Wednesday's Early Action
June 30, 2009
By Judd Hall
VegasInsider
July starts off with a bang for bettors with 15 games on Wednesday. And three of those matches will have kicked off by 1:35 p.m. EDT. The Marlins take to the field early as they continue to chase Philadelphia in the National League east. Meanwhile, the Rays finish up their series in Toronto. Both of those clubs are trying to catch up with the Red Sox, who are also playing early.
Nationals at Marlins – 12:10 p.m. EDT
It’s always a good thing to play a lousy team when you’re trying to make up ground in a divisional race. That’s exactly what Florida is doing as they close out its series against the Nationals from Landshark Stadium.
The Marlins needed this matchup to rebound from a sweep in Tampa Bay over the weekend…particularly Hanley Ramirez. Florida’s sure fire All-Star went 1-for-13 against the Rays. In the Fish’s series opening 4-2 win, Ramirez was 3-for-4 with a run batted in. We shouldn’t expect anything less from him as he has a lifetime .338 batting average, 38 RBI and 15 home runs against Washington.
Florida will need Ramirez to keep plugging away against Jordan Zimmermann (3-3, 4.65 ERA). You’d expect that to happen since the Nats’ pitching staff is next to last in team earned run average (5.22) and walks allowed (307). Yet Zimmermann has been performed admirably as of late. The Nationals have won his last two starts and he has a 1.57 ERA in his past three nods.
Zimmermann knows that he’s got a decent offense to support him. The Nats are hitting .258 with 71 homers this season. Ryan Zimmerman has a .346 batting average with a .577 slugging percentage over the last week. And Josh Willingham is hitting .440 with three RBI in his last seven games.
As good as things might seem for the Nationals at the plate, they’ll have to step up their game against Florida’s Josh Johnson (7-1, 2.76 ERA). The Marlins’ ace has been everything you want in a starter. He’s been eating innings up (averaging 7.1 innings per start since May 24) and he’s striking out the opposition (strikeout to walk ratio of 3:1 since May 24). Plus, Johnson is 4-0 with a 3.49 ERA in six starts against Washington.
It’s that quality from Johnson that has Las Vegas Sports Consultants installing Florida as a heavy $1.75 home “chalk” with a total of 7 ½.
This series has been dominated by the Marlins in 2009 with the Fish going 7-0. The ‘over’ has been a smart play here as it is 5-2 during the season. However, an ‘under’ wager still works despite the low total when considering how both Johnson and Zimmermann have been pitching.
Rays at Blue Jays – 1:05 p.m. EDT
It took a while for Tampa Bay to find its groove this season, but they’re clicking right now. The Rays have won 13 of their last 17 games to get back into the thick of the AL East. No team is hitting better than Tampa Bay over the last week with a .298 batting average, seven four-baggers and 36 RBI.
Carl Crawford has come alive at the plate in his last seven games by hitting .444 with one homer and five RBI to go along with three stolen bases. B.J. Upton is also stepping up with a .320 average, six RBI and three steals. That duo has helped the Rays average just over six runs per game.
If Tampa Bay can give James Shields (6-5, 3.41 ERA) some run support on Wednesday, then he’ll have a good day. “Big Game James” is starting to get rolling as the Rays have won five of his last six starts…a great rebound from his 0-4 run that he had in May. During his hot streak, James is averaging just under seven innings per start with an ERA of 3.07.
While the Rays are rising up the standings, Toronto is making a descent. The Blue Jays have dropped six of their last 10 games, which includes an inexcusable three-game sweep at the hands of MLB doormat Washington.
You can definitely say that the Jays’ batters aren’t seeing the ball too well as they’re hitting a combined .178 over their last three games. During this slump, Toronto is leaving just over nine runners on base.
As bad as their hitting has been, it seems to perk up when Rickey Romero (5-3, 3.20 ERA) takes the mound. The Jays definitely respond with him on the mound as they are 4-1 in his last five starts. Also, Romero is 4-1 with a 2.90 ERA in the five games he’s started at Rogers Centre during the 2009 campaign.
Despite the strong numbers for Romero, the Rays have been installed as $1.17 road favorites with a total of 8 ½.
That line has to be set on experience…or lack thereof. This will be Romero’s first career start against the defending AL champions. Shields, on the other hand, will be making his ninth start against the Blue Jays. Tampa Bay’s hurler is 4-2 with a 3.07 ERA in those contests. But the Rays have lost both starts that Shields has had in stadium formerly known as SkyDome.
Keep a close eye on the ‘under’ for this contest as it is 7-2 in the last nine head-to-head meetings. It also lends credence to the fact that the ‘under’ is 4-0 run in the last four tilts that Mike Eastbrook was calling balls and strikes.
Red Sox at Orioles – 1:35 p.m. EDT
You know you’re having a good season when you’ve lost two of your last six games and people consider that a slump. Boston boasts the best record in the American League thanks to being in the Top 10 in team batting (.268) and team pitching (4.02 ERA). If there is anything you can say is a negative is that Kevin Youkilis’ batting average went down 91 points. Yeah, he’s hitting just .313 instead of the .404 average he had at the end of last month.
Boston will look to lock up another “W” when Josh Beckett (9-3, 3.48 ERA) toes the slab on Wednesday afternoon. Beckett has had a fantastic June, going 4-1 with a 1.53 ERA. And he didn’t allow a single earned run in those victories.
The only chink in Beckett’s armor is that he’s only 2-2 with a 5.81 ERA in the daytime this year. That shouldn’t make anyone worry since he’s 33-16 with a 3.86 ERA for his career when Beckett pitches under the Sun.
There is no value in taking the BoSox as far as bettors are concerned here as LVSC has made them $1.60 road favorites with a total of nine.
So does that mean it’s a good time to take the Orioles for a plus-150 return (risk $100 to win $150)? Taking Baltimore is probably not a good idea.
Baltimore is just 10-17 against teams from the AL East this year. And they tend to wilt even more when facing the top pitchers of divisional opponents. This is a club that had five meaningless singles against Jon Lester on Monday night. Also, the Orioles are hitting just .213 with one homer and 14 total runs scored against Boston…that’s the worst they hit against AL East club.
For the O’s to win on Wednesday, they’ll need a Herculean effort out of Brad Bergesen (5-2, 3.76 ERA). And if anyone on Baltimore’s staff could win, it would be him. The Orioles have won five of Bergesen’s last six starts. Even better for gamblers is that the O’s have won the last two games where Bergesen was listed as an underdog (June 14 vs. Atlanta, June 20 at Philadelphia).
Now it’s not going to be an easy task for Baltimore to come out on top here…after all, the Red Sox have won eight straight against them. Something else to look at is Boston has covered the run line in six of those eight wins.