY Yankees are 9-4 SU in their last 13 games on the road
Tampa Bay is 15-4 SU in its last 19 games at home

7:10 PM
ATLANTA vs. FLORIDA
Atlanta is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Florida
Atlanta is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games
Florida is 11-4 SU in its last 15 games at home
Florida is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games

7:10 PM
COLORADO vs. NY METS
Colorado is 16-7 SU in its last 23 games on the road
Colorado is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing NY Mets
NY Mets are 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Colorado
NY Mets are 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Colorado

7:10 PM
OAKLAND vs. BOSTON
Oakland is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games when playing on the road against Boston
Oakland is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
Boston is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Oakland
Boston is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games at home

7:10 PM
SAN DIEGO vs. CINCINNATI
San Diego is 4-17 SU in its last 21 games
San Diego is 3-10 SU in its last 13 games on the road
Cincinnati is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing San Diego
Cincinnati is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games

8:05 PM
DETROIT vs. TEXAS
Detroit is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Detroit is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games when playing Texas
Texas is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Detroit
Texas is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games

8:05 PM
WASHINGTON vs. MILWAUKEE
Washington is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Milwaukee
Washington is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Milwaukee
Milwaukee is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games at home
Milwaukee is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games

8:10 PM
CHI WHITE SOX vs. MINNESOTA
Chi White Sox are 1-5 SU in their last 6 games when playing Minnesota
Chi White Sox are 1-6 SU in their last 7 games on the road
Minnesota is 8-1 SU in their last 9 games when playing at home against Chi White Sox
Minnesota is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home

8:15 PM
LA DODGERS vs. ST. LOUIS
LA Dodgers are 1-3-1 SU in their last 5 games
LA Dodgers are 1-3-1 SU in their last 5 games when playing St. Louis
St. Louis is 17-3-1 SU in their last 21 games when playing at home against LA Dodgers
St. Louis is 17-5-1 SU in their last 23 games when playing LA Dodgers

9:40 PM
PHILADELPHIA vs. ARIZONA
Philadelphia is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Arizona
Philadelphia is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Arizona is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
Arizona is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
 
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Dave Cokin

(979) CHICAGO WHITE SOX
(980) MINNESOTA TWINS
Take "(979) CHICAGO WHITE SOX"

The Metrodome continues to be a nightmare locale for the White Sox. But I am going to take a shot with the Chisox to salvage the finale of this series. Bartolo Colon looked okay in his first start back off his latest DL stint, and Francisco Liriano has just one home win all season. This game looks like a tossup to me, so I see some okay value in grabbing the decent road dogs odds with the White Sox.
 
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Jim Feist

(971) NEW YORK YANKEES
(972) TAMPA BAY RAYS
Take "Under"

Smoke gets in your eyes! Some bettors might be looking at two of the top three offenses in the majors meeting here, but the guys on the hill are throwing smoke and striking out batters. Joba Chamberlain of the Yankees has a 3.00 ERA his last three starts, fanning 18 in 18 innings. Matt Garza of the Rays has a 2.25 ERA against the Bronx Bombers this season and has fanned 21 his last 3 starts (20 innings). Look for a pitcher's duel and plenty of K cards, play the Yankees/Rays Under the total.
 
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Bob Harvey


Detroit Tigers @ Texas Rangers u8.5 (-110)
Wed Jul 29 '09 8:05p

The Detroit Tigers are on the verge of getting swept by the Rangers. Tonight they’ll look to Justin Verlander to prevent that from happening.

The Tigers have struggled offensively scoring just six runs in their last three games, all losses. That’s why the motowners will need another stellar effort from their ace Verlander is 11-5 on the year with a 3.12 ERA and a victory tonight would tie him with Boston’s Josh Beckett for the league lead in wins. If his last three starts are any indication, then he’s a good bet to get his 12th victory tonight. Verlander is 2-1 with a 0.78 ERA over that stretch including his third complete game of the season. The Tigers have won both of Verlander’s starts against the Rangers this season. He is 1-0 in those outings with a 1.64 ERA over 11 innings pitched, improving to 4-0 with a 1.16 ERA in his last five starts versus Texas.

In order to pitch the Tigers to victory in the series finale he’ll need to cool off a red hot Rangers team that has won four straight and has scored a total of 19 runs in their last three games. Hoping to match Verlander pitch for pitch will be Scott Feldman. He doesn’t get the headlines like a Verlander or Beckett but he’s one of the solid starters in the American Leauge. Feldman is 9-3, ERA is just 3.59 and he’s got an era of 2.48 over his last five starts. Feldman has no career decisions against the Tigers and has only faced them once as a starter. He’s also made five relief appearances giving up 10 runs in 14 innings.

The perception some people still have of Rangers is “Good Hit, No Pitching”. Well all that has changed since Nolan Ryan took over as President of the team. Texas has the 10th best team ERA in baseball at 4.16 with an even better bullpen that ranks seventh in the majors with a 3.77 ERA. This Rangers team is now built on pitching and defense and any offense is a plus. Texas is still in the mix of things in the AL West despite down years from Michael Young, Ian Kinsler and Josh Hamilton. Nelson Cruz is the one offensive exception with 24 homeruns on the season.

The Tigers have gotten by on the strength of their pitching staff which is ranked 8th in the majors despite an atrocious bullpen that ranks 22nd overall. Like Texas, Detroit isn’t going to beat you into submission. They’re going to rely on their starting pitching….just like today when Verlander takes the hill.
The Rangers are going for their first three-game home sweep of Detroit in seven years. But it will take another strong offensive effort to get it done against Verlander. Runs should be scarce in this one. Take the under with a lean towards the Tigers.
 
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Big Al McMordie

MLB | Jul 29
Cleveland Indians vs. LAA Angels Total
9½ ov+100 at JAMAICA > 8h.
At 3:35pm our complimentary selection is on the Cleveland Indians and Los Angeles Angels 'over' the total. Whatever the hitters on the Indians have been drinking on the road lately, as long as it's not illegal, the team must feel like there's hopefully more from wherever it came from. In every game of this current road trip except the first one, the Tribe has scored at least five runs and they've scored a total of 58 runs in the first eight games heading into this ninth, and final game of their road trek. Today's starter for Cleveland, righthander Aaron Laffey must be feeling pretty good as he just came off of his best start of the season and he's no doubt noticed how many runs his offense has been scoring lately. Still, heading into Southern Cal to play arguably the best team in the American League can be a daunting task, and it's not like Laffey has a history of success against this team as in two career starts he is 0-1 with a 9.00 ERA. That includes the final game of the 2008 season, also played in Anaheim, where Laffey's opposing pitcher was the same as it is this afternoon: veteran righthander John Lackey. The balls were flying everywhere in that one, as L.A. finally prevailed by a 14-11 margin. Lackey's actually been worse at home this season than on the road, and while it's unlikely these two teams will score 25 runs this afternoon, considering the over is 19-5-1 in the Angels last 25 home games, it could get a little crazy. Take the 'over.' As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
 
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Craig Trapp

MLB | Jul 29
Detroit Tigers vs. Texas Rangers Total
8½ un-110 at SPBOOK > 13h.

DET/TEX under 8.5: DET and TEX have both been two of the best under teeams on the season. Detroit has gone Under is 21-7 last 28 road games and Texas is under 8 of last 10 games! Texas has been winning games but not by scoring a ton of runs and today they will struggle against ace Verlander for DET. Verlander has only given up 2 runs in last 23 runs. Good thing for TEX is they have a very tough piture Feldman who has only given up 6 runs in last 4 starts in over 26 innings. Detroit has struggled scoring runs lately only scoring over 3 runs in last 10 games. Not sure if this one gets above 4 runs between these teams. UNDER 8.5 is the play!
 

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Craig Trapp

MLB | Jul 29
Detroit Tigers vs. Texas Rangers Total
8½ under-110 at SPBOOK > 13h.

DET/TEX under 8.5: DET and TEX have both been two of the best under teeams on the season. Detroit has gone Under is 21-7 last 28 road games and Texas is under 8 of last 10 games! Texas has been winning games but not by scoring a ton of runs and today they will struggle against ace Verlander for DET. Verlander has only given up 2 runs in last 23 runs. Good thing for TEX is they have a very tough piture Feldman who has only given up 6 runs in last 4 starts in over 26 innings. Detroit has struggled scoring runs lately only scoring over 3 runs in last 10 games. Not sure if this one gets above 4 runs between these teams. UNDER 8.5 is the play!
 

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Hot Lines: Today's best MLB bets

Detroit Tigers at Texas Rangers (+112, 8.5)

No team plays below the total more than the Detroit Tigers - except the Texas Rangers.

The total has been under in Detroit's last seven games, during which the Tigers are averaging 2.6 runs. Longer trends include 15 of the last 17 and 21 of the last 25.

Overall, the under is 61-35-2 in Detroit's games this season. That is the second-best mark, trailing only the 61-32-4 in games involving Texas.

Texas is averaging 3.6 runs in its last 12 games, and the under is 11-0-1 in that stretch. Since June 5, Rangers games have a 33-10-1 mark against the under.
The mound matchup of Justin Verlander and Scott Feldman pits starters who have not given up more than three earned runs since July 1.

Pick: Under


Toronto Blue Jays at Seattle Mariners (+165, 7.5)

One way or another, the Roy Halladay trade talk will be over by the weekend. For the Toronto Blue Jays, it can't end soon enough.

Since GM J.P. Ricciardi admitted he would listen to offers for Halladay on July 7, the Blue Jays have been in a funk, losing 10 of their last 16 games with three three-game slides.

During that span, Toronto is averaging 4.4 runs, but 39 of its 71 runs have come in four games. It has been held to three runs or less nine times and is 0-6 in one-run games.

Even the normally unflappable Halladay appears to have been affected. He has not pitched poorly, but is 1-1 in three starts since Ricciardi's declaration and again will be making another potential "last start for the Blue Jays."

Toronto is just 1-5 in Halladay's last six outings.

Pick: Seattle
 

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Razor Sharp

FREE PICK FOR WEDNESDAY:

Take NY METS (Santana) -145 over Colorado

think this is one of Bonus Plays ok to post here
 

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